Identification of subgroups of terror attacks with shared characteristics for the purpose of preventing mass-casualty attacks: a data-mining approach

Security and intelligence agencies around the world invest considerable resources in preventing terrorist attacks, as these may cause strategic damage, national demoralization, infringement of sovereignty, and government instability. Recently, data-mining techniques have evolved to allow identification of patterns and associations in criminal data that were not apparent using traditional analysis. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how to use interpretable classification algorithms to identify subgroups (“patterns”) of terrorist incidents that share common characteristics and that result in mass fatalities. This approach can produce insights far beyond those of conventional macro-level studies that use hypothesis-testing and regression models. In addition to this methodological contribution, from a practical perspective, exploring the characteristics identified in the “patterns” can lead to prevention strategies, such as alteration of the physical or systemic environment. This is in line with situational crime prevention (SCP) theory. We apply our methodology to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). We present three examples in which terror attacks that are described by a particular pattern (set of characteristics) resulted in a high probability of mass casualties, while attacks that differ in just one of these characteristics (i.e., month of attack, geographical area targeted, or type of attack) resulted in far fewer casualties. We propose exploration of the differentiating characteristic as a means of reducing the probability of mass-fatality terrorist incidents.

Casualty and Scene Medical Management

Chapter 5 covers the declaration of a major incident and practice of the initial situation report from the scene. A summary is given of the systematic approach and organization of the on-scene medical response including key medical roles and responsibilities at scene, triage, decontamination, personal protective equipment, dealing with the dead and human remains, evacuation, survivor reception, mass fatalities and national emergency mortuary arrangements, management of contaminated fatalities, and the role of the police senior investigation manager.

An Introduction to Major Incident Management

Chapter 1 covers information on what a major incident is, definitions and classifications including chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN), special arrangements, historical and recent major incidents, mass fatalities, the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, nomenclature, and the Joint Emergency Services Inter-operability Programme (JESIP). The phases and objectives of a response to a major incident are described. This chapter also outlines the generic structured approach including command and control, safety (including zones and cordons), communication, assessment, triage and categorization systems, casualty treatment, roles and responsibilities, and casualty transportation.

Interpretation of Burned Remains: Lessons from Modern Forensic Cases

Experimentation regarding thermal effects on human bone provides valuable information that is needed to interpret ancient remains as well as modern forensic cases. Applications of this information in the forensic arena often clarify key issues in case interpretation. The forensic experience also contributes to the knowledge available on thermal effects on bone, by using information gleaned from the cases. Thus, forensic casework involves a two-way academic street of information flow. General knowledge of thermal effects is needed to interpret particular problems presented by the cases. Resolution of cases, with disclosure of the circumstances leading to the thermal effects, yields valuable information that enhances methodology and diagnoses of future applications. Problems presented by forensic casework can also stimulate new research and subsequently enhance methodology. Although forensic analysis has traditionally been applied to individual cases brought to the laboratory, increasingly forensic anthropologists are involved in recovery and analysis issues of complex cases, including those involving mass fatalities (Sledzik and Rodriguez 2002; Sledzik 2009). These can include aeroplane crashes, military incidents, civil strife, terrorist activities, natural disasters, and other events, which produce fatalities with associated thermal alterations. Forensic anthropologists provide a vital service in the recovery and interpretation of evidence in the aftermath of such events. These unique experiences yield valuable information on the thermal effects on human remains. One lesson learned from such experience is that advanced thermal conditions can lead to extensive fragmentation of bones and teeth (McKinley 1989; Ubelaker 2009). A classic well-known product of thermal exposure on a human body is the pugilistic pose involving contraction of the muscles of the arms producing those limbs positioned as if in the boxer’s position (Saukko and Knight 2004). This position, involving the legs as well as the arms, is commonly encountered when most soft tissue is preserved and the heat is of low duration and intensity. In such cases, the bones may escape alteration via protection by the soft tissue. If the heat is prolonged and extensive, the soft tissue will probably be burned away, exposing the underlying bone. This process may produce varying bone exposure, depending on the position of the individual and other factors (Fairgrieve 2008).