scholarly journals Historical and paleoflood analyses for probabilistic flood-hazard assessments—Approaches and review guidelines

10.3133/tm4b6 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tessa M. Harden ◽  
Karen R. Ryberg ◽  
Jim E. O'Connor ◽  
Jonathan M. Friedman ◽  
Julie E. Kiang
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessments

scholarly journals Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SA Stephens ◽  
RG Bell ◽  
Judith Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Adaptive Planning ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Hazard Assessments

© 2017 by the authors. Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.

scholarly journals Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SA Stephens ◽  
RG Bell ◽  
Judith Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Adaptive Planning ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Hazard Assessments

© 2017 by the authors. Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.

scholarly journals Flood hazard and change impact assessments may profit from rethinking model calibration strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela I. Brunner ◽  
Lieke A. Melsen ◽  
Andrew W. Wood ◽  
Oldrich Rakovec ◽  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Calibration ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Flood Characteristics ◽  
Flood Flow

Abstract. Floods cause large damages, especially if they affect large regions. Assessments of current, local and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. However, uncertainties in simulated floods can be considerable and yield unreliable hazard and climate change impact assessments. A reliable hydrologic model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and spatial aspects of flooding, which is, however, not guaranteed especially when using standard model calibration metrics. In this paper we investigate how flood timing, magnitude and spatial variability are represented by an ensemble of hydrological models when calibrated on streamflow using the Kling–Gupta efficiency metric, an increasingly common metric of hydrologic model performance. We compare how four well-known models (SAC, HBV, VIC, and mHM) represent (1) flood characteristics and their spatial patterns; and (2) how they translate changes in meteorologic variables that trigger floods into changes in flood magnitudes. Our results show that both the modeling of local and spatial flood characteristics is challenging. They further show that changes in precipitation and temperature are not necessarily well translated to changes in flood flow, which makes local and regional flood hazard assessments even more difficult for future conditions. We conclude that models calibrated on integrated metrics such as the Kling–Gupta efficiency alone have limited reliability in flood hazard assessments, in particular in regional and future assessments, and suggest the development of alternative process-based and spatial evaluation metrics.

Comparison of flood hazard assessments on desert piedmonts and playas: A case study in Ivanpah Valley, Nevada

Geomorphology ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 103 (4) ◽  
pp. 520-532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin R. Robins ◽  
Brenda J. Buck ◽  
Amanda J. Williams ◽  
Janice L. Morton ◽  
P. Kyle House ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Desert Piedmonts

scholarly journals Flood spatial coherence, triggers, and performance in hydrological simulations: large-sample evaluation of four streamflow-calibrated models

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-119
Author(s):  
Manuela I. Brunner ◽  
Lieke A. Melsen ◽  
Andrew W. Wood ◽  
Oldrich Rakovec ◽  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Large Sample ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Flood Characteristics

Abstract. Floods cause extensive damage, especially if they affect large regions. Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable hydrologic model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and spatial aspects of flooding under current and future climate conditions. However, uncertainties in simulated floods can be considerable and yield unreliable hazard and climate change impact assessments. This study evaluates the extent to which models calibrated according to standard model calibration metrics such as the widely used Kling–Gupta efficiency are able to capture flood spatial coherence and triggering mechanisms. To highlight challenges related to flood simulations, we investigate how flood timing, magnitude, and spatial variability are represented by an ensemble of hydrological models when calibrated on streamflow using the Kling–Gupta efficiency metric, an increasingly common metric of hydrologic model performance also in flood-related studies. Specifically, we compare how four well-known models (the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model, SAC; the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model, HBV; the variable infiltration capacity model, VIC; and the mesoscale hydrologic model, mHM) represent (1) flood characteristics and their spatial patterns and (2) how they translate changes in meteorologic variables that trigger floods into changes in flood magnitudes. Our results show that both the modeling of local and spatial flood characteristics are challenging as models underestimate flood magnitude, and flood timing is not necessarily well captured. They further show that changes in precipitation and temperature are not always well translated to changes in flood flow, which makes local and regional flood hazard assessments even more difficult for future conditions. From a large sample of catchments and with multiple models, we conclude that calibration on the integrated Kling–Gupta metric alone is likely to yield models that have limited reliability in flood hazard assessments, undermining their utility for regional and future change assessments. We underscore that such assessments can be improved by developing flood-focused, multi-objective, and spatial calibration metrics, by improving flood generating process representation through model structure comparisons and by considering uncertainty in precipitation input.

Regional Flood Hazard Mapping in Murshidabad, West Bengal

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-393
Author(s):  
Swati Mollah ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Mapping

ANALYSIS OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN NAGAN RAYA REGENCY ACEH PROVINCE

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 414
Author(s):  
Amsar Yunan
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Thematic Maps ◽  
Aceh Province ◽  
Object Area ◽  
Use Factors ◽  
Hazard Levels ◽  
Flood Prone Areas

Maps or remote sensing can be interpreted as the process of reading using various sensors where data collected remotely can be analyzed to obtain information about the object, area or phenomenon. In this study, the author develops a flood disaster mapping information system applying overlays with scoring between the parameters. The determinant factors to provide flood hazard levels includes rainfall factors in the dasarian unit, land-use factors and land-use arbitrary factors. Of all these parameters, a scoring process will be carried out by assigning weights and values according to their respective classifications, then an overlay process will be performed using ArcGIS software. The author conducted this study in Nagan Raya Regency since this area experiences flooding annually.  Framing a thematic map of flood-prone areas in Nagan Raya Regency was designed using the flood hazard method. Spatial data that has been presented in the form of thematic maps as parameters are land use maps, landform maps, and dasarian rainfall maps (per 10 daily). The design of thematic maps that are prone to flooding is done by overlapping (overlay process). In contrast, the determination of the classification is done by adding scores to each parameter, with low, medium and high hazard levels. Parameter analysis shows the level of flood vulnerability in Nagan Raya Regency of each district, namely Beutong: high 0.21%, medium 13.68%, low 86.12%. Seunagan District: high 51.17%, medium 48.83%, low 0%. Seunagan Timur District: high 10.07%, medium 46.18%, low 43.75%. Kuala Subdistrict: high 29.66%, medium 68.99%, low 1.35%. Darul Makmur District: high 8.57%, medium 63.37%, low 28.06%. From the overall results of the study, it can be concluded that the danger of flooding in Nagan Raya Regency with a level of vulnerability: high 9.92%, moderate 42.65% and low 47.43%.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Lincoln County, Maine

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles W. Schalk ◽  
Robert W. Dudley
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Lincoln County
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