scholarly journals FORECASTING FINANCIAL CYCLES: CAN BIG DATA HELP?

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 974-988
Author(s):  
Marinko Škare ◽  
Malgorzata Porada-Rochoń
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
True Nature ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Singular Spectral Analysis ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Financial Cycles ◽  
Japan And China

Financial cycles as a source of financial crisis and business cycles that was demonstrated during the financial crisis of 2008, so it is important to understand proper methods of measuring and forecasting them to unravel their true nature. We searched financial big data for the UK, USA, Japan and China for a period 2004Q1 to 2019Q1 to find important data corresponding to the research and determine their importance for the financial cycle studies. We use singular spectral analysis (SSA without financial big data) and multichannel singular spectral analysis (MSSA with financial big data) to identify significant deterministic cycles in the residential property prices, credits to private non-financial sector and credit share in the GDP. The forecast test results show on the data for the UK, USA, Japan and China that inclusion of the financial big data significantly (on the level from 30% to four times) improves forecast accuracy for financial cycle components. This is a first study on the importance of the link between financial cycles and financial big data. Policymakers, practitioners and financial cycles research should take into the account the importance of financial big data for the studies of financial cycles for a better understanding of their true nature and improving their forecast accuracy.

Modern research methods: Opportunity knocks

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Imran Alvi
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Complex Environment ◽  
National Institutions ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
The Uk

As economists are working in an increasing complex environment, it is natural that they take advantage of a wider and more advanced set of tools and skills to deliver meaningful solutions. The financial crisis and the advent of big data have been two key drivers in this direction. Through examination of case studies from the UK, research methods are found to be of key importance in addressing the complexity of today's pressing economic questions. Considerable opportunities present themselves to higher education and national institutions that are able to master the application of up-to-date research methods.

The modification of the singular spectral analysis basic method for improving the accuracy of forecasting the irregularity of the Earth rotation

2020 ◽  
pp. 54-65
Author(s):  
Александр Кузьмич Гречкосеев ◽  
Александр Сергеевич Толстиков ◽  
Виктор Мартынович Тиссен ◽  
Виталий Сергеевич Карманов ◽  
Анна Игоревна Ваганова
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Earth Rotation ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Basic Method ◽  
Earth’S Rotation ◽  
Earth's Rotation ◽  
Coordinate Time ◽  
Singular Spectral Analysis ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Rotation Parameters

Растущие потребности в точности координатно-временных определений со стороны многих прикладных наук о Земле и практических задач приводят к необходимости постоянного совершенствования средств и методов определения и прогнозирования параметров вращения Земли. Параметр “всемирное время”, характеризующий фазу вращения Земли, в наибольшей степени среди других влияет на точность координатно-временных определений. В данной статье приводится описание применения метода сингулярного спектрального анализа к прогнозированию временных рядов параметров вращения Земли. Предлагается модификация базового метода, направленная на повышение точности прогноза. Выполнены сравнительные оценки точности прогнозов всемирного времени, рассчитанных методом сингулярного спектрального анализа, с аналогичными прогнозами Международной службы вращения Земли. Показана целесообразность применения метода сингулярного спектрального анализа для прогнозирования на интервалы более 50 дней Growing demand for accuracy of coordinate-time determinations from both many applied Earth sciences and practical problems requires the continuous improvement of means and methods for determining and predicting the parameters of the Earth rotation. Parameter “World time” characterizes phase of the Earth’s rotation and mostly affects the accuracy of coordinate-time determinations. This article describes application of method of singular spectral analysis for forecasting the time series of the Earth’s rotation parameters. We propose modification of basic method, which aims at increasing forecast accuracy. We made comparative estimates for accuracy of world time forecasts calculated by the method of singular spectral analysis with similar forecasts by the International Earth Rotation Service. The expediency of using the method of singular spectral analysis for predicting intervals of more than 50 days is shown

Economic Patriotism After the Crisis: Explaining Continuity and Change in European Securities Enforcement

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chase Foster
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Insider Trading ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Supervision ◽  
Financial Centre ◽  
Continuity And Change ◽  
Financial Interests ◽  
Mixed Pattern ◽  
The Uk

Since the global financial crisis, European governments have sought to intensify the supervision of financial markets. Yet, few studies have empirically examined whether regulatory approaches have systematically shifted in the aftermath of the crisis, and how these reforms have been mediated by longstanding national strategies to promote domestic financial interests in the European single market. Examining hundreds of enforcement actions in three key European jurisdictions, I find a mixed pattern of continuity and change in the aftermath of the crisis. In the UK, aggregate monetary penalties and criminal sanctions have skyrocketed since 2009, while in France and Germany, the enforcement pattern suggests continuity, with both countries assessing penalties and prosecuting insider trading at similar rates before and after the crisis. I conclude that financial regulation is still structured by longstanding industrial strategies (Story and Walter, 1997), but where pre-existing regulatory approaches were seen as contributing to the crisis, a broader regulatory overhaul has been pursued. Thus, in the UK, where the financial crisis served as a direct rebuke to the country’s “light touch” regulation, financial supervision was overhauled, and monetary sanctions dramatically increased, to preserve London’s status as an international financial centre. By contrast, in France and Germany, where domestic regulatory systems were implicated by the financial crisis, domestic securities supervision and enforcement was less dramatically altered. While the crisis has led to the further institutionalization of European-level supervisory institutions, these changes have not yet led to convergence in national regulatory approaches.   Full text available at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v12i1.1233

scholarly journals Mean scatterer space estimation from ultrasound signals combining singular spectral analysis and entropy

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriana Kauati ◽  
Wagner Coelho de Albuquerque Pereira ◽  
Marcello Luiz Rodrigues Campos
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Singular Spectral Analysis ◽  
Ultrasound Signals
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