Spatial Estimation of Accelerated Stimuli Is Based on a Linear Extrapolation of First-Order Information

We examined spatial estimation of accelerating objects (−8, −4, 0, +4, or +8 deg/s2) during occlusion (600, 1,000 ms) in a spatial prediction motion task. Multiple logistic regression indicated spatial estimation was influenced by these factors such that participants estimated objects with positive acceleration to reappear behind less often than those with negative acceleration, and particularly after the longer occlusion. Individual-participant logistic regressions indicated spatial estimation was better predicted by a first-order extrapolation of the occluded object motion based on pre-occlusion velocity rather than a second-order extrapolation that took account of object acceleration. We suggest a general principle of extrapolation is involved in prediction motion tasks whereby there is a contraction of the variable of interest (i.e., displacement in spatial prediction motion and time in temporal prediction motion). Such an approach to extrapolation could be advantageous as it would offer participants better opportunity to correct for an initial estimation error.