Own-Party Bias: How Voters Evaluate Electoral Outcomes

A voluminous literature documents that citizens' perceptions of democracy are shaped by electoral victories and defeats, but what reasoning do citizens use to evaluate parties as winners or losers? Drawing on research on partisan-motivated reasoning, I propose an own-party bias in winner–loser evaluations according to which voters evaluate the electoral fate of their party more favourably than that of other parties. Data gathered in the aftermath of the Danish parliamentary election in 2015 support this expectation. Citizens are more inclined to interpret the election outcome as successful for their preferred party, regardless of the actual election result. This is more pronounced the stronger their partisan attachment and among the less politically knowledgeable, who also assign less importance to objective indicators of electoral success. The findings have implications for our understanding of electoral winners and losers and of how electoral results shape party support and polarization.

Voided Ballots in the 2012 Parliamentary Election in Serbia

The “white ballots” campaign in the 2012 parliamentary election in Serbia‎was accompanied by a change in the portion of invalid ballots, but also in‎their correlation with socio-demographic variables. When the percentage of‎invalid votes in the three previous elections is analyzed using the generalized‎least squares (GLS) multiple regression analysis, the percentage of inhabitants‎with incomplete primary education represents the best predictor. The percentage‎of individuals with primary education is also statistically relevant, just in‎the opposite (negative) direction, and less predictive. When GLS is applied to‎invalid votes in the 2012 election, incomplete primary education is positively,‎and primary education is negatively correlated with the criterion. The percentage‎of illiterates, the share of people over 65 years of age and the degree‎of urbanization are significantly, but negatively related to the criterion. The‎consequences of the 2012 election outcome were considered in the light of the‎regression to competitive authoritarianism.‎

NARRATIVES IN AMERICA: THE CONNECTION BETWEEN AFFECTIVE POLARIZATION AND VICTIMHOOD IN THE 2020 US ELECTION

This study explores the emotions, beliefs, and deep stories about the self and other that are held by individuals on the political right and left in America in order to understand the manifestation of affective polarization during divisive historical moments. It also documents expressions of victimhood, villainhood, and privilege to determine how they intersect with narratives about the ingroup and outgroup. Horwitz (2018) argues that victimhood has become a desirable status in American politics and is thus a site of contestation. Therefore, we ask: what beliefs and emotions do individuals hold about the ingroup and outgroup and how do these contribute to exacerbating affective polarization? We conducted a four-month digital ethnography before, during and after the 2020 US election and developed an innovative approach to affective discourse analysis through an iterative, grounded study in order to analyse Facebook, Twitter, and Gab content. We coded 2500 cross-partisan posts/comments that focused on the January 6 Capitol events and election outcome/fraud and were underscored by themes of race and partisanship. Individuals on the political right and left expressed deep distrust towards the outgroup but thankfulness to those speaking their own narrative. Findings also indicate that affective polarization has deeper roots in feelings of bitterness and resentment of the other. These are linked to the ingroup’s narrative of victimhood/blame and serve to strengthen the boundaries of ingroup and outgroup identities as membership in the group becomes defined in part by the recognition (or lack thereof) of that group’s pain and oppression.

German election wide open as race enters final stages

Significance The volatility of the election is underscored by the fact that first the Greens and then the CDU have led the polls since April. The election outcome will rest on the support of wavering centrist voters. Impacts A government led by the SPD is unlikely to pursue significant changes in relation to fiscal policy. As over 50% of voters will vote before election day, it will be difficult for the CDU to reverse polling trends significantly. Given the tight polling, foreign influence on social and mainstream media could determine the election result.

Tokyo election outcome weakens Suga's prospects

Significance Instead, the party scored its second-worst election performance ever. Impacts The small female share of LDP candidates elected in Tokyo makes the government's promise to promote women in politics look hollow. Tokyo Governor Koike and her Tomin First party retain enough influence in Tokyo to frustrate national government policy. If Suga is forced to resign, the leading potential successors are Toshimitsu Motegi, Fumio Kishida and Taro Kono.

Mongolia election outcome will consolidate government

Headline MONGOLIA: Election outcome will consolidate government

Uncertain Peru election outcome will strain nerves

Headline PERU: Uncertain election outcome will strain nerves

Tehran may trade turnout for safe election outcome

Headline IRAN: Guardians may trade turnout for safety