The variability associated with the aflatoxin test procedure used to estimate aflatoxins in bulk shipments of dried figs was investigated. Sixteen 10 kg laboratory samples were taken from each of twenty commercial bulk lots of dried figs suspected of aflatoxin contamination. Two 55 g test portions were taken from each comminuted laboratory sample using water-slurry comminution methods. Finally, two aliquots from the test portion/solvent blend were analysed for both aflatoxin B1 and total aflatoxins. The total variance associated with testing dried figs for aflatoxins was measured and partitioned into sampling, sample preparation and analytical variance components (total variance is equal to the sum of the sampling variance, sample preparation variance, and analytical variance). Each variance component increased as aflatoxin concentration increased. Using regression analysis, mathematical expressions were developed to model the relationship between aflatoxin concentration and the total, sampling, sample preparation and analytical variances when testing dried figs for aflatoxins. The regression equations were modified to estimate the variances for any sample size, test portion size, and number of analyses for a specific lot aflatoxin concentration. When using the above aflatoxin test procedure to sample a fig lot at 10 μg/kg total aflatoxins, the sampling, sample preparation, analytical, and total variances were 47.20, 0.29, 0.13, and 47.62, respectively. The sampling, sample preparation, and analytical steps accounted for 99.1, 0.6, and 0.3% of the total variance, respectively. For the aflatoxin test procedure used in this study, the sampling step is the largest source of variability.