Spatial interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: a case study of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

Abstract. Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (krigings) are widely used in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. However, the majority of existing geostatistical algorithms are available only for single-moment data. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually uses only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. In this study, we used daily rainfall data from 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2). This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, Cressie's Approximate Weighted Least Squares method was used to fit seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical) to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. Seven selected raingages were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to many degenerated-raingage cases. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) algorithms outperformed considerably interpolation with the Thiessen polygon that is commonly used in various hydrological models. Kriging with an External Drift (KED) and Ordinary Cokriging (OCK) presented the highest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the geostatistical and IDW methods. Ordinary Kriging (ORK) and IDW were considered to be the best methods, as they provided smallest RMSE value for nearly all cases.

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Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-15-2259-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 15 (7) ◽

pp. 2259-2274 ◽

Cited By ~ 163

Author(s):

S. Ly ◽

C. Charles ◽

A. Degré

Keyword(s):

Ordinary Kriging ◽

Spatial Interpolation ◽

Gaussian Model ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Spherical Model ◽

Daily Basis ◽

Catchment Scale ◽

Multivariate Geostatistics ◽

Variogram Models ◽

Thiessen Polygon

Abstract. Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (kriging) are widely applied in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually used only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. This study leaned on 30-yr daily rainfall data of 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2). This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical) were fitted to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. These seven variogram models were also adopted to avoid negative interpolated rainfall. The elevation, extracted from a digital elevation model, was incorporated into multivariate geostatistics. Seven validation raingages and cross validation were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to different densities of raingages. We found that between the seven variogram models used, the Gaussian model was the most frequently best fit. Using seven variogram models can avoid negative daily rainfall in ordinary kriging. The negative estimates of kriging were observed for convective more than stratiform rain. The performance of the different methods varied slightly according to the density of raingages, particularly between 8 and 70 raingages but it was much different for interpolation using 4 raingages. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) algorithms outperformed considerably the interpolation with the Thiessen polygon, commonly used in various hydrological models. Integrating elevation into Kriging with an External Drift (KED) and Ordinary Cokriging (OCK) did not improve the interpolation accuracy for daily rainfall. Ordinary Kriging (ORK) and IDW were considered to be the best methods, as they provided smallest RMSE value for nearly all cases. Care should be taken in applying UNK and KED when interpolating daily rainfall with very few neighbourhood sample points. These recommendations complement the results reported in the literature. ORK, UNK and KED using only spherical model offered a slightly better result whereas OCK using seven variogram models achieved better result.

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Novel Optimization-Based Parameter Estimation Method for the Bass Diffusion Model

SAGE Open ◽

10.1177/21582440211026954 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 215824402110269

Author(s):

Lang Liang

Keyword(s):

Parameter Estimation ◽

Least Squares Method ◽

Weighted Least Squares ◽

Estimation Method ◽

Reference Value ◽

Diffusion Problem ◽

Bass Model ◽

Weighted Least Squares Method ◽

Estimated Parameters ◽

Bass Diffusion Model

The Bass model is the most popular model for forecasting the diffusion process of a new product. However, the controlling parameters in it are unknown in practice and need to be determined in advance. Currently, the estimation of the controlling parameters has been approached by various techniques. In this case, a novel optimization-based parameter estimation (OPE) method for the Bass model is proposed in the theoretical framework of system dynamics ( SD). To do this, the SD model of the Bass differential equation is first established and then the corresponding optimization mathematical model is formulated by introducing the controlling parameters as design variable and the discrepancy of the adopter function to the reference value as objective function. Using the VENSIM software, the present SD optimization model is solved, and its effectiveness and accuracy are demonstrated by two examples: one involves the exact solution and another is related to the actual user diffusion problem from Chinese Mobile. The results show that the present OPE method can produce higher predicting accuracy of the controlling parameters than the nonlinear weighted least squares method and the genetic algorithms. Moreover, the reliability interval of the estimated parameters and the goodness of fitting of the optimal results are given as well to further demonstrate the accuracy of the present OPE method.

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