Monetary Policy and External Shocks in a Semidollarized Economy

Author(s):  
Oscar Dancourt
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 103-110
Author(s):  
Ilyasova Gulmira Garifollaevna ◽  
Bekmukhametova Assemgul Bauirzhanovna

Purpose: Currently due to Kazakhstan's high vulnerability to external shocks, Kazakhstan needs new growth factors to accelerate and provide more inclusive growth. The National Bank of Kazakhstan, as the central bank, is responsible for the development and implementation of state monetary and credit policy within the framework of powers provided by current legislation. Objectives of monetary policy are primarily carried out to achieve this goal. Restoration of trust to actions of economic authorities is possible only if a balanced and responsible policy, supported by concrete actions and results, is implemented. Methodology: This study provides a literature review of domestic and foreign authors, who conducted the study of monetary policy of Central Banks of countries in various aspects of international experience.  The study gives an analytical overview of the current monetary policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Main Findings: The study discusses the importance of Kazakhstan’s monetary-credit regulation as only by means of effective monetary policy state can mitigate economic crises, restrain inflation growth and stimulate investments in various sectors of country's economy. The studies are systematized theoretical and methodological research aspects of the monetary policy of Kazakhstan of which the conclusions and recommendations proposed to improve the economy of our country. Implications/Applications:  This suggests that we should work in the near future, look for drivers of growth, so as to ensure not just an anti-crisis manual management of the economy, but to enter the rails of sustainable development.


Author(s):  
Hongyi Chen ◽  
Andrew Tsang

This chapter uses the factor-augmented vector autoregression framework to study the impact on the Hong Kong economy of the diverging monetary policies by the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as the slowdown of the Mainland economy. The empirical results show that shocks in US monetary policy rate mainly affect interest rate-sensitive sectors in Hong Kong and that monetary easing from the ECB and the BoJ somewhat offsets the impact of tightening of the Fed. Real variables such as real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are more sensitive to the economic slowdown in Mainland China. However, Hong Kong’s financial stability, particularly with regard to loan quality, banks’ capital and liquidity, is well maintained by macroprudential policies, suggesting that Hong Kong’s financial system is resilient to external shocks.


2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jui-Chuan Della Chang ◽  
Chen-Jui Huang ◽  
I-Che Chien

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Aulia Yulianti Wulandari ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani ◽  
Lukytawati Anggraeni

Understanding the impact of external shocks on the stock market return and volatility is crucial for market participants as volatility is synonymous with risk. This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the spillover effects of the change of monetary policies from inside country and foreign origins on Indonesia stock market in the period of the time from November 2, 2012 to May 15, 2017. Used symmetric (IGARCH) and asymmetric (EGARCH and APARCH) GARCH model analysis to evaluate the impact of surprise and anticipated changes of monetary policies from inside country and foreign policies (from another ASEAN countries and leading economies, in this paper are United States, Europe, and United Kingdom). Surprise change of monetary policy is proxied by one day change in 3 months interbank offered rate, while anticipated change of monetary policy is proxied by one day change in target interest rate or policy rate. The result shows that information of the monetary policy news and Indonesia stock return is asymmetric. Indonesia stock market is only affected by foreign monetary policies. Keywords: ASEAN stock market, GARCH, Monetary policy JEL classification: C01, C50, E50


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Aulia Yulianti Wulandari ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani ◽  
Lukytawati Anggraeni

Understanding the impact of external shocks on the stock market return and volatility is crucial for market participants as volatility is synonymous with risk. This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the spillover effects of the change of monetary policies from inside country and foreign origins on Indonesia stock market in the period of the time from November 2, 2012 to May 15, 2017. Used symmetric (IGARCH) and asymmetric (EGARCH and APARCH) GARCH model analysis to evaluate the impact of surprise and anticipated changes of monetary policies from inside country and foreign policies (from another ASEAN countries and leading economies, in this paper are United States, Europe, and United Kingdom). Surprise change of monetary policy is proxied by one day change in 3 months interbank offered rate, while anticipated change of monetary policy is proxied by one day change in target interest rate or policy rate. The result shows that information of the monetary policy news and Indonesia stock return is asymmetric. Indonesia stock market is only affected by foreign monetary policies. Keywords: ASEAN stock market, GARCH, Monetary policy JEL classification: C01, C50, E50


Author(s):  
Patterson C. Ekeocha ◽  
Elias A. Udeaja

This paper examines spillover effects of U.S monetary policy on macroeconomic fundamentals in Nigeria from January 1985 to December 2018. The study period is partitioned to account for conventional monetary policy (CMP) period, January 1985 to August 2007 and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) period, September 2007 to December 2018. Guided by relevant pre-tests, we find BEKK-VARMA-CCCMGARCH as the most appropriate model. The study finds significant spillover effects of U.S CMP and UMP on interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in Nigeria. We, however, observe that while CMP may be a significant accelerator of shocks persistence on interest rates and exchange rates, the extent to which the UMP accelerate shocks in inflation rate tends to vary for different measures of quantitative easing. Thus, in addition to past own shocks and past own conditional variance of these macro fundamentals, understanding their dynamics cannot be in isolation of their vulnerability to external shocks and volatility due to spillover effects of monetary actions in other economies. In formulating monetary policy, it is therefore, imperative for the Central Bank of Nigeria to monitor the monetary policy process of the US to hedge against shocks spillovers.


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