scholarly journals Influência do el niño e la niña no número de dias de precipitação pluviométrica do estado do Mato Grosso do Sul

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Nayhara De Lima Oliveira ◽  
Francisco Fernando Noronha Marcuzzo

ResumoUm melhor detalhamento do comportamento da precipitação pluvial pode ser obtido com o estudo do NDC (Número de Dias de Chuva) e a sua correlação com fenômenos climáticos. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo correlacionar a variação do NDC no Estado do Mato Grosso do Sul com a intensidade do Índice Oceânico Niño(a) (ION). Utilizaram-se dados de 37 estações pluviométricas com 30 anos de dados e 55 estações com dados variando de 20 a 29 anos, sendo que toda série histórica está entre os anos de 1977 a 2006. No período de 1977 a 2006 o ION mensal médio variou entre -1,1°C e 1,3°C, variações consideradas moderadas, com algumas variações consideradas fortes nos anos de 1982 (2,3°C), 1983 (2,3°C). 1988 (-1,9°C), 1991 (1,6°C), 1992 (1,8°C), 1997 (2,5°C), 1998 (2,3°C), 1999/2000 (-1,6°C) e 2002 (1,5°C). Observa-se que o NDC de cada ano do período não tem uma relação direta com os fenômenos El Niño e La Niña, já que a linha de tendência polinomial de segunda ordem pouco variou.Palavras-chave: Temperatura do Oceano Pacífico, ENOS, Número de Dias de Chuva, Climatologia. AbstractA more detailed behavior of rainfall can be obtained from the study of Number of Days Rain (NDC) and its correlation with weather phenomena. This study aimed to correlate the variation of the NDC in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul with the intensity Niño Index (a). We used data from 37 rainfall stations with 30 years of data and 55 stations with data ranging from 20 to 29 years, and throughout this series between the years 1977 to 2006. In the period 1977 to 2006 the average monthly Niño índex ranged between -1,1°C and 1,3°C, variations considered moderate, with some variations considered strong in the years 1982 (2.3°C), 1983 (2.3°C), 1988(-1.9°C), 1991 (1.6°C), 1992 (1,8°C), 1997 (2.5°C), 1998 (2.3°C), 1999/2000 (-1.6°C) and 2002 (1.5°C). It is observed that in general the NDC for each year of the period has a direct relationship with El Niño and La Niña, since the polynomial trendline second order changed little. Key-words: Temperature of the Pacific Ocean, ENSO, Number of Days of Rain, Climatology ResumenUn comportamiento más detallado de la precipitación se pueden obtener a partir del estudio de Número de días de lluvia (NDL) y su correlación con los fenómenos meteorológicos. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo relacionar la variación de lo NDL en el estado de Mato Grosso do Sul, con la intensidad de El Niño Index (a). Se utilizaron los datos de 37 estaciones pluviométricas con 30 años de datos y 55 estaciones con datos de entre 20 y 29 años (1977 y 2006). En el período de 1977 a 2006, el índice de El Niño (a) promedio mensual osciló entre -1,1°C y 1,3° C, las variaciones considera moderado, con algunas variaciones consideradas fuerte en 1982 (2,3°C), 1983 (2,3°C). 1988 (-1,9°C), 1991 (1,6°C), 1992 (1,8°C), 1997 (2,5°C), 1998 (2,3°C), 1999/2000 (-1,6°C) y 2002 (1,5°C). Se observa que, en general, el NDC para cada año del período tiene una relación directa con El Niño y La Niña, ya que la línea de tendencia polinómica de segundo orden ha cambiado poco.Palabras clave: Temperatura del Océano Pacífico, ENSO, número de días de lluvia, Climatologia. 

Author(s):  
Cynthia Rosenzweig ◽  
Daniel Hillel

Perturbations of the climate system caused by El Niño and La Niña events affect natural and managed systems in vast areas of the Pacific Ocean and far beyond it. (Other oscillations affect systems and sectors in wide swaths of the world as well.)1 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have been associated with ecosystem disruptions and forest fires, crop failures and famines, disease epidemics, and even market fluctuations in various regions. The forms and degrees of impact depend not only on the strength and duration of an El Niño or La Niña event and its associated teleconnections, but also on the state, sensitivity, and vulnerability of the affected system and its biotic community, as well as its human population. The underlying characteristics of ecosystems and human societies in each region are important factors in their susceptibility to ENSO-related damages. Variation may be enhanced as ENSO effects ripple through natural and managed ecosystems. The underlying health of the affected biota, interrelationships among different biotic associations, and pressure by humans all affect marine as well as terrestrial ecosystem responses to ENSO events. Impacts on human systems can be both direct and indirect. Some ENSO phenomena, such as severe storms, affect human lives and infrastructures directly. Other impacts occur through alterations in the marine and terrestrial ecosystems and water supplies upon which human populations ultimately depend. In this chapter we consider some of the impacts that ENSO and other oscillations (described with their teleconnections in chapter 1) have on marine and terrestrial ecosystems and on human-managed systems apart from agriculture. The significant and geographically widespread changes that El Niño events induce in the Pacific Ocean alter conditions for various marine communities. These alterations include dramatic changes in the abundance and distribution of organisms, associated collapses of commercial fisheries, and ensuing consequences affecting human livelihood (Glantz, 2004; Lehodey et al., 2006). Some of the effects are well documented. Reductions in primary production of up to 95% were measured in the eastern equatorial Pacific in 1982–83 (Barber and Chavez, 1983.) Large changes in ecosystem structure and productivity have also been recorded in other parts of the Pacific Ocean, including the western Pacific and in the North Pacific subtropical gyre (north of the Hawaiian Islands) (Karl et al., 1995).


