An Assessment of Convective Initiation Nowcasting Algorithm within 0-60 Minutes using Himawari-8 Satellite

Convective cloud monitoring since its growth stage primarily related to location and time of the first convective cloud initiated, called convective initiation (CI), could be the primary key in providing an earlier heavy rainfall event prediction. This study aimed to assess the accuracy and lead time of CI nowcasting using Satellite Convection Analysis and Tracking (SATCAST) algorithm in predicting the CI event within 0-60 minutes over Surabaya and surrounding area using Himawari-8 satellite during June-July-August (JJA) period in 2018. Three main processes used in this study were cloud masking, cloud object tracking, and CI nowcasting. Twelve interest fields were utilized as predictors based on six bands of Himawari-8 satellite, which represented cloud physics attributes such as cloud-top height, glaciation, or cooling rate. The verification was conducted by comparing CI prediction to CI location and time based on Surabaya weather radar within the next 0-60 minutes. The algorithm resulted that the prediction could achieve 87.3% of accuracy from the 3449 cloud objects. The prediction had POD, FAR, and CSI scores of 57.1%, 52.2%, and 35.2%, respectively. The 32.3 minutes of averaged lead time prediction indicated that CI nowcasting could detect growing cumulus about 30 minutes prior to the CI event.

Chemometrics, Health Risk Assessment and Probable Sources of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Atmospheric Rainwater in Rivers State, Nigeria.

Total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs)-(aliphatic and aromatic) were analysed for in atmospheric rainwater between April- June; July – August; September–October depicting early, mid, late rain of 2019. Sampling at Rumuodomaya/ Rumuodome and Ogale in Rivers State using basins fastened to a table 2 M above ground and 120 M from high features, Rainwater was analysed after treatment using Agilent GC-FID. Results show cumulative TPHs at R/R were 56.6551mg/L, 39.5201mg/L and 7.2283mg/L, Ogale: 9.1217mg/L, 59.4923mg/L and 21.9825mg/L. Aliphatic hydrocarbons: C5 – C8 were < 1, low contamination, other carbon aggregates (C9 – C16, C17– C35, and C36 – C40) indicate high contamination. Chemometric assessment showed high contamination. TPHs aggregates at Rumuodomaya/ Rumuodome were- C8 – C11 (1.034 and 1.005) early rain, C18 – C25 and C26 – C33 has Carbon preference index of 1.287 and 1.630 (mid-rain), C26 – C33 has CPI of 1.288 (late-rain), Ogale area, C26–C33 has CPI of 1.732 (early-rain), mid-rain C8 – C11 (2.768) and C12–C17 (5.368). Pristane/phytane ratio indicated biogenic and pyrogenic sources. Average carbon length of TPHs for odd n-alkanes were C9 – C11 (9.446) and C35 – C39 (38.980), C9 – C11(10.238), C35 – C39 (36.510); C9 – C11 (10.240) and C35 – C39 (36.934). Average daily intake depicted possible health issues for children and adults as hazard index > 1 for aromatics.

Detection of abrupt shift and non-parametric analyses of trends in runoff time series in Dez River Basin

The present study aims to investigate the homogeneity of runoff time series and also to review the existence of trends in Tale Zang hydrometric station (the hydrometric station in the entrance of Dez Reservoir) runoff, using 61 years (1956–2016) daily observatory data. Pettit test, which is a common method in investigating the homogeneity of time series, was used to identify change points. Both Mann-Kendall and auto-correlated Mann-Kendall tests were applied to analyze the existence or non-existence of trends in each annual, seasonal, and monthly time series observed in a runoff. In time series, significant trends in 95% level of confidence were recognized, upper and lower limit values were presented for Sen's slope and it was tested for the increasing or decreasing trends in nature. Based on the results of this study, the significant change point in 95% level of confidence was recognized in Annual, Spring, Summer, Autumn, March, May, June, July, August, September, and October in 1997,1997, 1999, 1997, 1999, 1999, 1999, 1997, 2000, 2007, 2008, respectively. Analyzing the existence of a trend in 95% level of confidence indicated that in Spring, and in March, September, and October, for both Mann-Kendall and auto-correlated Mann-Kendall tests, the trend is significant and additive until the change point.

