Simplified Approach to Detect Satellite Maneuvers Using TLE Data and Simplified Perturbation Model Utilizing Orbital Element Variation

In this study, an algorithm to identify the maneuvers of a satellite is developed by comparing the Keplerian elements acquired from the two-line elements (TLEs) and Keplerian elements propagated from simplified perturbation models. TLEs contain a specific set of orbital elements, whereas the simplified perturbation models are used to propagate the state vectors at a given time. By comparing the corresponding Keplerian elements derived from both methods, a satellite’s maneuver is identified. This article provides an outline of the working methodology and efficacy of the method. The function of this approach is evaluated in two case studies, i.e., TOPEX/Poseidon and Envisat, whose maneuver histories are available. The same method is implemented to identify the station-keeping maneuvers for TDRS-3, whose maneuver history is not available. Results derived from the analysis indicate that maneuvers with a magnitude of even as low as cm/s are detected when the detection parameters are calibrated properly.

Ancient and primordial collisional families as the main sources of X-type asteroids of the inner main belt

Aims. The near-Earth asteroid population suggests the existence of an inner main belt source of asteroids that belongs to the spectroscopic X complex and has moderate albedos. The identification of such a source has been lacking so far. We argue that the most probable source is one or more collisional asteroid families that have escaped discovery up to now. Methods. We apply a novel method to search for asteroid families in the inner main-belt population of asteroids belonging to the X complex with moderate albedo. Instead of searching for asteroid clusters in orbital element space, which could be severely dispersed when older than some billions of years, our method looks for correlations between the orbital semimajor axis and the inverse size of asteroids. This correlation is the signature of members of collisional families that have drifted from a common centre under the effect of the Yarkovsky thermal effect. Results. We identify two previously unknown families in the inner main belt among the moderate-albedo X-complex asteroids. One of them, whose lowest numbered asteroid is (161) Athor, is ~3 Gyr old, whereas the second one, whose lowest numbered object is (689) Zita, could be as old as the solar system. Members of this latter family have orbital eccentricities and inclinations that spread them over the entire inner main belt, which is an indication that this family could be primordial, that is, it formed before the giant planet orbital instability. Conclusions. The vast majority of moderate-albedo X-complex asteroids of the inner main belt are genetically related, as they can be included into a few asteroid families. Only nine X-complex asteroids with moderate albedo of the inner main belt cannot be included in asteroid families. We suggest that these bodies formed by direct accretion of the solids in the protoplanetary disc, and are thus surviving planetesimals.

Monitoring near-Earth-object discoveries for imminent impactors

Aims. We present an automated system called NEORANGER that regularly computes asteroid-Earth impact probabilities for objects on the Minor Planet Center’s (MPC) Near-Earth-Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) and sends out alerts of imminent impactors to registered users. In addition to potential Earth-impacting objects, NEORANGER also monitors for other types of interesting objects such as Earth’s natural temporarily-captured satellites. Methods. The system monitors the NEOCP for objects with new data and solves, for each object, the orbital inverse problem, which results in a sample of orbits that describes the, typically highly-nonlinear, orbital-element probability density function (PDF). The PDF is propagated forward in time for seven days and the impact probability is computed as the weighted fraction of the sample orbits that impact the Earth. Results. The system correctly predicts the then-imminent impacts of 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA based on the first data sets available. Using the same code and configuration we find that the impact probabilities for objects typically on the NEOCP, based on eight weeks of continuous operations, are always less than one in ten million, whereas simulated and real Earth-impacting asteroids always have an impact probability greater than 10% based on the first two tracklets available.

The Influence of Orbital Element Error on Satellite Coverage Calculation

This paper studies the influence of orbital element error on coverage calculation of a satellite. In order to present the influence, an analysis method based on the position uncertainty of the satellite shown by an error ellipsoid is proposed. In this error ellipsoid, positions surrounding the center of the error ellipsoid mean different positioning possibilities which present three-dimensional normal distribution. The possible subastral points of the satellite are obtained by sampling enough points on the surface of the error ellipsoid and projecting them on Earth. Then, analysis cases are implemented based on these projected subastral points. Finally, a comparison report of coverage calculation between considering and not considering the error of orbital elements is given in the case results.