Predictor Importance in Future and Concurrent Predictions of Oral Reading Fluency
Background: Reading fluency is an important aspect of reading, yet little is known about what contributes to individual differences in reading fluency. The present study employs the use of dominance analysis to examine predictor importance in the prediction of 1st and 3rd grade oral reading fluency (ORF) from 1st grade reading related measures.Methods: Data from 312 children were collected in 1st grade on Sight Word Efficiency (SWE), Phonemic Decoding Efficiency (PDE), word identification (WID), word attack (WA), elision, sound matching, rapid letter naming (RLN), listening comprehension (LC), oral vocabulary, Dynamic Assessment CVCE score, Dynamic Assessment CVC score and ORF as well as ORF in 3rd grade. The relative importance of these measures in the prediction of concurrent and future ORF was examined using dominance analysis.Results: Results revealed SWE to be the most important predictor in the prediction of 1st grade ORF, achieving complete dominance over all other variables examined here. However, in the prediction of 3rd grade ORF, WID was the most important predictor, achieving some type of dominance over all other variables including conditional dominance over SWE. Conclusion: Word reading provided the most to the prediction of ORF with timed favored in the 1st grade model and untimed favored in the 3rd grade model. Implications for screening are discussed.