Author(s):  
Maksim Yurievich Chervyakov ◽  
◽  
Anastasia Andreevna Spiryakhina ◽  

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 01-08
Author(s):  
Laércio Yudi Watanabe Silva ◽  
Margarete Cristiane de Costa Trindade Amorim

This paper analyzes the climate elements of Presidente Prudente in two moments: under the actions of La Niña, between 2007 and 2008, and El Niño, 2015 and 2016. The time frame used in both periods is of 12 months. The general objective is to analyze the variability of the climate elements in the city underthe action of both of these phenomena that occur in the Pacific Ocean and that have repercussions in the climate on a planetary scale. The methodology used was the collection and processing of the monthly data of the climate elements in both periods, having as source the automatic meteorological station of the National Institute of Meteorology (Brazilian acronym: INMET) –A707 –P.P –SP. The data enabled the elaboration of tables of every period, for comparative purposes. The analyses shown in this paper enable the identification of possible variations in the climate elements resulting from the oscillations originated by the phenomena El Niñoand La Ninã.


2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe

Warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (24) ◽  
pp. 6433-6438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar G. Pavia ◽  
Federico Graef ◽  
Jorge Reyes

Abstract The role of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Mexican climate anomalies during winter and summer is investigated. The precipitation and mean temperature data of approximately 1000 stations throughout Mexico are considered. After sorting ENSO events by warm phase (El Niño) and cold phase (La Niña) and prevailing PDO phase: warm or high (HiPDO) and cold or low (LoPDO), the authors found the following: 1) For precipitation, El Niño favors wet conditions during summers of LoPDO and during winters of HiPDO. 2) For mean temperature, cooler conditions are favored during La Niña summers and during El Niño winters, regardless of the PDO phase; however, warmer conditions are favored by the HiPDO during El Niño summers.


2015 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nayhara De Lima Oliveira ◽  
Francisco Fernando Noronha Marcuzzo ◽  
Rosana Gonçalves Barros
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  

Acta Iguazu ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-66
Author(s):  
João Danilo Barbieri ◽  
Rivanildo Dallacort ◽  
Paulo Sérgio Lourenço de Freitas ◽  
Rafael Cesar Tieppo ◽  
Maria Carolina Da Silva Andrea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  

Este trabalho teve como objetivo estimar a produtividade da soja e milho “safrinha” baseada em simulação realizada com os modelos CROPGRO-Soybean e CERES-Maize, respectivamente, incluído no Sistema de Suporte para Transferência de Agrotecnologia (DSSAT) v.4.6.1 considerando diferentes datas de semeaduras, sob os efeitos climáticos ocasionados pelos fenômenos ENOS (El niño Oscilação Sul) para os municípios de Rondonópolis, Sinop e Tangará da Serra. Os dados de calibração e validação do modelo foram adquiridos em experimentos de campo nas safras 2015/2016, realizados em área experimental da UNEMAT campus de Tangará da Serra, foram semeados três cultivares de soja com ciclos tardios médios e precoce, para quatro datas, e após a colheita de cada época foram semeados três híbridos de milho também com ciclos distintos, para quatro datas de semeadura, os dados meteorológicos foram monitorados por uma estação meteorológica instalada ao lado do experimento. Os modelos mostraram ser uma excelente ferramenta para a previsão do rendimento da soja e do milho “safrinha”, utilizando-se dados meteorológicos do ano em questão. Após a calibração foram simuladas 6 datas para cada cultura dividido em anos de ocorrência de El niño, La niña e Neutros, para os três municípios. Para a cultura da soja a variabilidade climática ocorrente dos fenômenos ENOS provocam maiores oscilações de produtividades aumentando os riscos de perdas por semeaduras antecipadas (22/09 e 06/10). Para a cultura do milho safrinha em todos os eventos climáticos analisados as melhores épocas foram 20/01 e 01/02 para todos os municípios.


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