scholarly journals The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share Across Sectors

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz ◽  
Codrina Rada ◽  
Rudi von Arnim
Keyword(s):  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Real Wage ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Early Period ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Labor Share ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

This paper provides novel insights on the changing functional distribution of income in the post– war US economy. We present a Divisia index decomposition of the US labor share (1948–2017) by fourteen sectors. The decomposition method furnishes exact contributions from four components towards aggregate changes of the labor share: sectoral real compensation, sectoral labor productivity, the structure of the economy as measured by employment shares, and the structure of markets as measured by relative prices. Results are presented for the entire period as well as the “golden age” (1948–1979) and a “neoliberal era” (1979–2017), painting a rich and detailed picture of structural changes in the US economy. The manufacturing sector plays a dominant role: despite its continuously falling employment share, growth of real compensation matches that of labor productivity in the early period but falls far behind during the neoliberal era. Further, employment shifts towards stagnant sectors with relatively low real wages and productivity. We discuss these results in the context of Baumol’s and Lewis’s seminal contributions on dual economies. While the cost disease is apparent—employment shifts towards stagnant sectors, their relative prices rise, and the aggregate growth rate (of productivity) decreases—the originally suggested mechanism of upward real wage convergence is muted. The observed changes are instead compatible with a “reverse-Lewis” shift, where stagnant sectors act as a labor surplus sink, and dynamic sector labor experiences slowing real wage growth.

scholarly journals Payroll Share, Real Wage and Labor Productivity across US States

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-41
Author(s):  
Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz ◽  
Codrina Rada ◽  
Ansel Schiavone ◽  
Rudi von Arnim
Keyword(s):  
Mixture Models ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Real Wage ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Us States ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Joint Distributions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Index Decomposition

This paper analyzes regional contributions to the US payroll share from 1977 to 2017 and the four major business cycles throughout this period. We implement two empirical exercises. First, we decompose the US payroll share across states. Utilizing a Divisia index decomposition technique yields exact contributions of real wages, employment structure, labor productivity and relative prices across the states to the aggregate change in the payroll share. Key findings are that the decline in the aggregate (i) is driven by decoupling between real wage and labor productivity; and (ii) is initially driven by the rust belt states, but subsequently dominated by relatively large states. Second, we employ mixture models on real wages and labor productivity across US states to discern whether distinct mechanisms appear to generate these distributions. Univariate models (iii) indicate the possibility that two distinct mechanisms generate state labor productivities, raising the question of whether regional dualism has taken hold. Lastly, we use bivariate mixture models to investigate whether such dualism and decoupling manifest in the joint distributions of payroll shares and labor productivity, too. Results (iv) are affirmative, and further suggest a tendency for high performing states to have relatively high payroll shares initially, and low payroll shares more recently.

scholarly journals Kuznets meets Lucas: structural change and human capital

2018 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
pp. 848-873
Author(s):  
Edgar Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Human Capital Accumulation ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Balanced Growth Path ◽  
Cross Country

Abstract This paper develops a multi-sector growth model with human capital accumulation. In this model, human capital induces structural change through two channels: changes in relative prices and changes in the investment rate of physical and human capital. We show that the specifications of the model give rise to a generalized balanced growth path (GBGP). Furthermore, We show that the model is consistent with (i) the decline in agriculture, (ii) the hump-shaped of manufacturing, (iii) the rise of the services sector, and (iv) the path of human capital accumulation in the US economy during the 20th century. Given the findings, We outline that imbalances between physical and human capital contribute to explain cross-country differences in the pace of structural change.

scholarly journals SECTORAL LABOR MOBILITY AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-34
Author(s):  
Alessandro Cantelmo ◽  
Giovanni Melina
Keyword(s):  
Labor Mobility ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Optimal Weights ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Us

