scholarly journals Investigating the Socio-Economic and Livelihoods Impacts of African Swine Fever in Timor-Leste: An Application of Spatial Group Model Building

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Berends ◽  
Joanita Bendita da Costa Jong ◽  
Tarni Louisa Cooper ◽  
Kanar Dizyee ◽  
Olavio Morais ◽  
...  

Small-scale pig farming is highly important to the economic and social status of households in Timor-Leste. The presence of an African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Timor-Leste was confirmed in 2019, a major concern given that around 70% of agricultural households practice pig farming. This research used a virtual spatial group model building process to construct a concept model to better understand the main feedback loops that determine the socio-economic and livelihood impacts of the ASF outbreak. After discussing the interaction of reinforcing and balancing feedback loops in the concept model, potential leverage points for intervention are suggested that could reduce the impacts of ASF within socio-economic spheres. These include building trust between small-scale farmers and veterinary technicians, strengthening government veterinary services, and the provision of credit conditional on biosecurity investments to help restock the industry. This conceptual model serves as a starting point for further research and the future development of a quantitative system dynamics (SD) model which would allow ex-ante scenario-testing of various policy and technical mitigation strategies of ASF outbreaks in Timor-Leste and beyond. Lessons learned from the blended offline/online approach to training and workshop facilitation are also explored in the paper.

2002 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eti�nne A. J. A. Rouwette ◽  
Jac A. M. Vennix ◽  
Theo van Mullekom

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng Xu ◽  
Mengge Zhang ◽  
Bo Xia ◽  
Jiangbo Liu

PurposeThis study aimed to identify driving factors of safety attitudinal ambivalence (AA) and explore their influence. Construction workers' intention to act safely can be instable under conflicting information from safety management, co-workers and habitual unsafe behaviour. Existing research explained the mechanism of unsafe behaviours as individual decisions but failed to include AA, as the co-existence of both positive and negative attitude.Design/methodology/approachThis study applied system dynamics to explore factors of construction workers' AA and simulate the process of mitigating the ambivalence for less safety behaviour. Specifically, the group model building approach with eight experts was used to map the causal loop diagram and field questionnaire of 209 construction workers were used to collect empirical data for initiating parameters.FindingsThe group model building identified five direct factors of AA, namely the organisational safety support, important others' safety attitude, emotional arousal, safety production experience and work pressure, with seven feedback paths. The questionnaire survey obtained the initial values of the factors in the SD model, with the average ambivalence at 0.389. The ambivalence between cognitive and affective safety attitude was the highest. Model simulation results indicated that safety experience and work pressure had the most significant effects, and safety experience and positive attitude of co-workers could compensate the pressure from tight schedule and budget.Originality/valueThis study provided a new perspective of the dynamic safety attitude under the co-existence of positive and negative attitude, identified its driving factors and their influencing paths. The group model building approach and field questionnaire surveys were used to provide convincible suggestions for empirical safety management with least and most effective approaches and possible interventions to prevent unsafe behaviour with tight schedule and budget.


2015 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. S79-S83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian M. Thomas ◽  
Stacia R. Reilly

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 98-136
Author(s):  
Ali Haji Gholam Saryazdi ◽  
Ali Rajabzadeh Ghatari ◽  
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi ◽  
Alireza Hassanzadeh

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurul Huda ◽  
Ariel Nian Gani ◽  
Nova Rini ◽  
Tiko Dhafin Rizky ◽  
Lazuardi Ichsan

Purpose Islamic attributes and activities need to be developed in compliance with the halal concept to attract potential Muslim tourists and ensure the success of halal tourism. Although the literature shows that many factors can influence the success of halal tourism, a complete picture of the success factors of halal tourism in a city is still very limited. As such, this explorative study aims to examine stakeholders’ perspectives regarding the antecedents of halal tourism success and the benefits of halal tourism for the city. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative system dynamics modeling was used for this study, and Makassar (a successful halal tourism city) was considered as the basis for the study. A causal loop diagram (CLD) of halal tourism was developed using the group model building technique to elicit stakeholders’ knowledge and assumptions. Network analysis and feedback loop analysis were used to identify the driving factors of successful halal tourism. Findings Two factors need to be taken into account by halal tourism stakeholders in the city: support from the central and local government and improving and maintaining potential tourists’ perceptions of the city. There are four benefits of halal tourism success for the city: an increase in the number of micro-, small- and medium-sized halal businesses in the city, increased support from the central and local government to further develop halal tourism infrastructure in the city, increased word-of-mouth promotion of Makassar as a tourism destination and a decrease in the price of halal tourism components (e.g. food and accommodation). Originality/value The resulting CLD shows the interlinkage between political, societal and economical factors that could influence the success of halal tourism development. In particular, the findings show how governments and tourism stakeholders need to promote halal tourism socialization in the community and improve the public perception of this type of tourism. Therefore, the findings can help destination stakeholders and tourism developers in other cities develop halal tourism potential.


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