Dynamic evolution and scenario simulation of habitat quality under the impact of land-use change in the Huaihe River Economic Belt, China

Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the biodiversity provided by ecosystem. Estimating and scenario-simulating the dynamic evolution and future development trends of habitat quality under the influence of land-use change is significant in regional biodiversity conservation, formulating land-use planning, and maintaining the ecological environmental sustainability. In this article, we included the Huaihe River Economic Belt as the area of study because of its vital location in China and applied the CA–Markov and InVEST models to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of habitat quality and to simulate the future development trends of habitat quality under three different land-use scenarios: fast urban growth scenario, farmland conservation-oriented scenario, and ecological conservation-oriented scenario. The results showed that the land-use change in the Huaihe River Economic Belt was mostly represented by the continuous increase of the built-up area, whereas other land types all declined in area from 1995 to 2015. The land-use changes under these three abovementioned alternative future scenarios with different development orientations were considerably different. The built-up area has been shown to expand rapidly to occupy other land types on a large scale under the fast urban growth scenario. Urban land increased slightly and a large area of rural residential land would be converted into farmland under the farmland conservation-oriented scenario. The built-up area and farmland might decrease while woodland, grassland and water would increase in extent of areas under the ecological conservation-oriented scenario. Habitat quality has been shown to be generally poor, continuing to decline from 1995 to 2015, while its spatial distribution was higher in the southwest and northeast areas and lower in the central regions. The future habitat quality would display a downward trend under the fast urban growth and farmland conservation-oriented scenarios with a further deterioration of the ecological environment, while the ecological conservation-oriented scenario predicted the converse trend that the ecological environment would be improved productively. This study may be useful for understanding the impact of land-use dynamics on biodiversity. The research results can provide a scientific basis for the decision-makers to formulate biodiversity conservation and land management policies.

Study of Multiple Land Use Planning Based on the Coordinated Development of Wetland Farmland: A Case Study of Fuyuan City, China

Fuyuan City is located in the black soil region of northeast China. Its fertile soil and flat terrain provide a reliable guarantee for the scale, intensification, and standardization of farmland. A large amount of land resources that can be used for the national food base has been developed, and the contradiction between the need for wetland protection and arable land development has become increasingly prominent. Based on the remote sensing data of 2000, 2005, and 2010, this paper simulates the future land use/land cover changes structure in Fuyuan City based on the Markov Chain model. According to the characteristics of Fuyuan City’s structure, economy, society, and natural environment, within the overall planning of the city, we explore three scenarios: business-as-usual scenarios, farmland conservation scenarios, and wetland conservation scenarios. The results revealed the following: (1) Under the business-as-usual scenario, the rapid development of Fuyuan City showed the characteristics of the continued expansion of urban area and the reduction of farmland and wetland area in 2020 compared with 2010. (2) Under farmland conservation scenarios, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted. (3) Under wetland conservation scenarios, wetland increased dramatically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland, and unused land. According to the result, optimized countermeasures are proposed to balance the coordinated development of farmland and wetlands, to deepen the multiperiod planning of land use in Fuyuan City and to provide data support and a basis for decision-making.