Cryosphere Services to Support SDGs in High Mountains

The cryosphere is able to provide a variety of services for the benefit of human well-being and underpins regional sustainable development. The cryosphere deterioration induced by climate change is impacting the services and will subsequently impede the efforts to meet sustainable development goals (SDGs) in high mountain societies. Here, we detail the context of cryosphere services and establish a dataset for its linkage to SDGs. This allows us to uncover its roles in supporting SDGs, directly by a causal connection and indirectly through either cascading effects or interconnection among SDGs. We find that the SDGs in association with the basic needs of high mountain societies are mostly affected by the cryosphere services. The different types of services pitch in with distinctions to be embraced by various SDGs, whilst some play a prominent role in the contribution to a broad range of SDGs. We further investigate how the services behave in their contributions to SDGs, by taking a view via the lens of a network that deciphers the relationship between the services and SDG targets as well as the interconnections among SDG targets. With an insight into the centrality and modularity of services in the network, we then delineate the inherent criticality of services to SDG targets as a whole, and reveal the specificity of services that co-contribute to a cluster of SDG targets in each network community. We take out the services from the network and maintain their interlinks to the targets of each underlying SDG system represented in six key entry points, so that the services critical to the transformation pathways in the entry points for SDGs in high mountains can be identified. Finally, we discuss the trade-offs that can occur in high mountains, which is unique for the cryosphere services. It creates more complexity in the assessment of overall benefits that the cryosphere services may provide to SDGs, and urges the balance that has to be maintained in attaining those services for the transformation.

Moral Assessments and Legal Categories

In this chapter, I examine the discussion around the rational and moral basis for legal categories in postclassical Imāmī Twelver Shīʿī legal theory. The debate was pushed forward by the Akhbārī movement in the 17th century CE; they proposed a novel position concerning the rational basis for the law in which reason can determine certain moral aspects of an action (e.g., a good action can be recognised by reason, and its performance attracts praise), but not legal elements (e.g., that the performance of a good action deserves a reward beyond praise). This leaves, for them, the Lawgiver (that is, God) to connect the moral aspects of an act with its legal consequences (that is punishment for a morally bad action and reward for a morally good action); that causal connection cannot be made by reason alone. Based on these findings, I conclude that Akhbārī moral theory, often read along literalist lines, showcases an adherence to the Muʿtazilī-derived framework common to the Imāmī Twelver Shīʿī theology and law generally, whilst also reserving ultimate legal authority to God.

Infection, inflammation and thrombosis: a review of potential mechanisms mediating arterial thrombosis associated with influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2

Thrombosis has long been reported as a potentially deadly complication of respiratory viral infections and has recently received much attention during the global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Increased risk of myocardial infarction has been reported during active infections with respiratory viruses, including influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which persists even after the virus has cleared. These clinical observations suggest an ongoing interaction between these respiratory viruses with the host’s coagulation and immune systems that is initiated at the time of infection but may continue long after the virus has been cleared. In this review, we discuss the epidemiology of viral-associated myocardial infarction, highlight recent clinical studies supporting a causal connection, and detail how the virus’ interaction with the host’s coagulation and immune systems can potentially mediate arterial thrombosis.

