Hybrid grey exponential smoothing approach for predicting transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Sri Lanka

PurposeThe Coronavirus (COVID-19) is one of the major pandemic diseases caused by a newly discovered virus that has been directly affecting the human respiratory system. Because of the gradually increasing magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic across the world, it has been sparking emergencies and critical issues in the healthcare systems around the world. However, predicting the exact amount of daily reported new COVID cases is the most serious issue faced by governments around the world today. So, the purpose of this current study is to propose a novel hybrid grey exponential smoothing model (HGESM) to predicting transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak properly.Design/methodology/approachAs a result of the complications relates to the traditional time series approaches, the proposed HGESM model is well defined to handle exponential data patterns in multidisciplinary systems. The proposed methodology consists of two parts as double exponential smoothing and grey exponential smoothing modeling approach respectively. The empirical analysis of this study was carried out on the basis of the 3rd outbreak of Covid-19 cases in Sri Lanka, from 1st March 2021 to 15th June 2021. Out of the total 90 daily observations, the first 85% of daily confirmed cases were used during the training, and the remaining 15% of the sample.FindingsThe new proposed HGESM is highly accurate (less than 10%) with the lowest root mean square error values in one head forecasting. Moreover, mean absolute deviation accuracy testing results confirmed that the new proposed model has given more significant results than other time-series predictions with the limited samples.Originality/valueThe findings suggested that the new proposed HGESM is more suitable and effective for forecasting time series with the exponential trend in a short-term manner.

Perturbative Cauchy theory for a flux-incompressible Maxwell-Stefan system

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>Recently, the authors proved [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="b2">2</xref>] that the Maxwell-Stefan system with an incompressibility-like condition on the total flux can be rigorously derived from the multi-species Boltzmann equation. Similar cross-diffusion models have been widely investigated, but the particular case of a perturbative incompressible setting around a non constant equilibrium state of the mixture (needed in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="b2">2</xref>]) seems absent of the literature. We thus establish a quantitative perturbative Cauchy theory in Sobolev spaces for it. More precisely, by reducing the analysis of the Maxwell-Stefan system to the study of a quasilinear parabolic equation on the sole concentrations and with the use of a suitable anisotropic norm, we prove global existence and uniqueness of strong solutions and their exponential trend to equilibrium in a perturbative regime around any macroscopic equilibrium state of the mixture. As a by-product, we show that the equimolar diffusion condition naturally appears from this perturbative incompressible setting.</p>

Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update

In 2002, Modis published an article forecasting that the rate of change in our lives was about to stop accelerating and indeed begin decelerating [DOI:10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00172-X]. Today, with twenty years’ worth more data, Modis revisits those forecasts. He points out that an exponential trend would have predicted the appearance of three “cosmic” milestones by now, namely in 2008, 2015, and 2018, but we have seen none. The logistic trend, however, predicted the next milestone around 2033 and could well turn out to be a cluster of achievements in AI, robotics, nanotechnology, and bioengineering, analogous to what happened with the milestone at the turn of the 20th century. He sees this as confirmation that the concept of a Singularity is not called for.

Polityczne konteksty genezy przestępstwa o charakterze chuligańskim w polskim prawie karnym

The study deals with the politicization of the hooligan nature of the crime in the initial period of the functioning of this structure in the Polish social and legal reality after World War II. The political entanglement of such behaviors, their ideologization and perception through the prism of attacks on the foundations of the new socio-economic system was undoubtedly influenced by the origin of this circumstance. The politicization of hooligan behavior in the Soviet reality — from where this structure was transplanted into the native reality and ultimately the legal order — had had a long tradition at that time. Over two decades of experience in demonstrating the “class” nature of such behavior, its “counter-revolutionary” basis and the “anti-systemic” motivation of its perpetrators were reflected in the statements of some of the interpreters of hooliganism in Poland at the turn of the 1940s and 1950s. Analyzing the literature and judicial decisions from this period, attention was drawn to the scale of the politicized exegesis of this concept and its reminiscences in the later periods of its functioning in the domestic criminal law system. At the same time, the exponential trend was not omitted, which more or less firmly disregarded the relationship between hooliganism and politics.

Analyzing and prediction of rainfall trends over Baghdad city

Rainfall is a key part of the hydrological cycle and alteration of its pattern directly affects the water resources. The changing pattern of rainfall in consequence of climate change is now concerning issues to water resource managers and hydrologists. The present study aims to analyze the trend and forecast annual rainfall in Baghdad. rainfall data for the period of 1979-2019 was analyzed in this study, Statistical trend analysis techniques namely linear and Exponential trend were used to examine and analyze the problem. The result shows that rainfall will decrease in both methods but the liner method gives a higher value. from plotting time series of annual rainfall see that very variation so 5- moving average made to reduce the variance of rain but still variations so second 5- moving average made give less variance for rain then teak liner trend the result show also trend will decrease but reach 125 mm less than liner trend of actual series.

Livestock Population Dynamics in Central India: A District-level Analysis of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh

In this study, we assessed the dynamics of district-level livestock population in two central states of India, viz. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the period 2012-19. The analytical tools comprised of simple descriptive statistics and fitting exponential trend equations. We found temporal variations in shares of different species to total district-wise livestock population. While population of cattle declined in Madhya Pradesh, the same registered a minor increase in Chhattisgarh. The reverse situation was observed in case of buffaloes. Dynamics of changes in small ruminant population pointed towards the increasing importance of goats as compared to sheep. Although, cattle is the livestock species on which the rural population mostly depend for their livelihood in both the states, economic dependence on sheep and pig is more in Chhattisgarh than Madhya Pradesh. Some policy suggestions have been given based on the findings of the study on leveraging the opportunities offered by livestock sector. HIGHLIGHTS In the context of increasing population pressure and associated shrinking landholding size, diversification of agricultural activities becomes crucial. The role of livestock, on account of more equitable distribution in favour of resource poor farmers, is important for sustainable livelihood security of farmers. For formulating appropriate policies for development of livestock sector, it is necessary to carry out disaggregated analyses to assess the district-level trends and dynamics of livestock population.

