GIS Spatial Analysis Modeling for Land Use Change. A Bibliometric Analysis of the Intellectual Base and Trends

The paper aimed to express the cognitive and intellectual structure of research executed in the field of GIS-based land use change modeling. An exploration of the Web of Science database showed that research in GIS spatial analysis modeling for land use change began in the early 1990s and has continued since then, with a substantial growth in the 21st century. By science mapping methods, particularly co-coupling, co-citation, and citation, as well as bibliometric measures, like impact indices, this study distinguishes the most eminent authors, institutions, countries, and journals in GIS-based land use change modeling. The results showed that GIS-based analysis of land use change modeling is a multi- and interdisciplinary research topic, as reflected in the diversity of WoS research categories, the most productive journals, and the topics analyzed. The highest impact on the world sciences in the field have can be attributed to European Universities, particularly from The Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, and Great Britain. However, China and the United States published the highest number of research papers.

SPATIAL SIMULATION BASED ON GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA (CA) FOR LAND USE CHANGE MODELING IN SINGARAJA CITY AND ITS SURROUNDING AREA

Singaraja is the second largest city after Denpasar in Bali. The magnitude of the potential of the region both trade and services, agriculture and tourism in Buleleng Regency has given a very broad impact not only on the economy but also the use of land. Economic development in the city of Singaraja cause some effects such as population growth, an increasing number of facilities (social, economic, health, and others), as well as changes in land use.Changes in land use have a serious impact on the environment in the city of Singaraja. The development of urban areas of Singaraja has given the excesses of increasing the land conversion. Suburb dominated by wetland agriculture has now turned into buildings to meet the needs of shelter, trade and services as well as urban utilities. This study was conducted by mean to determine how changes in land use from agricultural land into build up land during twelve years (period of 2002 - 2014) and the prediction of land use within the next 12 years (period of 2020 and 2026). Prediction of land use changes will be done using spatial simulation method which is integrating Cellular Automata (CA) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) which analyzed based on land requirement, the driving variable of land use changes (population and road) and the inhabiting variable of land use change (slope steepness and rivers).Keywords : Land Use Change, Land Use Change Modeling, Celullar Automata, GIS