Assessing poverty persistence in households with children

The analysis of poverty persistence received considerable attention in recent years. In this paper we explore the role of the adopted poverty measure in the analysis of its persistence. Specifically, we consider three measures: the risk of poverty, the severe material deprivation and subjective poverty, motivated by the understanding of poverty as a complex phenomenon and for which no single measure can effectively capture its several dimensions. The empirical analysis is based on the 2013-2016 longitudinal sample of the EU-SILC survey. We focus on Italian households with dependent children. We apply a correlated random effects probit models with endogenous initial conditions to assess genuine state dependence after controlling for structural household characteristics and variables related to participation in the labour market. A strong state dependence emerges, regardless of the considered poverty measure thus providing evidence of poverty and social exclusion persistence. We also find evidence of relevance of initial conditions for all measures in focus. Nonetheless, structural household characteristics and household level economic variables play roles that are often different in the three parallel models; these differences are consistent with the aims and nature of the alternative measures.

Income Convergence and the Flow Out of Poverty in Rural India

This article explores the income growth and poverty of rural Indian households, 1994–2005. The estimation strategy consists, first, of a convergence analysis to examine whether poor households are catching up in terms of income, which is then followed by a transition analysis to examine whether poor households are more likely to exit poverty than to remain poor—that is, to essentially test for whether poverty traps are escapable. The identification strategy explicitly addresses issues pertaining to the potential endogeneity and measurement error of initial income and poverty. We find evidence of both income convergence and poverty persistence, but with a higher probability of exiting poverty than of the remaining poor. This suggests that poverty traps, though existent, are not entrapping in rural India. The key variables driving these results are education, occupation and asset ownership. Finally, we discuss the policy implications and provide directions for future research in this area. JEL Codes: I32, J15, O15, O18, O47, Z12, Z13

Does the ecological quality of inherited campsites cause persistent inequalities and poverty in pastoral Mongolia?

Most socioeconomic surveys carried out in Mongolia since the regime change of the 1990s report persistent inequalities and poverty in pastoral communities. To understand the reasons for this phenomenon, we studied the relationships between livestock numbers and ecological characteristics of herders’ seasonal campsites in a community of the Mongolian Gobi. We classified herders with help of a regression tree into three categories, where herd size is correlated with the proportion of the Stipa glareosa and Psammochloa villosa grasses around campsites. We established in addition from livestock-based income estimations that poverty could affect the small herd category, owning on average less than 180 heads of livestock. We finally observed that herders mostly transmit their campsites to their descendants, particularly in the small herd category. Herders are hence durably associated with campsites whose quality is related to livestock numbers, which may be a factor of inequality and poverty persistence. To further understand these processes, the zootechnical influence of S. glareosa and P. villosa should be investigated, as well as historical and anthropological determinants of campsites repartition.