This article describes the methodological aspects and some results of the assessment and prediction of the geodynamic stability of the geological environment as applied to the problem of ensuring the safety of underground isolation of high-level radioactive waste (HLRW) in the geological formations of the Nizhnekansky massif, Krasnoyarsk Region. For this, the authors introduced a basic concept of the stability of the geological environment. Based on instrumental observations, mathematical models, system analysis of geospatial data, the ranking of structural tectonic blocks according to the degree of stability and the geodynamic zoning of the northern part of the Nizhnekansky massif were implemented. To assess the stability, the authors used geological data, a digital elevation model, the results of the interpretation of geophysical fields and geodetic observations. It is shown that the stability of the blocks differs significantly according to kinematic parameters. Geodetic observations based on GPS/GLONASS satellite systems, carried out in 2010-2019, made it possible to obtain for the first time information on the rates of horizontal movements of the lithosphere and their cyclicity for the region located in the zone of force interaction of the largest tectonic structures, namely, Siberian platform, West Siberian plate and the Altai-Sayan Orogen. The maximum speeds were recorded for points located in the zone of dynamic influence of the Muratovsky and Pravoberezhny faults. The energy concentration criteria as the fracturability characteristics of structural rock blocks are proposed for the stress–strain analysis of rock mass. To substantiate the long-term geodynamic safety of deep disposals of HLRW of the 1st and 2nd classes, the authors developed a program for the long-term observations of differentiated movements in the earth’s crust and seismic activity for 2021–2026 in an underground research laboratory. The study was carried out under the state contract between the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation.
Geological Disposal of the High-level Radioactive Waste from the View Point of Long-term Stability of the Geological Environment