Analyzing Trends in Rainfall and Their Impacts in Water Management in a Cerrado Region in Brazil

This study presents a trend analysis related to a Cerrado Region in Brazil surrounded by multiple climatic influences and which lived a recent water crisis (2016-2018). This crisis could be associated with climatic changes or population growth. To verify the first possibility, an analysis was performed on a series of rainfall data (21 rain gauges spread throughout the region) divided by season periods (December/January/February – DJF, March/April/May – MAM, June/July/August – JJA, September/October/November – SON, and Water Year – WY) to provide information about the presence of trends or lack thereof. Four statistics tests were used in this procedure: Cox-Stuart, Mann-Kendall, Spearman, and Wald-Wolfowitz. The overall results indicate that the percentage of gauges/periods displaying trends by the Mann-Kendall was 10.48%, Cox-Stuart 9.52%, Spearman 12.38, and Wald-Wolfowitz 8.57%. Of these gauges/periods, 70% were classified as highly skewed, 10% as moderately skewed, and 20% as symmetric. Most of the trends are concentrated in the JJA period where it registered about 22 mm of rainfall average while the annual mean total precipitation is ~1500 mm.

Analisis Efisiensi Perbankan Syariah Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Menggunakan Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)

This study aims to determine the efficiency of Islamic banking in the face of a pandemic at BRI Syariah, BJB Syariah, BCA Syariah and Bank Syariah Bukopin. This study uses quantitative data using secondary data from the monthly financial reports of Islamic banks for 2020 at BRI Syariah, BJB Syariah, BCA Syariah and Bank Syariah Bukopin. This study uses Data Envelopement Analysis (DEA). The variables in this study use the input variables of capital, assets, labor costs and output variables of musyarakah financing, mudharabah financing and distribution of income. The results showed that some banks initially experienced 100% efficiency and during the pandemic experienced inefficiency or experienced a decrease in efficiency. BRI Syariah must experience a decrease in efficiency (inefficiency) after the pandemic in June, July, August 2020 and November 2020 with the CRS model and the June-August 2020 VRS model. The lowest point for BRI Syariah for the CRS model is 98.70% and for the VRS model it is 99.10%. BJB Syariah must experience a decrease in efficiency (inefficiency) due to the pandemic in April 2020, decreased in the CRS in April 2020 and the VRS Model from August 2020 to November 2020. The lowest point for BJB Syariah for the CRS model is 97.00% and for VRS model at 97.80%. BCA Syariah from April 2020 to September 2020, for CRS and VRS models, it is known that there is a reduction in performance (inefficiency) from the target that should have been achieved. The lowest point for the BCA Syariah for the CRS model is 94.80% and for the VRS model it is at 95.50%. March 2020 to November 2020 Bank Syariah Bukopin CRS and VRS models were ineffective due to the pandemic. Bank Syariah Bukopin's lowest point for the CRS model is at 95.50% and for the VRS model at 95.60%.

Seasonal dynamics of gastrointestinal strongylatosis in the European bison

The purpose of the research is studying seasonal dynamics of gastrointestinal strongylatosis in bison in the Central Region of the Russian Federation.Materials and methods. The bison of different age and sex was studied in the Prioksko-Terrasny Nature Reserve, the Moscow Region. Fresh feces collected near feed troughs in enclosures in different seasons for three years were examined according to generally accepted methods. To analyze the infection rate of gastrointestinal strongylates in the European bison by months throughout the year, we took average monthly temperature and humidity values for 2018, 2019, and 2020 into account.Results and discussion. The maximum number of positive samples was diagnosed in the warm season of the year, namely, in summer and in the first months of autumn: August, September and October 2018 (79.3, 83.3 and 82.9%), August, October, November and December 2019 (73.7, 76.9, 77.1 and 77.8%), and June, July, August and October 2020 (85.6, 87.2, 88.0 and 86.3%). Ambient temperatures and precipitations affect significantly on the time of larvae development in the environment, which can be clearly seen in 2019.

RESPON CURAH HUJAN DIURNAL TERHADAP MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AKTIF DI BENUA MARITIM BERBASIS GSMAP GAUGE-CALIBRATED V7

