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2022 ◽  
pp. 135406882110679
Author(s):  
Samuel A. T. Johnston ◽  
Stefanie Sprong

Western European politics has experienced considerable change since the 1980s, with the emergence of new parties and immigration’s politicisation. However, no studies have examined Green party discussions of immigration, or their interaction with radical right parties. We hypothesise that increases in the radical right’s vote share, and the saliency they attach to immigration, will incentivise Greens to discuss immigration more. We also examine an alternative explanation that how salient immigration is for left- and right-wing parties will affect immigration’s saliency for Greens. We test this by applying structural topic models to parliamentary speeches in the Dutch Tweede Kamer for 2002–2019. We find that Greens react to the radical right, as the latter’s vote share is positively associated with immigration’s saliency for Greens, although radical right immigration saliency’s effect is not robust. Furthermore, we do not find evidence that Greens react to immigration’s saliency in left- or right-wing party speeches.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field ◽  
Kaitlyn M. Berry ◽  
Govind Persad

We provide the first age-standardized race/ethnicity-specific, state-specific vaccination rates for the United States, encompassing all states reporting race/ethnicity-specific vaccinations. The data reflect vaccinations through mid-October 2021. We use indirect age standardization to compare racial/ethnic state vaccination rates to national age-specific vaccination patterns. Results show that white and Black state median vaccination rates are, respectively, 89% and 76% of what would be predicted based on age; Hispanic and Native rates are almost identical to what would be predicted; and Asian-American/Pacific Islander rates are 110% of what would be predicted. We also find that racial/ethnic group vaccination rates are associated with state politics, as proxied by 2020 Trump vote share: for each percentage point increase in 2020 Trump vote share, vaccination rates decline by 1.08 percent of what would be predicted based on age. This decline is sharpest for Native American populations, although Native vaccinations are reported for relatively few states.


Significance The ruling ANC's national vote share dropped below the symbolic 50% threshold to 45.6%, its lowest score in its 27 years in power. It now controls only two metropolitan municipalities (metros) out of the country’s eight. The second-largest party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), dropped more than five points to 21.8% amid historically low voter turnout. Impacts ANC infighting will intensify ahead of its national elective conference in late 2022. President Cyril Ramaphosa still looks set to be elected for a second term. Violent protests by disaffected citizens and ‘shutdowns’, some led by politically ambitious community leaders, will increase. There may be an uptick in political killings, particularly within the ANC, if by-elections are held to change contested candidate lists.


Significance The result comes despite United Russia's limited popularity and support base. The Communists performed better than in 2016, though they believe their real vote share was manipulated downwards. The political establishment appears content that this exercise in limited choice went the right way, thanks to manipulation before and during the polls. Impacts Moscow will dismiss external criticism and accuse the West of election interference. United Russia will fade back into the background, rubberstamping legislation but inactive on the ground. United Russia candidates Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reportedly plan to renounce their Duma seats.


Significance The CPRF's relationship with the authorities has become increasingly conflictual. The CPRF's rise is rooted in its ability to exploit growing protest trends, but curtailed by a conservative leadership, structure and image. Impacts A strong second-place position will help the CPRF execute the transition to a new generation of leaders. A plethora of small parties, many Kremlin creations, will draw off votes from the CPRF and others. Fraud could depress the CPRF's vote share but would reduce the legitimacy of the elections.


Significance After winning over 48.2% of the national vote in the 2019 general elections, the FdT’s vote share dropped to only 31.8%. Recriminations are rife within the government, as well as disputes over how to improve the FdT’s performance in the November midterms. Impacts Despite voter doubts about both large coalitions, leftist and rightist options are gaining limited traction. The business environment will remain unfavourable amid instability and the risk of another COVID-19 wave. Radical factions within the government will lack the resources to sustain clientelistic policies in an adverse economic situation.


Significance The incarceration of former President Jacob Zuma sparked looting, destruction of critical infrastructure and denial of strategic communication routes. Inter-communal confrontations in Indian areas near Durban helped to boost the provincial death toll to 251, as against 76 in the more populous Gauteng Province. KZN’s demographic, historical, economic and strategic features make its stability particularly precarious. Impacts The ANC will likely lose vote share in KZN in upcoming municipal elections. KZN is the most likely location for any repeat of the July uprising. The proliferation of local militias during the July uprising will further erode state authority.


2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (9) ◽  
pp. 3064-3092
Author(s):  
Tianyi Wang

I study the political impact of the first populist radio personality in American history. Father Charles Coughlin blended populist demagoguery, anti-Semitism, and fascist sympathies to create a hugely popular radio program that attracted 30 million weekly listeners in the 1930s. I find that exposure to Father Coughlin’s anti-Roosevelt broadcast reduced Franklin D. Roosevelt’s vote share in the 1936 presidential election. Coughlin’s effects were larger among Catholics and persisted after Coughlin left the air. Moreover, places more exposed to Coughlin’s broadcast were more likely to form a local branch of the pro-Nazi German-American Bund and sold fewer war bonds during World War II. (JEL D72, L82, N32, N42, Z12)


Author(s):  
Resul Umit

Abstract Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.


2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882110323
Author(s):  
Elvin Ong

Existing analyses of opposition pre-electoral alliance formation in electoral autocracies neglect their coordinated election campaigns against incumbent autocrats. This paper argues that opposition alliance joint campaigns can increase the salience of the anti-regime cleavage, signal mutual compromise, and highlight the positive material and policy gains voters will reap following regime defeat. Together, they persuade ideologically and ethnically disparate opposition supporters to engage in the cross-party strategic voting necessary to maximize opposition vote share and their chances of winning. Empirical findings from Malaysia’s historic 2018 general elections support the theory’s propositions. A pre-electoral survey experiment estimates that an opposition alliance’s joint campaigns increases cross-party strategic voting by about 10 percentage points among opposition voters. Field interviews and ethnographic observation during the election campaigning revealed the diverse methods and mechanisms of joint campaigns. Malaysia’s Pakatan Harapan opposition alliance eventually prevailed through a combination of joint campaigning against a flailing incumbent.


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