Simulation of Severe Thunderstorms in Conjugation of Westerly and Easterly on 31 March 2019 in Bangladesh

The diagnostic and prognostic studies of thunderstorms/squalls are very important to save live and loss of properties. The present study aims at diagnose the different tropospheric parameters, instability and synoptic conditions associated the severe thunderstorms with squalls, which occurred at different places in Bangladesh on 31 March 2019. For prognostic purposes, the severe thunderstorms occurred on 31 March 2019 have been numerically simulated. In this regard, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to predict different atmospheric conditions associated with the severe storms. The study domain is selected for 9 km horizontal resolution, which almost covers the south Asian region. Numerical experiments have been conducted with the combination of WRF single-moment 6 class (WSM6) microphysics scheme with Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme in simulation of the squall events. Model simulated results are compared with the available observations. The observed values of CAPE at Kolkata both at 0000 and 1200 UTC were 2680.4 and 3039.9 J kg-1 respectively on 31 March 2019 and are found to be comparable with the simulated values. The area averaged actual rainfall for 24 hrs is found is 22.4 mm, which complies with the simulated rainfall of 20-25 mm for 24 hrs. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 29-43

In a Stationary Population, the Average Lifespan of the Living Is a Length-Biased Life Expectancy

What is the average lifespan in a stationary population viewed at a single moment in time? Even though periods and cohorts are identical in a stationary population, we show that the answer to this question is not life expectancy but a length-biased version of life expectancy. That is, the distribution of lifespans of the people alive at a single moment is a self-weighted distribution of cohort lifespans, such that longer lifespans have proportionally greater representation. One implication is that if death rates are unchanging, the average lifespan of the current population always exceeds period life expectancy. This result connects stationary population lifespan measures to a well-developed body of statistical results; provides new intuition for established demographic results; generates new insights into the relationship between periods, cohorts, and prevalent cohorts; and offers a framework for thinking about mortality selection more broadly than the concept of demographic frailty.

A Postmodern Cultural Study of Media Manipulation and Capital Market Expansion

Media manipulation is rampant in the present postmodern culture since people are constantly monitored by screens due to the advancement of technology. In the postmodern world, the media have become an inseparable part of everyday life, where there is hardly any scope to spend a single moment without the screen and media. Thus, the current researcher got the impetus to unravel the media's simulated world, which uses images, advertisements, and signs to expand global capitalism. The objective of the study is to explore inquisitively the power and influence of the media and the way these are used to manipulate people. This is a qualitative study that delves into media politics and media economy in an investigative way to uncover the covert targets of the media. The study's major finding is that the media play a vital role in attracting consumers and expanding world commercialism in today’s globalized world. Several modern and postmodern writings were extensively studied to scrutinize the manifold facets of media manipulation through different presentations of print and visual formats.

Modified high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy versus conventional oxygen therapy in patients undergoing bronchoscopy: a randomized clinical trial

Background Hypoxemia frequently occurs during bronchoscopy. High-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) oxygen therapy may be a feasible alternative to prevent the deterioration of gas exchange during bronchoscopy. With the convenience of clinical use in mind, we modified an HFNC using a single cannula. This clinical trial was designed to test the hypothesis that a modified HFNC would decrease the proportion of patients with a single moment of peripheral arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2) < 90% during bronchoscopy. Methods In this single-center, prospective randomized controlled trial, hospitalized patients in the respiratory department in need of diagnostic bronchoscopy were randomly assigned to a modified HFNC oxygen therapy group or a conventional oxygen therapy (COT) group. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with a single moment of SpO2 < 90% during bronchoscopy. Results Eight hundred and twelve patients were randomized to the modified HFNC (n = 406) or COT (n = 406) group. Twenty-four patients were unable to cooperate or comply with bronchoscopy. Thus, 788 patients were included in the analysis. The proportion of patients with a single moment of SpO2 < 90% during bronchoscopy in the modified HFNC group was significantly lower than that in the COT group (12.5% vs. 28.8%, p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in the fraction of inspired oxygen between the two groups. The lowest SpO2 during bronchoscopy and 5 min after bronchoscopy in the modified HFNC group was significantly higher than that in the COT group. Multivariate analysis showed that a baseline forced vital capacity (FVC) < 2.7 L (OR, 0.276; 95% CI, 0.083–0.919, p = 0.036) and a volume of fluid instilled > 60 ml (OR, 1.034; 95% CI, 1.002–1.067, p = 0.036) were independent risk factors for hypoxemia during bronchoscopy in the modified HFNC group. Conclusions A modified HFNC could decrease the proportion of patients with a single moment of SpO2 < 90% during bronchoscopy. A lower baseline FVC and large-volume bronchoalveolar lavage may predict desaturation during bronchoscopy when using a modified HFNC. Trial registration ClinicalTrials. Gov: NCT02606188. Registered 17 November 2015.

Marrying in a single moment: Zimbabwean Baptist ethics and the management of kin relations

Scholarship about Southern Africa registers a persistent tension between the prospect of relations created in a processual manner over time and the role of discrete ritual or lifecycle events. Marriage is one of the sites where this tension becomes particularly evident, not only in bridewealth transactions but also in an increasing prominence given to European-style ‘white weddings’. For Baptist Christians living in urban Zimbabwe, the tension raises a host of ethical considerations. This group of Christians seeks to establish and maintain social relations that they value for cultural and for religious reasons, while also facing the ethical task of moderating the degree of obligation that these relations can exert over them. They do so in order to maintain the moral autonomy necessary to live ethical Baptist lives, and attempt to achieve this goal by creating marriages according to a model of immediate transformation, rather than one of gradual unfolding. I suggest that drawing from recent discussions in the anthropological study of ethics offers a way to discuss choice and evaluation in marriage practice in ways not reducible to class interest or social and material expediency alone.

