scholarly journals Environmental niche modeling; present and future potential distribution of garter snakes species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

Author(s):  
Andrea González Fernández ◽  
Javier Manjarrez ◽  
Uri García-Vázquez ◽  
Maristella D’Addario ◽  
Armando Sunny

Land-use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position and climate, however, is one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the environmental niche (a part of it; considering climatic, topographic and land use variables) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modelling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again only with the most important variables and projected these models to the future (year 2050) considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45) and the land use and vegetation variables for year 2050, generated with Land Change Modeler based on the land use change occurred between years 2002 and 2011. We also calculated niche overlap between species in environmental space for the present and the future. Percentage of arid vegetation was a negative important variable for all the species and minimum temperature of the coldest month was selected as an important variable in four of the five species. Distance to Abies forest had a high percentage of contribution for T. scalaris and T. scaliger distribution. We found that all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their distribution ranges in the TMVB in the future, however, for the whole country, the distribution of T. melanogaster seems to increase in the future. T. scalaris is the species that will suffer the biggest reduction in its distribution; the fact that this species is limited by high temperatures and that cannot shift its distribution upward, as it is already distributed in the highest elevations, can be the cause of this dramatic decline. We found a reduction in niche overlap between species in the future, which means a reduction in the range of suitable combination of variables for the species.

Author(s):  
Andrea González Fernández ◽  
Javier Manjarrez ◽  
Uri García-Vázquez ◽  
Maristella D’Addario ◽  
Armando Sunny

Land-use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position and climate, however, is one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the environmental niche (a part of it; considering climatic, topographic and land use variables) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modelling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again only with the most important variables and projected these models to the future (year 2050) considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45) and the land use and vegetation variables for year 2050, generated with Land Change Modeler based on the land use change occurred between years 2002 and 2011. We also calculated niche overlap between species in environmental space for the present and the future. Percentage of arid vegetation was a negative important variable for all the species and minimum temperature of the coldest month was selected as an important variable in four of the five species. Distance to Abies forest had a high percentage of contribution for T. scalaris and T. scaliger distribution. We found that all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their distribution ranges in the TMVB in the future, however, for the whole country, the distribution of T. melanogaster seems to increase in the future. T. scalaris is the species that will suffer the biggest reduction in its distribution; the fact that this species is limited by high temperatures and that cannot shift its distribution upward, as it is already distributed in the highest elevations, can be the cause of this dramatic decline. We found a reduction in niche overlap between species in the future, which means a reduction in the range of suitable combination of variables for the species.


PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e4618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea González-Fernández ◽  
Javier Manjarrez ◽  
Uri García-Vázquez ◽  
Maristella D’Addario ◽  
Armando Sunny

Land use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the important environmental variables (considering climate, topography, and land use) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modeling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again using only the most important variables and projected these models to the future considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45), and land use and vegetation variables for the year 2050 (generated according to land use changes that occurred between years 2002 and 2011). Arid vegetation had an important negative effect on habitat suitability for all species, and minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for four of the five species. Thamnophis cyrtopsis was the species with the lowest tolerance to minimum temperatures. The maximum temperature of the warmest month was important for T. scalaris and T. cyrtopsis. Low percentages of agriculture were positive for T. eques and T. melanogaster but, at higher values, agriculture had a negative effect on habitat suitability for both species. Elevation was the most important variable to explain T. eques and T. melanogaster potential distribution while distance to Abies forests was the most important variable for T. scalaris and T. scaliger. All species had a high proportion of their potential distribution in the TMVB. However, according to our models, all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their potential distribution in this region. T. scalaris will suffer the biggest reduction because this species is limited by high temperatures and will not be able to shift its distribution upward, as it is already present in the highest elevations of the TMVB.


2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armando Sunny ◽  
Andrea González-Fernández ◽  
Maristella D’Addario

Barisia imbricata imbricata is an endemic anguid lizard living in the highlands of central Mexico, mainly in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, but its current distribution is not well defined. For this reason, it is critical to make a systematic study in order to determine the potential distribution of this subspecies. We considered 13 environmental and anthropogenic variables recognized to be important to determine the presence of B. i. imbricata; we also used eight presence-only modeling methods and selected three to generate an ensemble model. The Maxent algorithm was used to obtain the most important variables. The variables with highest contribution to the model were: maximum temperature of the warmest month, altitude, Abies forest and Pinus forest. From the estimated potential distribution (9614.1 km2), 8053.4 km2 (83.8%) are located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, 3821.4 km2 (39.7%) are located in natural protected areas and 2418.2 km2 (25.2%) are in crop fields. The whole potential distribution is highly fragmented and characterized by the presence of human activities, which could have long-term consequences, increasing extinction risk.


