South Africa elections erode ANC's long-term position
Significance The ruling ANC's national vote share dropped below the symbolic 50% threshold to 45.6%, its lowest score in its 27 years in power. It now controls only two metropolitan municipalities (metros) out of the country’s eight. The second-largest party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), dropped more than five points to 21.8% amid historically low voter turnout. Impacts ANC infighting will intensify ahead of its national elective conference in late 2022. President Cyril Ramaphosa still looks set to be elected for a second term. Violent protests by disaffected citizens and ‘shutdowns’, some led by politically ambitious community leaders, will increase. There may be an uptick in political killings, particularly within the ANC, if by-elections are held to change contested candidate lists.