Traffic flow prediction is the upstream problem of path planning, intelligent transportation system, and other tasks. Many studies have been carried out on the traffic flow prediction of the spatio-temporal network, but the effects of spatio-temporal flexibility (historical data of the same type of time intervals in the same location will change flexibly) and spatio-temporal correlation (different road conditions have different effects at different times) have not been considered at the same time. We propose the Deep Spatio-temporal Adaptive 3D Convolution Neural Network (ST-A3DNet), which is a new scheme to solve both spatio-temporal correlation and flexibility, and consider spatio-temporal complexity (complex external factors, such as weather and holidays). Different from other traffic forecasting models, ST-A3DNet captures the spatio-temporal relationship at the same time through the Adaptive 3D convolution module, assigns different weights flexibly according to the influence of historical data, and obtains the impact of external factors on the flow through the ex-mask module. Considering the holidays and weather conditions, we train our model for experiments in Xi’an and Chengdu. We evaluate the ST-A3DNet and the results show that we have better results than the other 11 baselines.
Nowadays, many cities have problems with traffic congestion at certain peak hours, which produces more pollution, noise and stress for citizens. Neural networks (NN) and machine-learning (ML) approaches are increasingly used to solve real-world problems, overcoming analytical and statistical methods, due to their ability to deal with dynamic behavior over time and with a large number of parameters in massive data. In this paper, machine-learning (ML) and deep-learning (DL) algorithms are proposed for predicting traffic flow at an intersection, thus laying the groundwork for adaptive traffic control, either by remote control of traffic lights or by applying an algorithm that adjusts the timing according to the predicted flow. Therefore, this work only focuses on traffic flow prediction. Two public datasets are used to train, validate and test the proposed ML and DL models. The first one contains the number of vehicles sampled every five minutes at six intersections for 56 days using different sensors. For this research, four of the six intersections are used to train the ML and DL models. The Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) obtained better results (R-Squared and EV score of 0.93) and took less training time, followed closely by Gradient Boosting then Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), with good metrics results but the longer training time, and finally Random Forest, Linear Regression and Stochastic Gradient. All ML and DL algorithms scored good performance metrics, indicating that they are feasible for implementation on smart traffic light controllers.
Bus passenger flow prediction is a critical component of advanced transportation information system for public traffic management, control, and dispatch. With the development of artificial intelligence, many previous studies attempted to apply machine learning models to extract comprehensive correlations from transit networks to improve passenger flow prediction accuracy, given that the variety and volume of traffic data have been easily obtained. The passenger flow on a station is highly affected by various factors such as the previous time step, peak hours or nonpeak hours, and extracting the key features from the data is essential for a passenger flow prediction model. Although the neural networks,
-nearest neighbor, and some deep learning models have been adopted to mine the temporal correlations of the passenger flow data, the lack of interpretability of the influenced variables is still a big problem. Classical tree-based models can mine the correlations between variables and rank the importance of each variable. In this study, we presented a method to extract passenger flow of different routes on the station and implemented a XGBoost model to find the contributions of variables to the prediction of passenger flow. Comparing to benchmark models, the proposed model can reach state-of-the-art prediction accuracy and computational efficiency on the real-world dataset. Moreover, the XGBoost model can interpret the predicted results. It can be seen that period is the most important variable for the passenger flow prediction, and so the management of buses during peak hours should be improved.