Predicting Financial Crises in a Globalized World

2018 ◽  
pp. 63-80
Author(s):  
Asli Yuksel Mermod ◽  
Ülkü Yüksel ◽  
Catherine Sutton-Brady
Keyword(s):  
Great Depression ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Warning Signals ◽  
Fundamental Causes ◽  
Liquidity Crises ◽  
Globalized World

This chapter highlights the facts about financial crises and their fundamental causes on specific incidents, including the 1929 Great Depression that lasted until the early-1940s, 1997 Asian Financial Crises, 1998 Russian Financial Crises, and the Liquidity Crises of 2008, and makes a comparison among them and their various outcomes. In doing so, the study specifies the cues that emerge in the financial system that may help governments predict upcoming financial crises through those early warning signals. This case study specifically analyses the Turkish Banking System that was restructured after the enormous financial crises in Turkey in 2001, which caused many Turkish banks to collapse. However, the precautions taken in the aftermath of the financial turmoil allowed them to survive the liquidity crises in 2008. The indicators of an upcoming crisis are examined, the lessons learned from this case are analyzed, and important recommendations to overcome banking crises are provided.

Early warning signals of financial crises using persistent homology

2021 ◽  
pp. 126459
Author(s):  
Mohd Sabri Ismail ◽  
Mohd Salmi Md Noorani ◽  
Munira Ismail ◽  
Fatimah Abdul Razak ◽  
Mohd Almie Alias
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Persistent Homology ◽  
Warning Signals ◽  
Early Warning Signals

scholarly journals Performance of early warning signals for disease emergence: a case study on COVID-19 data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Proverbio ◽  
Françoise Kemp ◽  
Stefano Magni ◽  
Jorge Gonçalves
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Disease Emergence ◽  
Warning Signals ◽  
Active Monitoring ◽  
Prevalence Data ◽  
Early Warning Signals ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Parameter Values

AbstractThe sudden emergence of infectious diseases pose threats to societies worldwide and it is notably difficult to detect. In the past few years, several early warning signals (EWS) were introduced, to alert to impending critical transitions and extend the set of indicators for risk assessment. While they were originally thought to be generic, recent works demonstrated their sensitivity to some dynamical characteristics such as system noise and rates of approach to critical parameter values. Moreover, testing on empirical data is so far limited. Hence, validating their performance remains a challenge. In this study, we analyse the performance of common EWS such as increasing variance and autocorrelation in detecting the emergence of COVID-19 outbreaks in various countries, based on prevalence data. We show that EWS are successful in detecting disease emergence provided that some basic assumptions are satisfied: a slow forcing through the transitions and not fat-tailed noise. We also show cases where EWS fail, thus providing a verification analysis of their potential and limitations. Overall, this suggests that EWS can be useful for active monitoring of epidemic dynamics, but that their performance is sensitive to surveillance procedures. Our results thus represent a further step towards the application of EWS indicators for informing public health policies.

scholarly journals Early Warning Signals of Social Transformation: A Case Study from the US Southwest

PLoS ONE ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e0163685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine A. Spielmann ◽  
Matthew A. Peeples ◽  
Donna M. Glowacki ◽  
Andrew Dugmore
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Social Transformation ◽  
Warning Signals ◽  
Early Warning Signals ◽  
Us Southwest ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals Crises and The Development of Economic Institutions: Some Microeconomic Evidence

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 524-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raghuram Rajan ◽  
Rodney Ramcharan
Keyword(s):  
Great Depression ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Banking Markets ◽  
Bank Branching

This paper studies the long run effects of financial crises using new bank and town level data from around the Great Depression. We find evidence that banking markets became much more concentrated in areas that experienced a greater initial collapse in the local banking system. There is also evidence that financial regulation after the Great Depression, and in particular limits on bank branching, may have helped to render the effects of the initial collapse persistent. All of this suggests a reason why post-crisis financial regulation, while potentially reducing financial instability, might also have longer run real consequences.

Faculty Development: A Stage Model Matched to Blended Learning Maturation

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael L. Fetters ◽  
Tova Garcia Duby
Keyword(s):  
Faculty Development ◽  
Blended Learning ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Technology Enhanced Learning ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
Years Of Experience ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
Curriculum Innovation ◽  
Enhanced Learning

Faculty development programs are critical to the implementation and support of curriculum innovation. In this case study, the authors present lessons learned from ten years of experience in faculty development programs created to support innovation in technology enhanced learning. Stages of curriculum innovation are matched to stages of faculty development, and important lessons for success as well as current challenges are delineated and discussed.

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