A Congressional Vote of No Confidence (1975)

2019 ◽  
pp. 206-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Reuss
Keyword(s):  
Congressional Vote

The Referendum Model: A 2010 Congressional Forecast

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (04) ◽  
pp. 637-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck ◽  
Charles Tien
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
Stress Prediction ◽  
Ballot Measure

Congressional election forecasting has experienced steady growth. Currently fashionable models stress prediction over explanation. The independent variables do not offer a substantive account of the election outcome. Instead, these variables aretrackingvariables—that is, indicators that may trace the result but fail to explain it. The outstanding example is the generic ballot measure, which asks respondents for whom they plan to vote in the upcoming congressional race. While this variable correlates highly with presidential party House seat share, it is bereft of substance. The generic ballot measure is the archetypical tracking variable, and it holds pride of place in the Abramowitz (2010) model. Other examples of such tracking variables are exposed seats or lagged seats, features of the Campbell (2010) model. The difficulty with such tracking models is twofold. First, they are not based on a theory of the congressional vote. Second, because they are predictive models, they offer a suboptimal forecasting instrument when compared to models specified according to strong theory.

Puerto Rican shutdown would increase default fears

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Federal Intervention ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
General Obligation Bonds ◽  
General Obligation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.

Peru's humbled Humala faces stasis in last year

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
Business Politics ◽  
Mining Projects

Significance Following a congressional vote on July 26, Luis Iberico, an opposition figure, will preside over Congress during Humala's final year in office. Hitherto, the ruling Gana Peru has retained the post that is essential to arranging parliamentary business. Politics over the next twelve months will be dominated by electioneering, possibly providing some last-minute respite for the embattled Humala. Impacts Little by way of bold legislative initiatives can be expected over the next twelve months. Candidate in-fighting will contribute nothing towards raising voters' jaundiced view of the workings of democratic institutions. Congress will remain highly fragmented over the next five-year period of government. This year and next, the economy is likely to perform poorly, although exports should increase as new mining projects come on stream.

Candidate quality and the congressional vote: A causal connection?

1996 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R Kulisheck ◽  
Jeffery J Mondak
Keyword(s):  
Causal Connection ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
Candidate Quality

scholarly journals Change in Southern Congressional Elections, 2004-2008

2010 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 179-201
Author(s):  
Charles E. Prysby ◽  
Katherine Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Analysis ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
District Level ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Central Interest ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Secondary Interest

This study examines change in southern congressional elections from 2004 to 2008 through a longitudinal analysis of district-level data. We hypothesize that change in the district congressional vote division will be influenced by: (a) change in the presidential vote in the district; and (b) change in the campaign efforts of the two parties. These are the hypotheses of central interest in this study. We also hypothesize that change in the congressional vote will be affected by: (c) the difference between the presidential and congressional vote in the district in 2004; and (d) change in the incumbency status of the two parties in the district. However, these hypotheses are of secondary interest; the variables are included primarily to make our models complete. Our findings show that change in the presidential vote had a substantial increase on the congressional vote. Change in the Democratic campaign effort also had an effect, but it was smaller than the effect of the presidential vote change. Change in the Republican campaign effort did not have a significant effect, but we urge caution in interpreting this result.

scholarly journals The Consolidation of the White Southern Congressional Vote

2005 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles S. Bullock ◽  
Donna R. Hoffman ◽  
Ronald Keith Gaddie
Keyword(s):  
Congressional Vote
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