Using RISKPLAN for Earthquake Risk Assessment in Sichuan Province, China

Sichuan Province of China is a prominent population and economic growth center as well as an earthquake-stricken region. A sound understanding of the seismic risk that Sichuan Province is facing is useful to raise risk awareness, achieve disaster risk reduction (DRR), and guarantee sustainable socio-economic development. Earthquake risk assessment is the first step in these efforts. This study strives to demonstrate the feasibility of applying an integrated earthquake risk assessment in Sichuan Province of China using RISKPLAN, a risk evaluation tool of natural hazards developed by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). The time and location of seismic events in Sichuan were incorporated into three scenarios and calculated with respect to expected losses under different assumed conditions of earthquake occurrence, such as the recurrence interval and magnitude. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness calculations were made regarding the various possible scenarios to assess the ratio of expected losses and the required financial means for prevention and mitigation measures against the effects of seismic activities in Sichuan. Our results show that when the magnitude of the seismic event is greater than expected, reduction and mitigation investments for a possible earthquake risk will be all the more rewarding.