Link Prediction Between Structured Geopolitical Events: Models and Experiments

Often thought of as higher-order entities, events have recently become important subjects of research in the computational sciences, including within complex systems and natural language processing (NLP). One such application is event link prediction. Given an input event, event link prediction is the problem of retrieving a relevant set of events, similar to the problem of retrieving relevant documents on the Web in response to keyword queries. Since geopolitical events have complex semantics, it is an open question as to how to best model and represent events within the framework of event link prediction. In this paper, we formalize the problem and discuss how established representation learning algorithms from the machine learning community could potentially be applied to it. We then conduct a detailed empirical study on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) using a set of metrics inspired by the information retrieval community. Our results show that, while there is considerable signal in both network-theoretic and text-centric models of the problem, classic text-only models such as bag-of-words prove surprisingly difficult to outperform. Our results establish both a baseline for event link prediction on GTD, and currently outstanding challenges for the research community to tackle in this space.

Terrorism and emergency constitutions in the Muslim world

Previous research has indicated that constitutionalized emergency provisions effectively constrain the behaviour of democratic governments subsequent to terrorist attacks. In this article, we ask if this is also true for autocratic governments. Are non-democratic governments equally subject to constitutionalized constraints regarding their reactions to emergencies and particularly to terrorist attacks? To answer the question, we analyse the behaviour of a specific group of predominantly autocratic governments that are particularly subject to frequent terrorist incidents, namely the states that are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Employing data on terrorist activity from the Global Terrorism Database and constitutional data from the Index of Emergency Powers, we estimate the association between constitutionalized constraints and terrorist attacks in a dataset covering 48 member-states of the organization observed annually between 1970 and 2014. As hypothesized, we find that emergency constitutions that politically make it relatively cheap for governments to declare a state of emergency are more likely to be invoked. In addition, we find that governments are more likely to increase repression after terrorist events when the constitution allocates more discretionary power to the government in emergencies. Our evidence thus suggests that emergency constitutions also impact on the behaviour of largely autocratic governments.

A comparison of global suicide terrorism by region before and after 9/11 terrorist attacks

Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on suicide terrorism in different regions of the world and changes in the trends in suicide terrorism according to regions before and after 9/11. Design/methodology/approach Using the data obtained from the Global Terrorism Database from 1981 to 2019, the descriptive statistics were computed first and then, independent samples t-tests were run to compare the monthly mean percentage of suicide-terrorism incidents that occurred in each region between the pre-9/11 and the post-9/11 periods. Finally, to statistically assess the effect of the 9/11 attacks and changes in the trends for the dependent variables over time, monthly interrupted time-series analyzes were conducted. Findings The results of monthly interrupted time series analyzes showed that after the 9/11 attacks, the trends for suicide-terrorism rates decreased significantly in three regions including South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and Europe, while the trend for suicide-terrorism rates increased significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, no statistically significant changes in the trends in suicide-terrorism rates occurred in three regions including North America, East Asia and Central Asia and Southeast Asia before 9/11, during November 2001 or after 9/11. Originality/value This study indicates the critical importance of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in suicide terrorism and its impact on these events in different regions of the world. The research also provides some recommendations concerning the effectiveness of defensive and offensive counterterrorism policies against suicide terrorism.

50 Years of Mass-Fatality Terrorist Attacks: A Retrospective Study of Target Demographics, Modalities, and Injury Patterns to Better Inform Future Counter-Terrorism Medicine Preparedness and Response