How should central banks optimally aggregate sectoral inflation rates in the presence of imperfect labor mobility across sectors? We study this issue in a two-sector New-Keynesian model and show that a lower degree of sectoral labor mobility, ceteris paribus, increases the optimal weight on inflation in a sector that would otherwise receive a lower weight. We analytically and numerically find that, with limited labor mobility, adjustment to asymmetric shocks cannot fully occur through the reallocation of labor, thus putting more pressure on wages, causing inefficient movements in relative prices, and creating scope for central bank’ s intervention. These findings challenge standard central banks’ practice of computing sectoral inflation weights based solely on sector size and unveil a significant role for the degree of sectoral labor mobility to play in the optimal computation. In an extended estimated model of the US economy, featuring customary frictions and shocks, the estimated inflation weights imply a decrease in welfare up to 10% relative to the case of optimal weights.

scholarly journals On the Sources of the Great Moderation

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí ◽  
Luca Gambetti
Keyword(s):  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Good Luck ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Second Moments ◽  
The Us ◽  
Complex Picture

The Great Moderation in the US economy has been accompanied by large changes in the comovements among output, hours, and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. Among other changes, our findings point to an increase in the volatility of hours relative to output, a shrinking contribution of nontechnology shocks to output volatility, and a change in the cyclical response of labor productivity to those shocks. That evidence suggests a more complex picture than that associated with “good luck” explanations of the Great Moderation. (JEL: E23, E24, J22, J24)

A Note on Relative Prices and Income Distribution over the US Business Cycle: 1857–2009

2020 ◽  
pp. 048661342096286
Author(s):  
Claudio Alberto Castelo Branco Puty
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Industrial Economy ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Unit Labor Costs ◽  
Jel Classifications

This paper investigates the relation between relative prices and the income distribution by examining variations in output and prices occurred over thirty-three US business cycles from 1857 to 2009. Using a broad database, the author shows that average relative prices in twenty-seven industries of the US economy presented a remarkably smaller variation than the corresponding variation in output levels, profits and wages. These time-series results, although not conclusive, may provide additional empirical evidence of the Ricardian claim that even relative market prices in an industrial economy are strongly dominated by the correspondent integrated unit labor costs and that changes along a wage-profit schedule will play only a secondary role in their determination. JEL classifications: E11, E32

scholarly journals Retrospectives: The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Productivity and the Emergence of the Labor Hoarding Concept

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff E. Biddle
Keyword(s):  
Labor Productivity ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
Accepted Part ◽  
Cyclical Behavior ◽  
Labor Hoarding ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Modern Form

The concept of “labor hoarding,” at least in its modern form, was first fully articulated in the early 1960s by Arthur Okun (1963). By the end of the 20th century, the concept of “labor hoarding” had become an accepted part of economists' explanations of the workings of labor markets and of the relationship between labor productivity and economic fluctuations. The emergence of this concept involved the conjunction of three key elements: the fact that measured labor productivity was found to be procyclical, rising during expansions and falling during contractions; a perceived contradiction with the theory of the neoclassical firm in a competitive economy; and a possible explanation based on optimizing behavior on the part of firms. Each of these three elements—fact, contradiction, and explanation—has a history of its own, dating back to at least the opening decades of the twentieth century. Telling the story of the emergence of the modern labor hoarding concept requires recounting these three histories, histories that involve the work of economists motivated by diverse purposes and often not mainly, if at all, concerned with the questions that the labor hoarding concept was ultimately used to address. As a final twist to the story, the long-standing positive relationship between labor productivity and output in the US economy began to disappear in the late 1980s; and during the Great Recession, labor productivity rose while the economy contracted.

Prospects for the US economy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Economic Expansion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Subject Prospects for the US economy to end 2019. Significance The strong US labour market and low borrowing costs for businesses and individuals are helping to sustain the decade-long economic expansion. GDP grew by more than 3% in January-March, the third quarter out of four in which it was above 3%. The lacklustre housing market, softening manufacturing sector and rising consumer financial stress may dampen economic growth in the rest of 2019, taking it to 2.3-2.5% for the year.

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