South Africa elections erode ANC's long-term position

Significance The ruling ANC's national vote share dropped below the symbolic 50% threshold to 45.6%, its lowest score in its 27 years in power. It now controls only two metropolitan municipalities (metros) out of the country’s eight. The second-largest party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), dropped more than five points to 21.8% amid historically low voter turnout. Impacts ANC infighting will intensify ahead of its national elective conference in late 2022. President Cyril Ramaphosa still looks set to be elected for a second term. Violent protests by disaffected citizens and ‘shutdowns’, some led by politically ambitious community leaders, will increase. There may be an uptick in political killings, particularly within the ANC, if by-elections are held to change contested candidate lists.

A PROVINCIAL CONCERN? Political killings in South Africa

Politically motivated killings have occupied a relatively marginal position as an issue of public concern in South Africa since 1994. This may reflect the provincial nature of the problem, since such killings have mainly occurred in KwaZulu-Natal, with a much smaller number occurring in Mpumalanga and even fewer recorded elsewhere. Based on a scan of documentary information, this article estimates that there have been approximately 450 political killings in KwaZulu-Natal since 1994, with most having taken place in the mid and late 1990s and just under 25% (107) since 2003. The root of the problem in KwaZulu-Natal may be the militarisation of the province during the apartheid period. Some political killings in the province continue to be linked to inter-party conflict that has roots in that time. However, political killings since the end of apartheid are mostly linked to local political rivalries and connections to criminal networks, notably in the taxi industry. Though the problem is concentrated in specific provinces it is likely to impact on political life in South Africa more broadly.