2006 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 537-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gomez-Tuena ◽  
C. H. Langmuir ◽  
S. L. Goldstein ◽  
S. M. Straub ◽  
F. Ortega-Gutierrez

2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (6) ◽  
pp. 2648-2669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel M. Michalk ◽  
Harald N. Böhnel ◽  
Norbert R. Nowaczyk ◽  
Gerardo J. Aguírre-Diaz ◽  
Margarita López-Martínez ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
pp. SP520-2021-144
Author(s):  
Marie-Noëlle Guilbaud ◽  
Corentin Chédeville ◽  
Ángel Nahir Molina-Guadarrama ◽  
Julio Cesar Pineda-Serrano ◽  
Claus Siebe

AbstractThe eruption of the ∼10 km3 rhyolitic Las Derrumbadas twin domes about 2000 yrs ago has generated a wide range of volcano-sedimentary deposits in the Serdán-Oriental lacustrine basin, Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Some of these deposits have been quarried, creating excellent exposures. In this paper we describe the domes and related products and interpret their mode of formation, reconstructing the main phases of the eruption as well as syn-and-post eruptive erosional processes. After an initial phreatomagmatic phase that built a tuff ring, the domes grew as an upheaved plug lifting a thick sedimentary pile from the basin floor. During uplift, the domes collapsed repeatedly to form a first-generation of hetero-lithologic hummocky debris avalanche deposits. Subsequent dome growth produced a thick talus and pyroclastic density currents. Later, the hydrothermally-altered over-steepened dome peaks fell to generate 2nd generation, mono-lithologic avalanches. Subsequently, small domes grew in the collapse scars. From the end of the main eruptive episode onwards, heavy rains remobilized parts of the dome carapaces and talus, depositing lahar aprons. Las Derrumbadas domes are still an important source of sediments in the basin, and ongoing mass-wasting processes are associated with hazards that should be assessed, given their potential impact on nearby populations.Supplementary material at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5752296


1993 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-559
Author(s):  
Hugo Delgado Granados

La tasa de convergencia calculada indica que la tectónica del occidente de México ha sido tensional durante los últimos 3 Ma. Este estilo de deformación se ve reflejado en la formación de estructuras rift en la parte occidental de la Faja Volcánica Trans-Mexicana [FVTM]. Los valores obtenidos para la tasa de convergencia predicen que, a través del tiempo, se verifica una tectónica menos tensional (con tendencia a la neutralidad) en la parte sureste de la zona de interacción de las placas de Rivera Y Norteamérica, mientras que en la parte noroccidental se vuelve más tensional. Por otra parte, un análisis cualitativo de las tasas de esparcimiento muestra que éstas fueron más rápidas antes de los 6.5 Ma de lo que fueron posteriormente. Después de analizar diferentes parámetros cinemáticos, se concluyó que la tasa de esparcimiento de la cresta del Pacífico Oriental en su sector Pacífico-Rivera, influye fuertemente sobre la tasa de convergencia. De esta manera se puede establecer una correlación positiva entre la evolución de la tasa de esparcimiento de la cresta Pacífico-Rivera y la geología continental. Esta correlación muestra que tasas de esparcimiento relativamente rápidas coinciden con la presencia de volcanismo monogenético calci-alcalino en la parte occidental de la FVTM cuando menos desde hace 10 Ma y que este tipo de volcanismo continúa hasta nuestros días. Sin embargo, cuando la tasa de esparcimiento se ha hecho más lenta (y por tanto la tasa de convergencia se ha hecho menor) durante el periodo comprendido entre 6.5 Ma y 3.5 Ma, se ha verificado en la región una tectónica extensional ampliamente distribuida, volcanismo explosivo y sedimentación lacustre en los sistemas rift de Colima, Tepic-Zacoalco y de Chapala; particularmente entre los 4.6 Ma y 3.9 Ma ha coincidido con volcanismo alcalino en los rifts fr Colima y Tepic-Zacoalco. Un leve incremento en la tasa de esparcimiento después de los 3.5 Ma coinciden con el decremento de actividad volcánica (principalmente alcalina). Durante el periodo entre 1.6 Ma y 0.7 Ma, la tasa de esparcimiento disminuyó de nuevo coincidiendo con un fallamiento normal continuo en las tres estructuras rift mencionadas y en parte, con otra etapa de volcanismo alcalino (entre 1.4 Ma y 0.2 Ma) en los rift de Colima y Tepic-Zacoalco. Después de los 0.7 Ma, la tasa de esparcimiento se ha incrementado levemente. Por otra parte, se observa una relación genética entre el contenido de elementos compatibles en rocas volcánicas de la región con la tasa de convergencia, lo cual implica que tasas de subducción mayores aportan una mayor cantidad de sedimentos acrecionados a la cuña del manto. Esto explica las diferencias geoquímicas entre las rocas volcánicas a lo largo del frente volcánico de la parte occidental de la FVTM.


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