Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico

To study inflation expectations and associated risk premia in emerging bond markets, this paper provides estimates for Mexico based on an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for their liquidity risk. In addition to documenting the existence of large and time-varying liquidity premia in nominal and real bond prices that are only weakly correlated, the results indicate that long-term inflation expectations in Mexico are well anchored close to the inflation target of the Bank of Mexico. Furthermore, Mexican inflation risk premia are larger and more volatile than those in Canada and the United States.

Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves

This paper quantitatively explores the role of external habits, nominal rigidities, and monetary policy for real and nominal bond yields in an asset-pricing endogenous growth model. The calibration captures the reported average positive slopes of U.S. real and nominal yield curves with sizable positive real and nominal bond risk premia. Habits are critical to generate positive real premia by altering the comovement of real rates and productivity shocks. Nominal rigidities generate monetary policy effects on real bonds. Stronger policy rule inflation responses or weaker output responses increase real term premia and reduce inflation risk premia. Relative to standard models, the paper provides an alternative interpretation of real and nominal bond risks. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.

Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility, and Macro Factors

We incorporate a latent stochastic volatility factor and macroeconomic expectations in an affine model for the term structure of nominal and real rates. We estimate the model over 1999–2016 on U.S. data for nominal and TIPS yields, the realized and implied volatility of T-bonds, and survey forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. We find relatively stable inflation risk premia averaging at 40 basis points at the long-end, and which are strongly related to the volatility factor and conditional mean of output growth. We also document real risk premia that turn negative in the post-crisis period, and a non-negligible variance risk premium.