Systematic Decisions Under Uncertainty: An Experiment Towards Better Geosteering Operations

Geosteering workflows are increasingly based on updated quantifications of subsurface uncertainties during real-time operations. These workflows give tremendous amounts of information that a human brain cannot make sense of. To advance value creation from geosteering, the industry should develop and adopt decision support systems (DSSs). DSSs might provide either expert tools which inform decisions under uncertainty or optimization-based recommendations. In both cases the adoption of a DSS would require new skillsets to dynamically and systematically interpret uncertainties and parameters required for operational decision making. The aim of this work is to identify the relevant skills and ways to aid good geosteering decisions. We present an experiment where 54 geosteering experts took part in performing steering decisions under uncertainty in a controlled environment using an online competition platform. In the experiment we compare the decisions of the experts with an AI bot that had the same information at its disposal. Two of the participants beat the AI bot. A survey was conducted to reveal their winning strategies. The survey shows that both of the winners had extensive prior geosteering experience. That, together with luck, allowed them to beat the AI bot. At the same time neither of the winners utilized the full potential of uncertainty tools in the platform. While geosteering experts possess insights due to prior experience, the information in the real-time data will still be overwhelming, sometimes resulting in inconsistent and unreliable geosteering choices. The AI bot guarantees reliable and consistent decisions by optimization based on systematic uncertainty analysis. Further development of DSSs, and their use as training-simulators for experts, should lead to improved well placements through adopting well-established principles for high-quality decision-making.

Entrepreneurial opportunity decisions under uncertainty: Recognizing the complementing role of personality traits and cognitive skills

Purpose: The aim of this paper focuses on advancing the entrepreneurial literature by enhancing the understanding of the connections between personal behavior and cognitive skills in decision making under uncertainty. Methodology: The method of this research has been adapted the framework used by Garrett and Holland (2015), who developed propositions from the conceptual narratives of how environmental uncertainty and complexity differentially affect the motivations and cognition of independent entrepreneurs and corporate entrepreneurs to engage in entrepreneurial action. Findings: The findings of this research provide a conceptual basis for a broader perspective on behaviors and cognitions that motivate or hinder entrepreneurial actions while at the same time, positioning the entrepreneur’s decision at the core of decision theory. Implications for theory and practice: Theoretically, this research contributes to a holistic view of opportunity decisions. It redirects the traditional analyses path of entrepreneurial decisions discussed distinctively from the personal behavior or cognition paradigm, which does not provide a complete view into the larger entrepreneurial decisions under uncertainty. Practically, our argument provides further insight into the black box of entrepreneurial opportunity decisions under uncertainty and thus highlights the need for a broader perspective for the entrepreneur, especially in the early stage of venture formation, where some cognitions and required personal attributes are needed in consonance for entrepreneurial action. Originality and value: Entrepreneurship research on decision making under uncertainty has mainly focused on the effect of uncertainty on entrepreneurial actions, while an attempt at the individual level, particularly, from the cognitive framework seeks to explain why actions differ. Scholarly efforts have also been made on what informs entrepreneurial actions from the perspective of the entrepreneur’s personal attributes. However, no integrated approach is offered in the literature to study how cognitive skills and personality traits complement each other.