The Logic and Study of the Diffusion of International Conflict

The aftermath of military conflict can be an occasion for transforming politics and society. In postwar Europe, aided by the Marshall Plan, statesmen such as Jean Monnet and Konrad Adenauer rebuilt the smoking ruins of an international conflict into an economic community with a strong democratic ethos, a common political identity, and a workable social balance. The old rivalries of the continent were abated by joint-security commitments, and the sense of Europe as a political space was strengthened by the human rights standards of the Helsinki process.

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Revolution, Personalist Dictatorships, and International Conflict

International Organization ◽

10.1017/s0020818314000307 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 69 (1) ◽

pp. 163-194 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Jeff D. Colgan ◽

Jessica L.P. Weeks

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

International Conflict ◽

Risk Tolerance ◽

Military Conflicts ◽

Systemic Factors ◽

Political Structures

AbstractA consensus exists that countries that have recently undergone domestic political revolutions are particularly likely to become involved in military conflicts with other states. However, scholars seek to understand when and why revolutions increase the likelihood of international violence. In contrast to existing work focusing on international systemic factors, we argue that revolution fosters conflict in part by affecting states’ domestic political structures. Previous research has shown that revolution tends to bring particularly aggressive leaders to power. We demonstrate that revolutions also frequently result in personalist dictatorships, or regimes that lack powerful institutions to constrain and punish leaders. By empowering and ensconcing leaders with revisionist preferences and high risk tolerance, revolutions that result in personalist dictatorships are significantly more likely to lead to international conflict than revolutions that culminate in other forms of government. Our arguments and evidence help explain not only why revolution so commonly leads to conflict, but also why some revolutions lead to conflict whereas others do not.

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