scholarly journals Characterization of uncertainty in Bayesian estimation using sequential Monte Carlo methods

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.H Aoki
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (01) ◽  
pp. 71-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayub Hanif ◽  
Robert Elliott Smith

Recursive Bayesian estimation using sequential Monte Carlos methods is a powerful numerical technique to understand latent dynamics of nonlinear non-Gaussian dynamical systems. It enables us to reason under uncertainty and addresses shortcomings underlying deterministic systems and control theories which do not provide sufficient means of performing analysis and design. In addition, parametric techniques such as the Kalman filter and its extensions, though they are computationally efficient, do not reliably compute states and cannot be used to learn stochastic problems. We review recursive Bayesian estimation using sequential Monte Carlo methods highlighting open problems. Primary of these is the weight degeneracy and sample impoverishment problem. We proceed to detail synergistic computational intelligence sequential Monte Carlo methods which address this. We find that imbuing sequential Monte Carlos with computational intelligence has many advantages when applied to many application and problem domains.


Author(s):  
Ajay Jasra ◽  
Arnaud Doucet

In this paper, we show how to use sequential Monte Carlo methods to compute expectations of functionals of diffusions at a given time and the gradients of these quantities w.r.t. the initial condition of the process. In some cases, via the exact simulation of the diffusion, there is no time discretization error, otherwise the methods use Euler discretization. We illustrate our approach on both high- and low-dimensional problems from optimal control and establish that our approach substantially outperforms standard Monte Carlo methods typically adopted in the literature. The methods developed here are appropriate for solving a certain class of partial differential equations as well as for option pricing and hedging.


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