On Dependency between Wishes and Perception

Introduction. Empirical studies of recent years convincingly show that the character of sensory perception can be influenced by non-cognitive mental states of the agent, such as her desires. The aim of the paper is to analyze how this causal connection between agent's wishes and her sensations can affect the epistemological status of dependent sensations.Methodology and sources. The author examines S. Siegel's argument on this issue. S. Siegel argues that the empirically proven dependence of sensations on desires (wishful seeing) should lead to a decrease of the epistemological status of sensations to the same extent as the dependence of beliefs on desires (wishful thinking) leads to a decrease of the epistemological status of these beliefs. Thus Siegel's argument concludes that the phenomenon of wishful seeing deprives us of any reason to accept sensations as credible evidence of the states of the world. So, this is an argument in favor of skepticism.Results and discussion. The article discusses two main strategies for rejecting Siegel's argument. According to the first strategy proposed by R. Long, sensations are not so similar to beliefs that one can conclude that their epistemological status should be decreased on the basis of their dependence on desires. According to another strategy for refuting Siegel's argument, proposed by A. Raftopoulos, the influence of desires on perception does not extend to early vision. Early vision is free from the influence of higher order conscious mental states. The dependence of the results of sensory perception on other mental states is reduced to the influence of these states on the agent's attention. At the same time, attention can be volitionally controlled and can be trained. Therefore dependent perception under certain conditions can be rationally accepted.Conclusion. Thus, the article shows that, even though perception is dependent on other non-cognitive mental states, such as desires, this dependence does not necessarily lead to a decrease in the epistemological status of sensations, so sensations can be rationally accepted under certain conditions. This means that Siegel's argument for skepticism is not compelling.

Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century

As the leading climate mode of wintertime climate variability over Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been extensively studied over the last decades. Recently, studies highlighted the state of the Eurasian cryosphere as a possible predictor for the wintertime NAO. However, missing correlation between snow cover and wintertime NAO in climate model experiments and strong non-stationarity of this link in reanalysis data are questioning the causality of this relationship. Here we use the large ensemble of Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century (ASF-20C) with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, focusing on the winter season. Besides the main 110-year ensemble of 51 members, we investigate a second, perturbed ensemble of 21 members where initial (November) land conditions over the Northern Hemisphere are swapped from neighboring years. The Eurasian snow–NAO linkage is examined in terms of a longitudinal snow depth dipole across Eurasia. Subsampling the perturbed forecast ensemble and contrasting members with high and low initial snow dipole conditions, we found that their composite difference indicates more negative NAO states in the following winter (DJF) after positive west-to-east snow depth gradients at the beginning of November. Surface and atmospheric forecast anomalies through the troposphere and stratosphere associated with the anomalous positive snow dipole consist of colder early winter surface temperatures over eastern Eurasia, an enhanced Ural ridge and increased vertical energy fluxes into the stratosphere, with a subsequent negative NAO-like signature in the troposphere. We thus confirm the existence of a causal connection between autumn snow patterns and subsequent winter circulation in the ASF-20C forecasting system.

Essays in law and economics

<p>The thesis consists of four chapters concerning different topics of Law and Economics. The first chapter deals with economic issues in competition law. In order to distinguish predatory pricing from competition on the merits, the courts in the United States and in the European Union have established cost-based tests that also include an assessment of the market structure. The tests miss a causal connection between conduct and foreclosure. In contrast, Australia and New Zealand make use of a counterfactual analysis that establishes causality. However, the causal connection there relates to the market power and the conduct, and does not answer whether the conduct has only been done because of the foreclosure effects. A counterfactual test could be useful in predation cases if it establishes a causal link between the profitability of the conduct and the foreclosure effect. The second chapter explores the effect of excluding tort law for workplace accidents. In countries with workers’ compensation schemes, employees receive compensation for injuries at work regardless of fault, while private law liability of employers is either limited or fully excluded. The degree of liability matters for workplace safety, and different legal arrangements influence incentives of employers and employees to take care. An empirical analysis of several jurisdictions reveals a consistent pattern. The combination of arrangements that increase private law liability and mitigate moral hazard seems to be important for safety at work. No-fault workers’ compensation with the benefit of effective compensation comes with a cost: more injuries of those, which it seeks to protect. The third chapter assesses the effect of no-fault automobile insurances on safety incentives. In order to examine how no-fault motor vehicle insurance affects accident rates, insurance regimes in various countries are compared. A random effects model on fatality data of 29 countries reveals that some motor vehicle insurance systems increase moral hazard. The incentive to take care seems not to be negatively affected by no-fault rules, but by moral hazard due to limited experience rating. Restrictions on experience rating lower the level of care taken by motorists. A combination of no-fault insurance and flat-rate premiums, as found in New Zealand or the Northern Territory in Australia, has a detrimental effect on the safety of roads. The fourth chapter primarily builds on the finding of the second chapter that the exclusion of tort law for workplace injuries results in higher accident rates. In this respect, the question arises whether health and safety regulation can counteract the detrimental effect by providing deterrence from criminal sanctions. This is particularly relevant for New Zealand where a tendency of the law towards a reliance on regulation and criminal law can be observed. In practice, however, criminal law cannot fully replace common law in establishing incentives to take care, and is not as effective as private law actions.</p>