Decrease of heart rate variability during exercise: an index of cardiorespiratory fitness

The present study proposes to measure and quantify the heart rate variability (HRV) changes during effort and to test the capacity of the produced indices to predict cardiorespiratory fitness measures. Therefore, the beat-to-beat cardiac time interval series of 18 adolescent athletes (15.2 +- 2.0 years) measured during maximal graded effort test were detrended using a dynamical first-order differential equation model. Heart rate variability was then calculated as the standard deviation of the detrended RR intervals within successive windows of one minute. The variation of this measure of HRV during exercise is properly adjusted by an exponential decrease of the heart rate. The amplitude and the decay rate of this exponential trend are strongly associated with maximum oxygen consumption, maximal aerobic power, and ventilatory thresholds. It indicates that among athletes with better fitness, HRV has higher values at low heart rate and decreases faster when the heart rate increases during exercise. This analysis, based only on cardiac measurements, provides a promising tool for the study of cardiac measurements generated by portable devices.

Epithelial-to-Mesenchymal Transition in Fibrosis: Concepts and Targeting Strategies

The epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT), an embryonic program relaunched during wound healing and in pathological conditions such as fibrosis and cancer, continues to gain the attention of the research community, as testified by the exponential trend of publications since its discovery in the seventies. From the first description as a mesenchymal transformation, the concept of EMT has been substantially refined as an in-depth comprehension of its functional role has recently emerged thanks to the implementation of novel mouse models as well as the use of sophisticated mathematical modeling and bioinformatic analysis. Nevertheless, attempts to targeting EMT in fibrotic diseases are at their infancy and continue to pose several challenges. The aim of this mini review is to recapitulate the most recent concepts in the EMT field and to summarize the different strategies which have been exploited to target EMT in fibrotic disorders.

A Time Series Analysis of the Trend of Crime Against Property in Oke-Ogun Region of Oyo State, Nigeria

Temporal variation in spatial crime occurrence has been a topical issue in environmental criminology and criminal justice research, especially in the area of generating early warning systems for preparedness against crime. However, the concentration of research effort on urban crime pattern with unjustified neglect of regional crime impedes the search for analytical explanations and effective strategies to eradicate crime. Hence, this study examined fluctuant pattern of property crime in Oke-Ogun region of Oyo State, Nigeria. It also assessed direction and incidence speed of the crime in the area. This is with a view to understanding the influence of changes in time (year factor) and other factors (a faulty system of education, erosion of traditional values, porous border, and unemployment among others). over property crime occurrence in the region. Crime reports were collated from the Nigerian Police records on nine typologies of property crime from 2005 to 2012. The geo-analytical techniques employed to examine temporal variations in crime were exponential trend smoothing technique with a smoothing constant of 0.3 and the least-squares trend analytical technique. Regression and correlation coefficients represented by “b” and “r” respectively were used to determine the changing rate of the crimes over the period of year under investigation. Analysis showed that out of the nine crime types that were analysed, three crimes were found to exhibit a rising trend with the effluxion of year while six exhibited a declining trend. Aggregately, crime against property had downward sloping trend lines. The negative values associated with (b = – 93.04, r = – 0.62) property crime confirmed the negative lapse rates and inverse relationships. The coefficient of determination (r2) in this case is 0.3969. However, the study concluded that 39.69% of variations in the level of property crime were influenced by changes in year and 60.31% was explained by other factors which included a faulty system of education, erosion of traditional values, porous border, and unemployment among others.

Efektivitas Program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional dalam Menopang Tingkat Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Kalimantan Selatan

This article aims to analyze the effectiveness of National Economic Recovery program (Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional/PEN) in supporting the level of walfare in South Kalimantan. In measuring the level of effectiveness, the indicators used are Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and the Open Unemployment Rate. The methods used in this article are the modelling of the exponential trend and the ARIMA time series forecasting. The measurement result shows that the PEN program that has been implemented in 2020 effectively supported the GRDP level of South Kalimantan better than the prognosis of the condition without the implementation of the PEN program. The PEN program also effectively holding back the rate of increase in the open unemployment rate in South Kalimantan to 4.74 percent, compared to the estimated condition without the implementation of the PEN program, which is 5.19 percent. Abstrak Artikel ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efektivitas program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PEN) dalam menopang tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat di Kalimantan Selatan. Indikator yang digunakan dalam mengukur tingkat efektivitas program PEN adalah Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT). Metode yang digunakan dalam artikel ini adalah pemodelan Trend Eksponensial dan Forecasting Deret Waktu ARIMA. Hasil pengukuran menunjukkan bahwa program PEN tahun 2020 secara efektif menopang tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat Kalimantan Selatan sehingga mendorong tingkat PDRB Kalimantan Selatan jauh lebih baik dibandingkan dengan prognosis kondisi tanpa diimplementasikannya program PEN. Program PEN dapat menahan laju pertambahan angka pengangguran terbuka di Kalimantan Selatan menjadi 4,74 persen, dibandingkan perkiraan kondisi tanpa diimplementasikannya program PEN yaitu 5,19 persen.