Peru's humbled Humala faces stasis in last year

Significance Following a congressional vote on July 26, Luis Iberico, an opposition figure, will preside over Congress during Humala's final year in office. Hitherto, the ruling Gana Peru has retained the post that is essential to arranging parliamentary business. Politics over the next twelve months will be dominated by electioneering, possibly providing some last-minute respite for the embattled Humala. Impacts Little by way of bold legislative initiatives can be expected over the next twelve months. Candidate in-fighting will contribute nothing towards raising voters' jaundiced view of the workings of democratic institutions. Congress will remain highly fragmented over the next five-year period of government. This year and next, the economy is likely to perform poorly, although exports should increase as new mining projects come on stream.

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Teye Amoatey ◽  
Samuel Famiyeh ◽  
Peter Andoh

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the critical risk factors affecting mining projects in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach A purposive sampling approach was used in selecting the respondents for the study. These were practitioners working on mining projects in Ghana. Findings The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical mining project risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were unstable commodity prices, inflation/exchange rate, land degradation, high cost of living and government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were identified. Research limitations/implications This paper is limited to data collected from practitioners working on mining projects. Due to geographic and logistical constraints, the study did not include the perception of local communities in quantifying the risk factors. Practical implications This paper has documented the critical risk factor affecting the mining industry in Ghana. Though the identified risk types are also prevalent in other sectors of the construction industry, the key findings of this paper emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the mining sector. From an academic research perspective, the paper contributes to a conceptual risk assessment framework. Originality/value The information gathered through this research can be utilized in identifying and understanding risks during the early stages of mining project implementation.


Significance Research by Thomas Piketty shows that a form of free-market ideology has been a key driver of rising income inequality since the 1980s. The airing of alternative ideas, the challenge of decarbonising economies and the potential for the COVID-19 crisis to reset politics raise the prospect of a paradigm shift. Impacts In much of the global South, borrowing constraints and obstacles to taxing the wealthy will make redistribution harder. Strengthening democratic institutions may be as important as strengthening pro-equity political parties to advance redistributive agendas. Political parties in OECD nations have focused on ‘identity’ issues since the 1980s; COVID-19 is bringing redistribution back to the fore.


Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.


Subject Local vetoes on mining activities. Significance Local governments opposed to mining projects planned in their districts have been awarded new powers to derail developments through a series of decisions from the Constitutional Court. On July 29, authorities in Tolima became the first to leverage one such decision in order to approve plans for a referendum over a proposed local ban on mining activity. Impacts Even firms with strong central government support will have scant protection from regulatory risk. Mining companies may see legal costs mount as they prepare appeals against court rulings that could undermine the viability of projects. Delays will further undermine government efforts to bolster Colombia's economy via the expansion of this strategic industry.


Subject Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Jerusalem. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's July 18-20 visit to Jerusalem invited a great deal of controversy, largely related to his approach to Hungary’s interwar history and erosion of democratic institutions. An ideological affinity and common strategic interests support a warm long-term relationship. Impacts Following the examples of Austria, Poland and Hungary, other CE countries will strengthen their relationship with Israel. Common positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will become increasingly difficult to forge at international forums, including the EU. The profiles of small-country leaders with an illiberal outlook will rise as they show a united front on more issues.


Significance On the agenda is the issue of legislation on open-pit mining and the stopping of the export of unprocessed ores. This follows Cimatu’s confirmation in post by the Commission on Appointments on October 4. Previously acting secretary, Cimatu replaced the controversial Regina Lopez, who was not confirmed as environment secretary earlier this year. The Philippine mining industry was wary of Lopez’s pro-environment, anti-mining policies, and now wants to see what Cimatu’s plans are. Impacts Under Cimatu, mining firms could gain more opportunities to engage with policymakers. Environmental and anti-mining groups will see Cimatu’s appointment as a betrayal; protests are possible at mining projects. Peace in Mindanao would unlock an estimated 1 trillion dollars in untapped mineral resources.


Significance GDP growth has slowed from a peak of 17.5% in 2011 to around 7.0% last year. Foreign investment, which has driven growth, has fallen steeply and external conditions have weakened. Legislative moves to revive interest have had little to no effect. The government in Ulan Bator is talking to the IMF about possible assistance, and Mongolians have been polled by text message in a bid to confirm popular support for getting crucial mining projects moving again. Impacts Ulan Bator has to address the recent jailing of foreign nationals and the negative impact on Mongolia's image. The text message referendum suggests refinement is needed to make future initiatives in direct democracy credible. Criticism of the legal process leading to imprisonment of former mining executives could result in changes to the law.


Significance The Kenyatta-Odinga meeting was related to a visit by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. However, it appears to have been driven more by domestic politics and a desire to outflank any potential alliance between Deputy President William Ruto and Odinga’s NASA allies. NASA is fragmenting, bringing more fluidity to political alliances and underscoring the inherent uncertainty of electoral politics in Kenya. Impacts Effective pressure by Western envoys (especially the United States) improves the prospects for continued de-escalation. Tillerson’s early end to his unremarkable tour underscores a lack of interest in key African partners and will further dilute US influence. US calls for strong democratic institutions may ring hollow against African perceptions of the US president’s dismissal of these at home.


Subject Political purge. Significance Ecuador’s Supreme Court on November 7 ordered former President Rafael Correa (2007-17) to stand trial for his alleged involvement in the kidnapping of a political opponent in 2012. The order comes amid increasing efforts by President Lenin Moreno to purge Correa supporters from the government, legislature and bureaucracy and consolidate power. Correa, who now lives in Belgium, is out of reach of Moreno and the Supreme Court, but his popularity and influence in Ecuador endures and will cause ongoing problems for Moreno. Impacts The risk of political violence will increase as Correa and his supporters are locked out of formal political institutions. Correa will find it easier to claim political persecution if attacks against him and his supporters escalate. The arbitrary use of measures to purge Correa supporters from the state risks undermining trust in democratic institutions.


Significance Opposition to mining, sometimes violent, has proved a deterrent to investment. As mineral prices, especially for copper, have increased substantially, the mining ministry hopes to raise the threshold for new investment this year and next. Impacts The offer of cash will do little to resolve existing disputes over mining. The scale of new investment will be determined primarily by anticipated patterns of demand. In the medium term, there will be a shortfall in new mining projects once those under construction come on stream.


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