Essays in law and economics

<p>The thesis consists of four chapters concerning different topics of Law and Economics. The first chapter deals with economic issues in competition law. In order to distinguish predatory pricing from competition on the merits, the courts in the United States and in the European Union have established cost-based tests that also include an assessment of the market structure. The tests miss a causal connection between conduct and foreclosure. In contrast, Australia and New Zealand make use of a counterfactual analysis that establishes causality. However, the causal connection there relates to the market power and the conduct, and does not answer whether the conduct has only been done because of the foreclosure effects. A counterfactual test could be useful in predation cases if it establishes a causal link between the profitability of the conduct and the foreclosure effect. The second chapter explores the effect of excluding tort law for workplace accidents. In countries with workers’ compensation schemes, employees receive compensation for injuries at work regardless of fault, while private law liability of employers is either limited or fully excluded. The degree of liability matters for workplace safety, and different legal arrangements influence incentives of employers and employees to take care. An empirical analysis of several jurisdictions reveals a consistent pattern. The combination of arrangements that increase private law liability and mitigate moral hazard seems to be important for safety at work. No-fault workers’ compensation with the benefit of effective compensation comes with a cost: more injuries of those, which it seeks to protect. The third chapter assesses the effect of no-fault automobile insurances on safety incentives. In order to examine how no-fault motor vehicle insurance affects accident rates, insurance regimes in various countries are compared. A random effects model on fatality data of 29 countries reveals that some motor vehicle insurance systems increase moral hazard. The incentive to take care seems not to be negatively affected by no-fault rules, but by moral hazard due to limited experience rating. Restrictions on experience rating lower the level of care taken by motorists. A combination of no-fault insurance and flat-rate premiums, as found in New Zealand or the Northern Territory in Australia, has a detrimental effect on the safety of roads. The fourth chapter primarily builds on the finding of the second chapter that the exclusion of tort law for workplace injuries results in higher accident rates. In this respect, the question arises whether health and safety regulation can counteract the detrimental effect by providing deterrence from criminal sanctions. This is particularly relevant for New Zealand where a tendency of the law towards a reliance on regulation and criminal law can be observed. In practice, however, criminal law cannot fully replace common law in establishing incentives to take care, and is not as effective as private law actions.</p>

International economic and social determinants of the state economic security: A causal analysis

The priority task for ensuring the economic security of a country, which is especially noticeable in the rapidly changing conditions of the contemporary global world, is to forecast challenges and threats. Economic security is one of the necessary conditions for state development, which provides guidelines for making major social and economic decisions. There are a few studies on the determinants of the economic security and no data about security determinants that are required to monitor it. The study aims to identify possible links between leading determinants of the economic security. For this purpose, on the example of Ukraine, causal links between the formation of real GDP (as the leading determinant that characterizes the economic security of the state), 11 determinants that indicate the level of international economic development, and 6 determinants of social development for the period 2014–2020 were determined. With a 5% level significance, the impact on the volume of real GDP of 14 determinants of state economic security was noted and specific time lags were defined. Besides, the bilateral causal effect and lack of causal connection between individual determinants were mentioned. Findings are helpful for effective public administration. In addition, active measures are needed to combat corruption, shadow and criminal economy, and state protection of domestic producers operating in the military, food, information, and energy security sectors. AcknowledgmentAlina Bukhtiarova gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (0120U100473).