Forecasting Model of Short-Term Traffic Flow Based on Cloud Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 94-96 ◽  
pp. 38-42
Author(s):  
Qin Liu ◽  
Jian Min Xu
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Guangzhou City ◽  
Time Prediction ◽  
Real Time Traffic ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

In order to improve the prediction precision of the short-term traffic flow, a prediction method of short-term traffic flow based on cloud model was proposed. The traffic flow was fit by cloud model. The history cloud and the present cloud were built by historical traffic flow and present traffic flow. The forecast cloud is produced by both clouds. Then, combining with the volume of the short-term traffic flow of an intersection in Guangzhou City, the model was calculated and simulated through programming. Max Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute percent Error (MAPE) were used to estimate the effect of prediction. The simulation results indicate that this prediction method is effective and advanced. The change of the historical and real time traffic flow is taken into account in this method. Because the short-term traffic flow is dealt with as a whole, the error of prediction is avoided. The prediction precision and real-time prediction are satisfied.

An New Approach of Real-Time Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Intelligent Transportation Technology

2014 ◽  
Vol 988 ◽  
pp. 715-718
Author(s):  
Jia Yang Li ◽  
Qin Xue ◽  
Jin De Liu
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Intelligent Transportation System ◽  
Intelligent Transportation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Traffic Flow Prediction ◽  
Real Time Traffic ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Combination Approach

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a core problem in Intelligent Transportation System .Considering linear and nonlinear, this paper proposes a short-term traffic flow intelligent combination approach. The weight of four forecasting model is given by the correlation coefficient and standard deviation method. The experimental results show that the new approach of real-time traffic flow prediction is higher precision than single method.

scholarly journals A Short-Term Traffic Flow Reliability Prediction Method considering Traffic Safety

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Shaoqian Li ◽  
Zhenyuan Zhang ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Zixia Qin
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Traffic Flow Prediction ◽  
Real Time Traffic ◽  
De Algorithm ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Bpnn Model

With the rapid development and application of intelligent traffic systems, traffic flow prediction has attracted an increasing amount of attention. Accurate and timely traffic flow information is of great significance to improve the safety of transportation. To improve the prediction accuracy of the backward-propagation neural network (BPNN) prediction model, which easily falls into local optimal solutions, this paper proposes an adaptive differential evolution (DE) algorithm-optimized BPNN (DE-BPNN) model for a short-term traffic flow prediction. First, by the mutation, crossover, and selection operations of the DE algorithm, the initial weights and biases of the BPNN are optimized. Then, the initial weights and biases obtained by the aforementioned preoptimization are used to train the BPNN, thereby obtaining the optimal weights and biases. Finally, the trained BPNN is utilized to predict the real-time traffic flow. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the DE-BPNN model is improved about 7.36% as compared with that of the BPNN model. The DE-BPNN is superior to the performance of three classical models for short-term traffic flow prediction.

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