Introduction to Bayesian Statistical Inference

We present basic concepts of Bayesian statistical inference. We briefly introduce the Bayesian paradigm. We present the conjugate priors; a computational convenient way to quantify prior information for tractable Bayesian statistical analysis. We present tools for parametric and predictive inference, and particularly the design of point estimators, credible sets, and hypothesis tests. These concepts are presented in running examples. Supplementary material is available from GitHub.

Improved weather indices based Bayesian regression model for forecasting crop yield

As agriculture is the backbone of the Indian economy, Government needs a reliable forecast of crop yield for planning new schemes. The most extensively used technique for forecasting crop yield is regression analysis. The significance of parameters is one of the major problems of regression analysis. Non-significant parameters lead to absurd forecast values and these forecast values are not reliable. In such cases, models need to be improved. To improve the models, we have incorporated prior knowledge through the Bayesian technique and investigate the superiority of these models under the Bayesian framework. The Bayesian technique is one of the most powerful methodologies in the modern era of statistics. We have discussed different types of prior (informative, non-informative and conjugate priors). The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology has been briefly discussed for the estimation of parameters under Bayesian framework. To illustrate these models, production data of banana, mango and wheat yield data are taken under consideration. We compared the traditional regression model with the Bayesian regression model and conclusively infer that the models estimated under Bayesian framework provided superior results as compared to the models estimated under the classical approach.

Bayesian Inference under Small Sample Sizes Using General Noninformative Priors

This paper proposes a Bayesian inference method for problems with small sample sizes. A general type of noninformative prior is proposed to formulate the Bayesian posterior. It is shown that this type of prior can represent a broad range of priors such as classical noninformative priors and asymptotically locally invariant priors and can be derived as the limiting states of normal-inverse-Gamma conjugate priors, allowing for analytical evaluations of Bayesian posteriors and predictors. The performance of different noninformative priors under small sample sizes is compared using the likelihood combining both fitting and prediction performances. Laplace approximation is used to evaluate the likelihood. A realistic fatigue reliability problem was used to illustrate the method. Following that, an actual aeroengine disk lifing application with two test samples is presented, and the results are compared with the existing method.

Improved weather indices based Bayesian regression model for forecasting crop yield

As agriculture is the backbone of the Indian economy, Government needs a reliable forecast of crop yield for planning new schemes. The most extensively used technique for forecasting crop yield is regression analysis. The significance of parameters is one of the major problems of regression analysis. Non-significant parameters lead to absurd forecast values and these forecast values are not reliable. In such cases, models need to be improved. To improve the models, we have incorporated prior knowledge through the Bayesian technique and investigate the superiority of these models under the Bayesian framework. The Bayesian technique is one of the most powerful methodologies in the modern era of statistics. We have discussed different types of prior (informative, non-informative and conjugate priors). The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology has been briefly discussed for the estimation of parameters under Bayesian framework. To illustrate these models, production data of banana, mango and wheat yield data are taken under consideration. We compared the traditional regression model with the Bayesian regression model and conclusively infer that the models estimated under Bayesian framework provided superior results as compared to the models estimated under the classical approach.

ANOVA for Some Non-Normal Data by Inverting Reliability Estimators

Standard analysis of variance assumes observations are normally distributed within groups. This paper develops some analysis of variance tests for data which are Bernoulli, Poisson, exponential, or geometric distributed within groups. The tests are shown in Table 1. For natural exponential family data with conjugate priors for the distribution of means, reliability estimators directly estimate the posterior shrinkage. Using the linear posterior expectation induced by conjugate prior, a method is developed to construct an analysis of variance test by determining an appropriate transformation of a reliability estimator. The sampling distribution of the transformed reliability estimator under the assumption of group mean equality is derived to construct an appropriate test statistic. This method is used to invert the generalized KR21 estimators of Foster (2021) for some non-normal data, and it is also shown that the standard analysis of variance F-test statistic can be transformed into a consistent reliability estimator under the same assumptions. A limited simulation study shows that the inverted KR21 test has, in some scenarios, higher power than a standard analysis of variance or a generalized linear model analysis of variance.

Multi-Ellipsoidal Extended Target Tracking with Variational Bayes Inference

<div>In this work, we propose a novel extended target tracking algorithm, which is capable of representing a target or a group of targets with multiple ellipses. Each ellipse is modeled by an unknown symmetric positive-definite random matrix. The proposed model requires solving two challenging problems. First, the data association problem between the measurements and the sub-objects. Second, the inference problem that involves non-conjugate priors and likelihoods which needs to be solved within the recursive filtering framework. We utilize the variational Bayes inference method to solve the association problem and to approximate the intractable true posterior. The performance of the proposed solution is demonstrated in simulations and real-data experiments. The results show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in accuracy with lower computational complexity.</div>

Multi-Ellipsoidal Extended Target Tracking with Variational Bayes Inference

<div>In this work, we propose a novel extended target tracking algorithm, which is capable of representing a target or a group of targets with multiple ellipses. Each ellipse is modeled by an unknown symmetric positive-definite random matrix. The proposed model requires solving two challenging problems. First, the data association problem between the measurements and the sub-objects. Second, the inference problem that involves non-conjugate priors and likelihoods which needs to be solved within the recursive filtering framework. We utilize the variational Bayes inference method to solve the association problem and to approximate the intractable true posterior. The performance of the proposed solution is demonstrated in simulations and real-data experiments. The results show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in accuracy with lower computational complexity.</div>