Darwin's Orchids

Is there a queer Darwin? It is often assumed that Darwinian biology is an ally of conservative approaches to sexuality and gender. The Christian legal framework known as natural law philosophy, for instance, reads Darwin as a champion of heterosexual coupling, proving the biological imperative of straight sex. Some feminist readings of Darwin (such as that of Elizabeth Grosz) find in Darwin a confirmation of the necessity of sexual difference organized around masculinity and femininity—an approach Myra Hird has called the “ontology of heterosexuality.” But these interpretations are incorrect. Schaefer argues that far from being an advocate for the ontology of heterosexuality, Darwin provides tools to demolish it. Turning to his research on barnacles and orchids and his speculation on the sources of organic variation, this essay highlights the irreducible importance of diversity and change for Darwin's framework. The ongoing ferment of variation that is the guideline of all life on earth extends not only to the morphology of sex organs but to desire itself. Darwin shows that the ontology of heterosexuality is an arbitrary snapshot, a single moment in the fluid trajectory of life, rather than a law that can be arbitrarily cast over the whole arc. In this, Darwin supports Eve Kosofsky Sedgwick's first axiom for queer theory: “People are different from each other.” The essay concludes by connecting a Darwinian approach to sex with José Esteban Muñoz's call for a queer ecstasy that anticipates the futurity of desire.

Creatio Continua and Quantum Randomness

Some thinkers in the Christian and Islamic traditions assert that God doesn’t only create the universe ex nihilo, but that he also continuously recreates the universe in order to preserve its existence. This chapter will discuss randomness vis-à-vis the doctrine of continuous creation as understood in both religious traditions. We argue that the doctrine of continuous creation in its version that is held by both Christians and Muslims would preclude ontic quantum randomness. The reason is that in the doctrine of continuous creation, God is ultimately and meticulously responsible for the existence of objects and properties at every single moment.

The Timing of Research Consent

This essay is about the timing of research consent, a process that involves (potential) participants being given information about, among other things, upcoming research interventions and then being invited to waive their claims against those interventions being undertaken. The standard practice, as regards timing, is as follows: (potential) participants are invited to waive all their claims at a single moment in time, and that point in time immediately follows the information-provision. I argue that there we’re not justified in keeping to this practice. What we ought to do is disaggregate the claim-waiving part of the process and move it later, such that the (potential) participant is invited to waive her claim against the undertaking of any given intervention only the immediate moment before that intervention is to be undertaken.

Attention-TCN-BiGRU: An Air Target Combat Intention Recognition Model

The prerequisite for victory in war is the rapid and accurate identification of the tactical intention of the target on the battlefield. The efficiency of manual recognition of the combat intention of air targets is becoming less and less effective with the advent of information warfare. Moreover, if the traditional method of combat intention of air targets is based only on data from a single moment in time, the characteristic information on the time-series data is difficult to capture effectively. In this context, we design a new deep learning method attention mechanism with temporal convolutional network and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (Attention-TCN-BiGRU) to improve the recognition of the combat intent of air targets. Specifically, suitable characteristics are selected based on the combat mission and air posture to construct a characteristic set of air target intentions and encode them into temporal characteristics. Each characteristic in the characteristic set is given an appropriate weight through the attention mechanism. In addition, temporal convolutional network (TCN) is used to mine the data for latent characteristics and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) is used to capture long-term dependencies in the data. Experiments comparing with other methods and ablation demonstrate that Attention-TCN-BiGRU outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy in recognizing target intent in the air.

Demonstration of the Temporal Evolution of Tropical Cyclone “Phailin” Using Gray-Zone Simulations and Decadal Variability of Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal in a Warming Climate

The intensity and frequency variability of cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) have been amplified over the last few decades. The number of very severe cyclonic storms (VSCSs) over the North Indian Ocean has increased over recent decades. “Phailin”, an extreme severe cyclonic storm (ESCS), occurred during 8–13 October 2013 over the Bay of Bengal and made landfall near the Gopalpur coast of Odisha at 12 UTC on 12 October. It caused severe damage here, as well as in the coastal Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and adjoining regions due to strong wind gusts (~115 knot/h), heavy precipitation, and devastating storm surges. The fidelity of the WRF model in simulating the track and intensity of tropical cyclones depends on different cloud microphysical parameterization schemes. Thus, four sensitivity simulations were conducted for Phailin using double-moment and single-moment microphysical (MP) parameterization schemes. The experiments were conducted to quantify and characterize the performance of such MP schemes for Phailin. The simulations were performed by the advanced weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The model has two interactive domains covering the entire Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Odisha on 25 km and 8.333 km resolutions. Milbrandt–Yau (MY) double-moment and WRF single-moment microphysical schemes, with 6, 5, and 3 classes of hydrometeors, i.e., WSM6, WSM5, and WSM3, were used for the simulation. Experiments for Phailin were conducted for 126 h, starting from 00 UTC 08 October to 06 UTC 13 October 2013. It was found that the track, intensity, and structure of Phailin are highly sensitive to the different microphysical parameterization schemes. Further, the precipitation and cloud distribution were studied during the ESCS stage of Phailin. The microphysics schemes (MY, WSM3, WSM5, WSM6), along with Grell–Devenyi ensemble convection scheme predicted landfall of Phailin over the Odisha coast with significant track errors. Supply of moisture remains a more crucial component than SST and wind shear for rapid intensification of the Phailin 12 h before landfall over the Bay of Bengal. Finally, the comparison of cyclone formation between two decades 2001–2010 and 2011–2020 over the Bay of Bengal inferred that the increased numbers of VSCS are attributed to the supply of abundant moisture at low levels in the recent decade 2011–2020.