Great Expectations: The Case of the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant

As extreme dependence of Belarus’s economy on Russian hydrocarbons poses a national security threat, the Belarusian Government decided to mitigate this challenge by constructing a nuclear power plant (NPP) that will cover two fifths of the domestic electricity demand and contribute to increased excess electricity generating capacity for export to the EU. This article assesses a combination of diplomacy and domestic adjustments to develop four scenarios representing the most feasible mechanisms to address the challenges associated with this excess capacity. Having evaluated each scenario’s advantages, drawbacks, costs, and probability, it concludes that, in the current political and diplomatic environment, Belarus will have to consume all its NPP’s energy domestically. This, in its turn, will necessitate significant economic adjustment.