scholarly journals MODEL HYBRID NONLINEAR REGRESSION LOGISTIC (NLR) –DOUBLE EXPONENSIAL SMOOTHING (DES) DAN PENERAPANNYA PADA JUMLAH KASUS KUMULATIF COVID-19 DI INDONESIA DAN BELANDA

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-47
Author(s):  
RADITYA NOVIDIANTO

The economic relationship between Indonesia and the Netherlands is a good trade relationship, but the spread of COVID-19 disrupts the two countries' economies. Both countries need to have an explanation regarding the condition of COVID-19 to raise economic market sentiment. Based on this, Hybrid and non-hybrid models are used to predict the dispersion conditions and compare them through the MAPE value. The double-exponential nonlinear logistic regression hybrid model on the cumulative number of COVID-19 is not suitable for use in the Netherlands COVID-19 cases but is suitable for use in the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases Indonesia. The hybrid nonlinear regression logistic-double exponential model is one way to optimize MAPE, especially in training data. Based on the hybrid non-client regression logistic model, the peak incidence of Covid-19 in the Netherlands is estimated at 22 November 2020, and the hybrid nonlinear regression logistic-Double exponential model predicts that the peak of Covid-19 occurs in Indonesia on 28 November 2020. the Netherlands wave is around 2.83 percent and Indonesia 1.62 percent. Therefore the decline in Indonesia is predicted to be faster, but the Netherlands will reach the peak of the Indonesian news wave.

1989 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 227-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. A. HAWLADER ◽  
J. C. HO ◽  
N. E. WIJEYSUNDERA ◽  
T. H. KHO

Author(s):  
Tadeusz Siwiec ◽  
Lidia Kiedryńska ◽  
Klaudia Abramowicz ◽  
Aleksandra Rewicka ◽  
Piotr Nowak

BOD measuring and modelling methods - reviewThe article presents the method of measuring BOD in wastewater and characteristic different models which can by used for describing changes of BOD in next days. In the paper described eight models: Moore et al. (1950), Thomas (1950), Navone (1960), Fujimoto (1964), Hewitt et al. (1979), Adrian and Sanders (1992-1993) as well as Young and Clark (1965) used by Adrian and Sanders (1998), Borsuk and Stow (2000) and Manson et al. (2006). Comparison the models suggests that changing of BOD during the time are better describes by models second order or double exponential model (Manson et al. 2006) than models the first order.


1990 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 943-951 ◽  
Author(s):  
William F. J. Parsons ◽  
Barry R. Taylor ◽  
Dennis Parkinson

In a Rocky Mountain aspen forest, the detailed pattern of mass loss from decomposing leaf litter of trembling aspen (Populustremuloides Michx.) during the first 6 months of decay was compared with that from aspen leaves modified to produce a more recalcitrant litter type by removal of leachable material (31.7% of original mass). Leaching litter removed substantial quantities of N (24%) and P (54%), but did not change the litter's C/N ratio (77:1); and leached leaves still contained 33% labile (benzene alcohol soluble) material. Decomposition of intact aspen litter was best described by a double exponential model (k1 = −7.91/year, k2 = −0.21/year), except during the first 2 weeks, when an extremely rapid mass loss (14.2%) apparently resulted from leaching. Microbial metabolism was probably responsible for most of the subsequent decay (35% total in 6 months). In contrast, decomposition of leached aspen showed no exponential trend and was best described by a simple linear regression with a slope of −19.7%/year. Additional data from a 2nd year (12–15 months decay) reduced the regression estimates of decay rates but did not alter the best fit models. Fits were improved slightly if temperature sum replaced time in the regressions, especially if 2nd-year data were included.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-423
Author(s):  
Priyanka Mallikarjun Kumbhar

Soybean crop has contributed to improve the financial strength of the Indian farmers. It usually fetches higher income to the farmers owing to the massive export market for Soybean de-oiled cake. In state of Maharashtra Soybean is cultivated extensively in Amravati district. So the present studies explore the seasonality and price forecasting issue for Soybean crop. The is based on the secondary data. The monthly wholesale prices and arrivals data for the study collected from the agmarknet.gov.in for the period January 2008 to December 2017. To analyze the data we use statistical techniques like seasonality and exponential smoothing for price forecasting. The processing of data is done through MS- Excel and MINITAB Software. The study gives an overview of the different time series analytical methods, which can be used for price forecasting. The present study is undertaken precisely to fill the research gap and results of this study found an inverse relationship between price and market arrivals of soybean. The arrivals were recorded very high from October to January and seasonal indices of price were elevated during August in which arrivals were found stumpy. The assessment of all three Exponential Smoothing models was carried out in the procedure based on the Double Exponential model with MAD (168.3) and MAPE (6.14) values, which were considered in the smallest amount. The accuracy of proportion among the forecasted and actual price value of soybean was found in between 80.52 to 85.55 percent. It was pragmatic that the Double Exponential model was the most appropriate for forecasting the soybean.


2008 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 061-067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr H. Pawlowski ◽  
Szymon Kaczanowski ◽  
Piotr Zielenkiewicz

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