Background: Terrorism-related deaths have fallen year after year since peaking in 2014, and whilst the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted terrorist organizations capacity to conduct attacks and limited their potential targets, counter-terrorism experts believe this is a short-term phenomenon with serious concerns of an escalation of violence and events in the near future. This study aims to provide an epidemiological analysis of all terrorism-related mass-fatality events (>100 fatalities) sustained between 1970-2019, including historical attack strategies, modalities used, and target selection, to better inform health care responders on the injury types they are likely to encounter. Methods: The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was searched for all attacks between the years 1970-2019. Attacks met inclusion criteria if they fulfilled the three terrorism-related criteria as set by the GTD codebook. Ambiguous events were excluded. State-sponsored terrorist events do not meet the codebook’s definition, and as such, are excluded from the study. Data analysis and subsequent discussions were focused on events causing 100+ fatal injuries (FI). Results: In total, 168,003 events were recorded between the years 1970-2019. Of these, 85,225 (50.73%) events recorded no FI; 67,356 (40.10%) events recorded 1-10 FI; 5,791 (3.45%) events recorded 11-50 FI; 405 (0.24%) events recorded 51-100 FI; 149 (0.09%) events recorded over 100 FI; and 9,077 (5.40%) events recorded unknown number of FI. Also, 96,905 events recorded no non-fatal injuries (NFI); 47,425 events recorded 1-10 NFI; 8,313 events recorded 11-50 NFI; 867 events recorded 51-100 NFI; 360 events recorded over 100 NFI; and 14,130 events recorded unknown number of NFI. Private citizens and property were the primary targets in 67 of the 149 high-FI events (100+ FI). Of the 149 events recording 100+ FI, 46 (30.87%) were attributed to bombings/explosions as the primary attack modality, 43 (28.86%) were armed assaults, 23 (15.44%) hostage incidents, two (1.34%) were facility/infrastructure attacks (incendiary), one (0.67%) was an unarmed assault, seven (4.70%) had unknown modalities, and 27 (18.12%) were mixed modality attacks. Conclusions: The most common attack modality causing 100+ FI was the use of bombs and explosions (30.87%), followed by armed assaults (28.86%). Private citizens and properties (44.97%) were most commonly targeted, followed by government (6.04%), businesses (5.37%), police (4.70%), and airports and aircrafts (4.70%). These data will be useful for the development of training programs in Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM), a rapidly emerging Disaster Medicine sub-specialty.

SUPREMACISMO BLANCO Y EXTREMA DERECHA: AMENAZAS PARA LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DE AMÉRICA Y MÉXICO

El supremacismo blanco y la extrema derecha estadounidense, de ma- nera paulatina aumenta su presencia política, número de adeptos y ac- ciones violentas que han desencadenado ataques terroristas con resul- tados fatales. Estos hechos de terror están dirigidos hacia personas que no pertenecen a lo que estos grupos supremacistas consideran gente blanca, y entre estos objetivos se encuentra la población de mexicanos que radican, visitan o trabajan en los Estados Unidos de América, así también ciudadanos de ese país y sus instituciones son víctimas de ataques racistas, de ahí que la finalidad del presente documento es el dilucidar las características más relevantes del supremacismo blanco así como sus condiciones actuales, estableciendo que estosgrupos violentos son una amenaza para el gobierno estadounidense y su orden democrático así como para México y sus ciudadanos. Este artículo utilizó textos académicos recientes y se apoyó en la Global Terrorism Database, desarrollado por la Universidad de Maryland, así como en datos estadísticos de la agencia estadounidense Federal Bureau Investigation.

Quantitative Analysis of Global Terrorist Attacks Based on the Global Terrorism Database

Terrorist attacks have become a serious source of risk affecting the security of the international community. Using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), in order to quantitatively study past terrorist attacks and their temporal and spatial evolution the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to classify the degree of damage from terrorist attacks. The various factors influencing terrorist attacks were extracted and represented in three dimensions. Subsequently, using MATLAB for analysis and processing, the grading standards for terrorist attacks were classified into five levels according to the degree of hazard. Based on this grading standard, the top ten terrorist attacks with the highest degree of hazard in the past two decades were listed. Because the characteristics and habits of a terrorist or group exhibit a certain consistency, the K-means cluster analysis method was used to classify terrorists according to region, type of attack, type of target and type of weapon used by the terrorists. Several attacks that might have been committed by the same terrorist organization or individual at different times and in different locations were classified into one category, and the top five categories were selected according to the degree of sabotage inflicted by the organization or individual. Finally, the spatiotemporal evolution of terrorist attacks in the past three years was analyzed, considering the terrorist attack targets and key areas of terrorist attacks. The Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa were predicted to be the regions that will be most seriously affected by future global terrorist events. The terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia are expected to become more severe, and the scope of terrorist attacks in Africa is expected to widen. Civilians are the targets most at risk for terrorist attacks, and the corresponding risk index is considerably higher than it is for other targets. The results of this research can help individuals and the government to enable a better understanding of terrorism, improve awareness to prevent terrorism and enhance emergency management and rescue, and provide a solid and reliable basis and reference for joint counterterrorism in various countries and regions.

