On a disclosure probability statement for the 5 safes framework

With increasing demand from the research community for more frequent and unrestricted access to data, national statistical offices (NSOs) are adopting the 5 safes framework to manage the disclosure risk for releasing such data. In this paper, under some mild conditions, we show that the probability of disclosure, given the controls in the 5 safes, is not greater than the product of the smallest conditional disclosure probability amongst the 5 controls and the Risk Ratios of the remaining four safe controls. By computing the disclosure probabilities of all possible configurations of the controls in each of the 5 dimensions of the framework, one can select the set which has the least control on data, but which also meet the confidentiality and privacy requirements of the NSO. Where the required assumption of unconditional independence of the safes cannot be met, the paper proposes a merger of some of the controls to overcome the violation.

Pengembangan Teknik Deteksi Fusarium Patogen Pada Umbi Benih Bawang Merah (Allium ascalonicum) di Laboratorium

<p>Penyakit layu fusarium yang disebabkan oleh Fusarium oxysporum merupakan salah satu penyakit penting pada bawang merah (Allium ascalonicum). Sebagian besar petani menggunakan umbi sebagai benih dan diketahui bahwa beberapa patogen dapat terbawa oleh benih seperti Fusarium oxysporum. Oleh karena itu diperlukan pengujian kesehatan benih untuk mencegah penyebaran penyakit tersebut. Salah satu metode sederhana dan efektif untuk digunakan di laboratorium adalah blotter test. Namun beberapa strain F. oxysporum terbukti tidak bersifat patogenik, serta tidak dapat dibedakan secara morfologi dengan strain yang bersifat patogenik. Penelitian ini bertujuan menentukan parameter uji dan jumlah sampel minimal dalam deteksi Fusarium oxysporum pada umbi bawang merah dengan metode blotter test. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa parameter nekrosis pada basal plate umbi bawang merah mempunyai koefisien korelasi (r) sebesar 0,77 terhadap tingkat infeksi pada growing on test (GOT) dan lebih besar dari tingkat infeksi fusarium (0,34) pada blotter test. Dari 195 isolat Fusarium spp. yang diuji, diketahui bahwa sebagian besar isolat bersifat nonpatogenik. Penentuan jumlah minimal umbi dengan plot kurva rerata jumlah nekrosis pada basal plate dan standar deviasi, menunjukkan jumlah sampel umbi minimal untuk blotter test adalah 150 umbi. Perhitungan jumlah sampel dengan formal probability statement yang menunjukkan jumlah umbi minimal untuk blotter test adalah 138 umbi.</p>

Measurement of the conjunction error in social judgment: Answer choice and answer justification

People often judge the probability of two events occurring together to be more probable than the less probable of each of these events occurring separately, thereby demonstrating the conjunction error. "Correct" responses are those in which participants rank a single-element statement of low probability as more probable than a conjunction consisting of a low-probability statement and an additional statement. We demonstrated in two studies that task structure was related to the number of people who chose the single-element statement as more probable. However, relatively few participants provided a rationale for their answer choice based on the conjunction rule. In a third study, responses on the answer choice and answer justification measures converged. In addition to serving as a sensitive dependent measure, participants' justifications when answering conjunction problems may provide insight into their reasoning.

THE GLANCE THAT DECEIVES

It is widely recognized that t-tests, chi square tests and other statistical tests provide a basis for probability statements only when the hypothesis is fully developed before the data are examined in any way. If even the briefest glance at a study's results moves the investigator to consider a hypothesis not formulated before the study was started, that glance destroys the probability value of the evidence at hand... When either the [statistical] test itself or the reporting of the test is motivated by the data, a probability statement such as "P less than 0.05" is deceptive.