Foreign Direct Investment Liberalization in Communist Regimes: A Theoretical Model Based on the Comparison Among China, Cuba, North Korea, and Vietnam

What are the driving factors for foreign direct investment liberalization in formerly communist countries? Previous research explains foreign direct investment liberalization as a function of the intensification of international commerce and democratization; however, the likes of China, Cuba, North Korea, and Vietnam hardly fit into this narrative. The following contribution makes a theoretical argument about the causes of foreign direct investment liberalization in communist authoritarian regimes with highly centralized and closed economies. We argue that foreign direct investment liberalization is caused by external shocks materializing in policy adaptations. The degree of foreign direct investment liberalization depends on the balance of power between actors who favor liberalization and actors who stand to profit from rent-seeking economies. The relative power of both factions determines the magnitude and type of foreign direct investment liberalization. We test this theoretical argument using case studies, which include China and Vietnam as representatives of gradual transitions and Cuba and North Korea as representatives of traditional rent-seeking economies.

Trade, growth, and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model

In models in which convergence in income levels across closed countries is driven by faster accumulation of a productive factor in the poorer countries, opening these countries to trade can stop convergence and even cause divergence. We make this point using a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model — a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model — with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods.

Trade, growth, and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model

In models in which convergence in income levels across closed countries is driven by faster accumulation of a productive factor in the poorer countries, opening these countries to trade can stop convergence and even cause divergence. We make this point using a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model — a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model — with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods.

EU-US Relations: Reinventing the Transatlantic Agenda

With Joe Biden’s victory, there is at least a four-year window to revive ‘an alliance of democracies’, face up to authoritarian powers and closed economies that exploit the openness on which American and European societies are built, and shape those parts of multilateralism that serve transatlantic interests.

FOREIGN TRADE STRENGTH OF COUNTRIES UNDER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic became the major event affecting the global economy. Both supply- and demand-driven recession and changes in consumption and investment behaviour became a new reality. The purpose of the paper is to estimate foreign trade strength and vulnerability of countries under the shrinking global demand for specific groups of goods and services as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures to contain it. The proposed foreign trade strength index under pandemic is based on exports of pharmaceutical products, medical equipment, food, IT and audiovisual goods and services etc. (+); tourism and transport services, oil, ores and metals, transport vehicles and most other types of machinery etc. (-); and imports of medical and related products (-) in comparison to a country’s GDP. The ranking is provided for the largest 100 economies. 90% of the countries have absolute trade vulnerability under the pandemic. There are 3 types of economies with relatively better trade soundness: exporters of medical products and ICT services (Ireland and Switzerland), food exporters and closed economies. The most vulnerable economies include small island countries which depend on tourism services exports, oil exporting countries and exporters of machines and equipment. Ukraine ranks 38th and has a standardized value of the index +0.4 mainly because of its food exports which help offsets the weakness due to the metal exports. Vulnerability of large economies is caused by their merchandise export structure, while vulnerability of small economies is due to their services export structure. Key words: foreign trade, economic resilience, demand for goods and services, dependence on global markets, pandemic, quarantine measures.

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE KEYNESIAN MODEL USING DATA FROM THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

The article is a summary of the research project of the applicability of the Keynesian macroeconomic model for closed economies on the actual historical data for the Republic of Ireland for forecasting purposes. Different econometric techniques and tests are used to estimate the quality of the econometric specification based on the Keynesian model, to assess adequacy of the model and relevance of the forecasting results. In the article essential quantitative indicators and subsequent conclusions are presented in order to come up with fair and unbiased estimation of the applicability of the Keynesian macroeconomic model.