Global policymakers and catastrophic risk

There is a rapidly developing literature on risks that threaten the whole of humanity, or a large part of it. Discussion is increasingly turning to how such risks can be governed. This paper arises from a study of those involved the governance of risks from emerging technologies, examining the perceptions of global catastrophic risk within the relevant global policymaking community. Those who took part were either civil servants working for the UK government, U.S. Congress, the United Nations, and the European Commission, or cognate members of civil society groups and the private sector. Analysis of interviews identified four major themes: Scepticism; Realism; Influence; and Governance outside of Government. These themes provide evidence for the value of conceptualising the governance of global catastrophic risk as a unified challenge. Furthermore, they highlight the range of agents involved in governance of emerging technology and give reason to value reforms carried out sub-nationally.

Above the debris

<p>At an accelerating rate, over half of the world’s population is living in urban centres. The catastrophic risk to environmental, cultural, and economic resources amidst these high concentrations of livelihoods upon the wake of a disaster has the potential to be devastating. A city’s urban form consisting of its open space networks and street structures are important spatial resources that provide affected communities with efficient evacuation routes, assembly areas, temporary market spaces, and room for temporary shelters in the aftermath of a disaster. Open public spaces are especially important during these scenarios as they provide large volumes of space that can be adapted to a variety of different functions. However, these spaces are seldom designed with resilience in mind. This thesis investigates how open spaces are able to contribute to the disaster resiliency of urban centres, ensuring that the needs of the present are in light of the needs of the future.</p>

Above the debris

<p>At an accelerating rate, over half of the world’s population is living in urban centres. The catastrophic risk to environmental, cultural, and economic resources amidst these high concentrations of livelihoods upon the wake of a disaster has the potential to be devastating. A city’s urban form consisting of its open space networks and street structures are important spatial resources that provide affected communities with efficient evacuation routes, assembly areas, temporary market spaces, and room for temporary shelters in the aftermath of a disaster. Open public spaces are especially important during these scenarios as they provide large volumes of space that can be adapted to a variety of different functions. However, these spaces are seldom designed with resilience in mind. This thesis investigates how open spaces are able to contribute to the disaster resiliency of urban centres, ensuring that the needs of the present are in light of the needs of the future.</p>

A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk

Injecting particles into atmosphere to reflect sunlight, stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), represents a potential technological solution to the threat of climate change. But could the cure be worse than the disease? Understanding low probability, yet plausible, high-impact cases is critical to prudent climate risk management and SAI deliberation. But analyses of such high impact outcomes are lacking in SAI research. This paper helps resolve this gap by investigating SAI's contributions to global catastrophic risk. We split SAI's contributions to catastrophic risk into four interrelated dimensions:1. Acting as a direct catastrophic risk through potentially unforeseen ecological blowback.2. Interacting with other globally catastrophic hazards like nuclear war.3. Exacerbating systemic risk (risks that cascade and amplify across different systems);4. Acting as a latent risk (risk that is dormant but can later be triggered).The potential for major unforeseen environmental consequences seems highly unlikely but is ultimately unknown. SAI plausibly interacts with other catastrophic calamities, most notably by potentially exacerbating the impacts of nuclear war or an extreme space weather event. SAI could contribute to systemic risk by introducing stressors into critical systems such as agriculture. SAI's systemic stressors, and risks of systemic cascades and synchronous failures, are highly understudied. SAI deployment more tightly couples different ecological, economic, and political systems. This creates a precarious condition of latent risk, the largest cause for concern. Thicker SAI masking extreme warming could create a planetary Sword of Damocles. That is, if SAI were removed but underlying greenhouse gas concentrations not reduced, there would be extreme warming in a very short timeframe. Sufficiently large global shocks could force SAI termination and trigger SAI's latent risk, compounding disasters and catastrophic risks. Across all these dimensions, the specific SAI deployment, and associated governance, is critical. A well-coordinated use of a small amount of SAI would incur negligible risks, but this is an optimistic scenario. Conversely, larger use of SAI used in an uncoordinated manner poses many potential dangers. We cannot equivocally determine whether SAI will be worse than warming. For now, a heavy reliance on SAI seems an imprudent policy response.

Synchronized Agricultural Credit and Diversification Adoption to Catastrophic Risk Manage for Wheat Production in Punjab, Pakistan

Catastrophic risks caused severe affects on agricultural production particularly in developing countries due to consecutive occurrence of unfavorable climate events. Farmers adopt risk management strategies to minimize marketing, production and financial risks in agriculture. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential association and implementing synchronized agricultural credit and diversification adoption to catastrophic risk manage for wheat production in Punjab, Pakistan. This study used stratified random sampling technique for collecting data of 480 wheat farmers’ respondents from production based categorized six districts of Punjab Pakistan. Multinomial and bivariate probit regression models were used in the study to examine the effects of farm and social feathers, disastrous risks farmers view and their attitude to sources of risk moreover potential relationship in agricultural credit and diversification as risk management strategy. Estimates of the study indicated the association in risk management strategies adoption while adopting single risk management strategy motivates farmers to adopt another strategy at same time. Furthermore, findings also indicated as farmer schooling, age, family return, ownership of land, farm size and farmer risk oppose character were highlighted the most influenced features for adopting various risk management strategies. Policy makers and state based authorities can be assisted by the accumulated information of multinomial and bivariate probit regression models in evaluating plans of risk management and willingness of farmer in accept government supported risk managing strategies in incidence of traditional practices for managing farmhouse risk.

Does the Sustainability of the Anthropocene Technosphere Imply an Existential Risk for Our Species? Thinking with Peter Haff

Throughout the 20th century, several thinkers noticed that Technology was becoming a global phenomenon. More recently, US geologist Peter Haff claimed that a Technosphere is now in place and can be conceived as a new Earth geological system. This unprecedented situation is creating enormous challenges not only for our species, since more and more of its members are now dependent on the subsistence of this man-made sphere, but also for other species and natural ecosystems that have become increasingly dependent on it. Perhaps the most crucial of these challenges is the sustainability of the Technosphere itself. In the first part of the article, I attempted a critical reconstruction of Haff’s Technosphere concept. The second part is dedicated to analyzing how the unsustainability of the Technosphere represents a global catastrophic risk and ultimately an existential risk.