Intisari Keberadaan pergeseran puncak curah hujan diurnal (DR) terhadap Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) aktif di Maritime Continent (MC) masih diperdebatkan sehingga studi ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi perubahan tersebut. Selain itu, intensitas rata-rata dan amplitudo DR juga dikaji dalam penelitian ini berbasis GSMaP Gauge-Calibrated V7. Komposit anomali intensitas rata-rata (Ra), amplitudo (Rax) DR MJO aktif dan perbandingan fase puncak DR MJO aktif terhadap klimatologinya (Pax-Pm) pada periode Desember-Januari-Februari (DJF), Maret-April-Mei (MAM), Juni-Juli-Agustus (JJA) dan September-Oktober-November (SON) digunakan dalam tulisan ini dengan uji-z 80%. MJO aktif berbasis rekonstruksi outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) dari kedua indeks realtime multivariate MJO (RMM). Hasil memperlihatkan bahwa MJO aktif memodulasi peningkatan intensitas rata-rata dan amplitudo DR di lautan dan mempengaruhi pergeseran puncak DR menjadi lebih cepat 1 jam dari klimatologi musimannya. Abstract The occurrence of peak phase shift of diurnal rainfall (DR) to active Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) has been debatable, so this study is aimed to investigate the change. Moreover, the mean and amplitude intensity of DR were also analyzed in this study based on GSMaP Gauge-Calibrated V7. The composite of the mean (Ra) and amplitude (Rax) intensity anomaly of DR, and the comparison of DR peak phase during the active MJO to its climatology (Pax-Pm) in the period December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM), June-July-August (JJA), and September-October-November (SON) were used in the study with the z-test of 80%. The active MJO was based on reconstructed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) of two real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indexes. The results showed that active MJO modulated the increased mean and amplitude intensity of DR over the ocean and influenced the DR peak phase shift to be faster than its seasonal climatology by one hour.

Evaluating the Temperature of Incoming Raw Milk at a Dairy Processing Plant

Ensuring stringent temperature control parameters and efficient cooling mechanisms are maintained at a dairy plant are critical to downstream processing capabilities and product quality. This study examined the temperature of incoming raw milk across three production months (June, July, August 2018), to capture peak season processing at one dairy manufacturing plant. A total of n=4,236 data points across three milk intake bays were analysed.Across the study area, the average temperature of incoming milk was 6.18°C (1.54 Standard Deviation (SD)). After the initial cooling step in the dairy facility, the average temperature of stored

Significant seasonal variations in the rate of women diagnosed with gestational diabetes: A observational single centre study of 28,128 women

Objective To test the hypothesis that there is seasonal variation in the rates of gestational diabetes (GDM) diagnosed using a 2 hour oral glucose tolerance test. Design Monthly assessment of the percentage of women screened from 1st April 2016 to the 31st December 2020 who were diagnosed as having gestational diabetes Setting London Teaching Hospital Population 28,128 women receiving antenatal care between April 1st 2016 and 31 December 2020. Methods Retrospective study of prospectively collected data. Main Outcome Measures Proportion of women screened diagnosed as having gestational diabetes. Results The mean (SD) percentage of women diagnosed with GDM was 14.78 (2.24) in summer (June, July, August) compared with 11.23 (1.62) in winter (p < 0.001), 12.13 (1.94) in spring (p = 0.002), and 11.88 (2.67) in autumn (p = 0.003). There was a highly significant positive correlation of the percentage testing positive for GDM with the mean maximum monthly temperature (R2 = 0.248, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant 33.8% increase in the proportion of GDM diagnoses from June 2020 onwards, possibly related to a reduction in exercise secondary to the Covid-19 pandemic. Conclusions There is a 23.3% higher rate of GDM diagnoses in the warmer summer months. There has been a 33.8% rise in GDM diagnoses associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.

THE EFFECT OF TIME OF INITIAL CUTTING ON FORAGE YIELD AND QUALITY OF THREE PASTURE GRASSES AT SHIKA, NIGERIA

The effect of time of cutting on yield and nutritive value of three year old pastures of signal (Brachiaria decumbens), green panic (Panicum maximum var. trichoglume) and buffel (Cenchrus ciliaris ev. Gayndah) grasses were studied. The pastures were harvested for hay yield on 5th November, 1977 and allowed to rest until subjection to initial cut in June, July, August or September, 1978. Immediately after the July cut, all the plots received 100kg N/ha and 40kg P205/ha. Regrowths from the initial cuts and the control (uninterrupted growth) were all cut on 16th November, 1978. The dry matter (DM) yields of the grasses increased with increasing stage of maturity. Signal grass was more productive (P < 0.05) (17.3t/ha) than the other grasses averaged over the cutting dates. The yields of green panic and buffel grasses were 8.3 and 11.0t/ha respectively. The regrowth DM yields declined with a delay in the initial cut. Except for the increases in CP (6.9%) and IVDMD (50.1%) contents of the primary growth in August, these parameters declined as the grasses aged. Deferring the initial cutting date resulted in significant (P < 0.05) increases in CP and IVDMD contents of the regrowths. Percent increases as a result of cutting at the different date over the control for DM and CP yield were 28 and 74, respectively. Further evaluation of the three species in grazing trial is suggested.