Day-ahead Scheduling Method for Electricity Markets Using Neural Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Fumiya WATANABE ◽  
Takahiro KAWAGUCHI ◽  
Takayuki ISHIZAKI ◽  
Hideaki TAKENAKA ◽  
Takashi Y. NAKAJIMA ◽  
...  
2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (04) ◽  
pp. 5077-5084
Author(s):  
Tengfei Ma ◽  
Patrick Ferber ◽  
Siyu Huo ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Michael Katz

Automated planning is one of the foundational areas of AI. Since no single planner can work well for all tasks and domains, portfolio-based techniques have become increasingly popular in recent years. In particular, deep learning emerges as a promising methodology for online planner selection. Owing to the recent development of structural graph representations of planning tasks, we propose a graph neural network (GNN) approach to selecting candidate planners. GNNs are advantageous over a straightforward alternative, the convolutional neural networks, in that they are invariant to node permutations and that they incorporate node labels for better inference.Additionally, for cost-optimal planning, we propose a two-stage adaptive scheduling method to further improve the likelihood that a given task is solved in time. The scheduler may switch at halftime to a different planner, conditioned on the observed performance of the first one. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method against strong baselines, both deep learning and non-deep learning based.The code is available at https://github.com/matenure/GNN_planner.


Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 4557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilkay Oksuz ◽  
Umut Ugurlu

The intraday electricity markets are continuous trade platforms for each hour of the day and have specific characteristics. These markets have shown an increasing number of transactions due to the requirement of close to delivery electricity trade. Recently, intraday electricity price market research has seen a rapid increase in a number of works for price prediction. However, most of these works focus on the features and descriptive statistics of the intraday electricity markets and overlook the comparison of different available models. In this paper, we compare a variety of methods including neural networks to predict intraday electricity market prices in Turkish intraday market. The recurrent neural networks methods outperform the classical methods. Furthermore, gated recurrent unit network architecture achieves the best results with a mean absolute error of 0.978 and a root mean square error of 1.302. Moreover, our results indicate that day-ahead market price of the corresponding hour is a key feature for intraday price forecasting and estimating spread values with day-ahead prices proves to be a more efficient method for prediction.


Author(s):  
Umut Ugurlu ◽  
Ilkay Oksuz ◽  
Oktay Tas

Accurate electricity price forecasting has become a substantial requirement since the liberalization of the electricity markets. Due to the challenging nature of the electricity prices, which includes high volatility, sharp price spikes and seasonality, various types of electricity price forecasting models still compete and can not outperform each other consistently. Neural Networks have been successfully used in machine learning problems and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been proposed to address time-dependent learning problems. In particular, Long Short Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) are tailor-made for time series price estimation. In this paper, we propose to use Gated Recurrent Units as a new technique for electricity price forecasting. We have trained a variety of algorithms with rolling 3-year window and compared the results with the RNNs. In our experiments, 3-layered GRUs outperformed all other neural network structures and state of the art statistical techniques in a statistically significant manner in the Turkish day-ahead market.


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