The Increased Likelihood in the 21st Century for a Tropical Cyclone to Rapidly Intensify When Crossing a Warm Ocean Feature—A Simple Model’s Prediction

A warm ocean feature (WOF) is a blob of the ocean’s surface where the sea-surface temperature (SST) is anomalously warmer than its adjacent ambient SST. Examples are warm coastal seas in summer, western boundary currents, and warm eddies. Several studies have suggested that a WOF may cause a crossing tropical cyclone (TC) to undergo rapid intensification (RI). However, testing the “WOF-induced RI” hypothesis is difficult due to many other contributing factors that can cause RI. The author develops a simple analytical model with ocean feedback to estimate TC rapid intensity change across a WOF. It shows that WOF-induced RI is unlikely in the present climate when the ambient SST is ≲29.5 °C and the WOF anomaly is ≲+1 °C. This conclusion agrees well with the result of a recent numerical ensemble experiment. However, the simple model also indicates that RI is very sensitive to the WOF anomaly, much more so than the ambient SST. Thus, as coastal seas and western boundary currents are warming more rapidly than the adjacent open oceans, the model suggests a potentially increased likelihood in the 21st century of WOF-induced RIs across coastal seas and western boundary currents. Particularly vulnerable are China’s and Japan’s coasts, where WOF-induced RI events may become more common.

Observed Deep Cyclonic Eddies around Southern Greenland

Recent mooring measurements from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program have revealed abundant cyclonic eddies at both sides of Cape Farewell, the southern tip of Greenland. In this study, we present further observational evidence, from both Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives, of deep cyclonic eddies with intense rotation (𝜁/f > 1) around southern Greenland and into the Labrador Sea. Most of the observed cyclones exhibit strongest rotation below the surface (700-1000 dbar), where maximum azimuthal velocities are ~30 cm/s at radii of ~10 km, with rotational periods of 2-3 days. The cyclonic rotation can extend to the deep overflow water layer (below 1800 dbar), albeit with weaker azimuthal velocities (~10 cm/s) and longer rotational periods of about one week. Within the mid-depth rotation cores, the cyclones are in near solid-body rotation and have the potential to trap and transport water. The first high-resolution hydrographic transect across such a cyclone indicates that it is characterized by a local (both vertically and horizontally) potential vorticity maximum in its core and cold, fresh anomalies in the overflow water layer, suggesting its source as the Denmark Strait outflow. Additionally, the propagation and evolution of the cyclonic eddies are illustrated with deep Lagrangian floats, including their detachments from the boundary currents to the basin interior. Taken together, the combined Eulerian and Lagrangian observations have provided new insights on the boundary current variability and boundary-interior exchange over a geographically large scale near southern Greenland, calling for further investigations on the (sub)mesoscale dynamics in the region.

On the Importance of High-Resolution in Large-Scale Ocean Models

Eddying global ocean models are now routinely used for ocean prediction, and the value-added of a better representation of the observed ocean variability and western boundary currents at that resolution is currently being evaluated in climate models. This overview article begins with a brief summary of the impact on ocean model biases of resolving eddies in several global ocean-sea ice numerical simulations. Then, a series of North and Equatorial Atlantic configurations are used to show that an increase of the horizontal resolution from eddy-resolving to submesoscale-enabled together with the inclusion of high-resolution bathymetry and tides significantly improve the models’ abilities to represent the observed ocean variability and western boundary currents. However, the computational cost of these simulations is extremely large, and for these simulations to become routine, close collaborations with computer scientists are essential to ensure that numerical codes can take full advantage of the latest computing architecture.

Scale of oceanic eddy killing by wind from global satellite observations

Wind is the primary driver of the oceanic general circulation, yet the length scales at which this energy transfer occurs are unknown. Using satellite data and a recent method to disentangle multiscale processes, we find that wind deposits kinetic energy into the geostrophic ocean flow only at scales larger than 260 km, on a global average. We show that wind removes energy from scales smaller than 260 km at an average rate of −50 GW, a process known as eddy killing. To our knowledge, this is the first objective determination of the global eddy killing scale. We find that eddy killing is taking place at almost all times but with seasonal variability, peaking in winter, and it removes a substantial fraction (up to 90%) of the wind power input in western boundary currents. This process, often overlooked in analyses and models, is a major dissipation pathway for mesoscales, the ocean’s most energetic scales.

Sustained Open Access Global Wave Observations for Science and Society

Studies of the generation and propagation of surface waves in the open ocean have been traditionally supported by sparse observations. Wave climatology is only known through data from expensive and heavy open ocean moorings, often not optimized for observing surface waves, coastal wave observing networks, or from satellites that can only measure the wave's amplitude. Yet, knowledge of wave physics is of fundamental importance to understand how the ocean and the atmosphere are coupled and to quantify, for example, exchanges of gas and momentum. Of similar importance is understanding how oceanic mesoscale, such as eddies and boundary currents, affect wave steepness and propagation; ultimately important to quantify, for example, hazards to navigation and to protect coastal communities from floods. Scientific advances in data assimilation and wave resolving models, which are supported by our visionary approach, are needed to improve coupled models to support extreme events modeling and forecasting and for improving climate assessment. In-situ global wave observations are one of the obviously missing key ingredients that are hampering progress in oceanography, meteorology, and climate sciences.