Quantifying the hedge and safe-haven properties of bond markets for cryptocurrency indices

PurposeThis study quantified the hedge and safe haven features of bond markets for multiple cryptocurrency indices from June 2014 to April 2021 to highlight whether bond markets offer hedging facilities to uncertainty indices of cryptocurrencies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employed the methodology of Baur and McDermott (2010) and AGDCC-GARCH model to measure the hedge and safe-haven characteristics of three bond markets (BBGT, SPGB and SKUK) for three uncertainty indexes of cryptocurrencies (UCRPR, UCRPO and ICEA).FindingsThe authors find that bond markets are neither hedge nor safe havens except for SKUK which is a safe haven investment for cryptocurrency indices and offers substantial diversification during the periods of economic fragility. In addition, the hedge effectiveness of SPGB outperforms other bonds during crisis periods and provides sufficient diversification potential for cryptocurrency indices.Practical implicationsThe findings are important for policymakers, regulatory bodies, financial firms and investors in assessing hedge and safe haven characteristics of bond markets against cryptocurrency indices.Originality/valueEmploying the novel methodology of AGDCC-GARCH with three different bond markets and three uncertainty indices of cryptocurrencies, the current study adds to the existing strand of literature in terms of quantifying hedge and safe-haven attributes of bond markets for cryptocurrency uncertainty indexes.

The Influence of ASEAN Bond Market Integration in the Philippines’ Inflationary Pressures, Credit Expansions, and its Challenges

Bond markets have grown mature in many countries; however, the quality of financial integration varies across ASEAN economies. In the case of bond markets in the ASEAN +3, they experienced fast development; however, they are still less integrated. This study attempts to examine the ramifications of the ASEAN bond market integration and past crises to the Philippines’ inflation, credit, and growth and identify what impedes the development of the bond market for the period of 1992 to 2017. The study also aims to have a more in-depth analysis on preventing rises from happening and controlling both credit expansions and inflationary pressures. The Ordinary Least Square method (OLS) was used to examine the relationship of inflation, credit, bond market index, real interest rate, and integration to the Philippines’ growth. This led to this paper providing empirical insights that credit has a significant positive relationship with GDP growth; while, inflation has a significant negative relationship with GDP growth. However, the bond market index and integration showed insignificant negative results. This study provides possible reasons for the said conclusion and suggests ways not only to develop and grow the debt market in the Philippines but also to sustain long-run economic stability and growth to become on par with other ASEAN economies.

The Potential of Green Bond Markets as Drivers of Change

The risks derived from climate change and the social inequalities of the economic model en-danger the continuity of society as we know it. The investment community is developing financial products in order to channel the environ-mental and social transition process, with green bonds and social bonds being key instruments to facilitate the change of model. In just a few years, investments made in assets that respect environmental sustainability, social responsibility and good management practices have in-creased from 12% to 42% of total investments made by investors around the world. The current paper it is intended to discuss the regulation and evolution of green bonds since its inception in 2007, globally and nationally, focusing on the principles of implementation, benefits and role of the COVID-19 pandemic in issuing green bonds.

Spillover Effects from the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal: An Analysis of Stock and Corporate Bond Markets

This study examines spillover effects following Volkswagen’s admission of emissions cheating. We first estimate initial operational losses of 8.45% of Volkswagen’s equity market capitalization on the date before the announcement, reputational losses up to five times these losses, and significant negative shocks to its stocks and bonds. Analyzing spillover effects from this shock beyond the usually only measured losses in equity value, we find significant negative net spillover effects to European competitors and suppliers in both stock and bond markets. Studying the economic effects in more detail, we show that Volkswagen’s total losses of 27.4 billion euros in terms of changes in equity market values over the first five event days are almost entirely composed of abnormal losses. Furthermore, competitors (suppliers) overall suffered 18.3 (12.6) billion euros of abnormal losses during this time, with 60% (69%) of the firms exhibiting negative changes, especially European competitors and suppliers connected to Volkswagen. These figures are further increased by negative bond market value changes. Overall, our results strongly emphasize that neglecting debt holders losses can lead to an underestimation of such events.

Financial stress effects on financial markets: dynamic connectedness and portfolio hedging

PurposeThis paper investigates the impact of financial stress on the dynamic connectedness and hedging for oil market and stock-bond markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the wavelet coherence model to examine the interactions between financial stress, oil and GCC stock and bond markets. Second, the authors apply the time–frequency connectedness developed by Barunik and Krehlik (2018) so as to identify the direction and scale connectedness among these markets. Third, the authors examine the optimal weights, hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness for oil and financial markets based on constant conditional correlation (CCC), dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK)-GARCH models.FindingsThe authors have found that the correlation between the oil and stock-bond markets tends to be stable in nonshock periods, but it evolves during oil and financial shocks at lower frequencies. Moreover, the authors find that the oil market and financial stress are the main transmitters of risks. The connectedness is mainly driven by the long term, demonstrating that the markets rapidly process the financial stress spillover effect, and the shock is transmitted over the long run. Optimal weights show different patterns for each negative and positive case of the financial stress index. In the negative (positive) financial stress case, investors should have more oil (stocks) than stocks (oil) in their portfolio in order to minimize risk.Originality/valueThis study has gone some way toward enhancing one’s understanding of the time–frequency connectedness between the financial stress, oil and GCC stock-bond markets. Second, it identifies the impact of financial stress into hedging strategies offering important insights for investors aiming at managing and reducing portfolio risk.

Central Counterparties and Liquidity Provision in Cash Markets

This paper investigates increased liquidity provision by market makers resulting from their ability to reduce balance sheet encumbrance through the use of central counterparties (CCPs). The introduction of the Basel III leverage rule constitutes a shock to market makers’ balance sheets and thus affects their capacity to intermediate trades. Using trade-by-trade data from sovereign bond markets, we show that liquidity provision by CCP members decreased to a lesser extent following the rule change. We attribute these findings to balance sheet reductions due to the netting enabled by CCPs, thereby highlighting their importance in cash markets.