Effect of regional terrorism events on Malaysian tourism demand

The study analyzes the impact of terrorism on Malaysia’s tourism demand. Panel data from the 25 top source countries, covering the period from 2000Q4 to 2017Q4 is obtained from the Global Terrorism Database, and the Malaysian Tourism Board (MyTourismData). For analysis, a panel Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) procedure is employed. The results indicate that an increase in terrorism activity in Malaysia depresses international arrivals to the country. Furthermore, spillover effects from terrorism activity in neighboring South East Asian countries are identified. Increased terrorism activity in Thailand is found to boost tourist arrivals in Malaysia from each of the four source continents (Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia) as well as overall. However, increased terrorism activity in Indonesia depresses arrivals from each of the four source continents as well as overall, possibly due to closer physical and cultural proximity. Increase in terrorism activity in Philippines generally creates a negative effect on Malaysia tourism arrivals except for fatalities which induces a positive effect from North America and Oceania. It is suggested Malaysia should coordinate counter terrorism strategies with Indonesia and Philippines to reduce negative spillover. Malaysia tourism providers should also emphasize differentiation of Malaysia tourism products from Indonesian and Philippine products. Future research should assess how terrorism attack patterns affect tourism demand across different nationalities.

A Decade of Terrorism in the United States and the Emergence of Counter-Terrorism Medicine

Background: The United States (US) is ranked 22nd on the Global Terrorism Index (2019), a scoring system of terrorist activities. While the global number of deaths from terrorism over the past five years is down, the number of countries affected by terrorism is growing and the health care repercussions remain significant. Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM) is rapidly emerging as a necessary sub-specialty, and this study aims to provide the epidemiological context over the past decade supporting this need by detailing the unique injury types responders are likely to encounter and setting the stage for the development of training programs utilizing these data. Methods: The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was searched for all attacks in the US from 2008-2018. Attacks met inclusion criteria if they fulfilled the three terrorism-related criteria as set by the GTD. Ambiguous events were excluded when there was uncertainty as to whether the incident met all of the criteria for inclusion in the GTD. The grey literature was reviewed, and each event was cross-matched with reputable international and national newspaper sources online to confirm or add details regarding weapon type used and, whenever available, details of victim and perpetrator fatalities and injuries. Results: In total, 304 events were recorded during the period of study. Of the 304 events, 117 (38.5%) used incendiary-only weapons, 80 (26.3%) used firearms as their sole weapon, 55 (18.1%) used explosives, bombs, or dynamite (E/B/D), 23 (7.6%) were melee-only, six (2.0%) used vehicles-only, four (1.3%) were chemicals-only, two (0.7%) used sabotage equipment, two (0.7%) were listed as “others,” and one (0.3%) used biological weapon. There was no recorded nuclear or radiological weapon use. In addition, 14 (4.6%) events used a mix of weapons. Conclusions: In the decade from 2008 through 2018, terrorist attacks on US soil used weapons with well-understood injury-causing modalities. A total of 217 fatal injuries (FI) and 660 non-fatal injuries (NFI) were sustained as a result of these events during that period. Incendiary weapons were the most commonly chosen methodology, followed by firearms and E/B/D attacks. Firearm events contributed to a disproportionality high fatality count while E/B/D events contributed to a disproportionally high NFI count.