Asymmetric Consumption Effects of Transitory Income Shocks*

We use the responses of a representative sample of Dutch households to survey questions that ask how much their consumption would change in response to unexpected, transitory income shocks (positive or negative). The questionnaire also distinguishes between relatively small income changes (a one-month increase or drop in income), and relatively larger ones (equal to three-months' income). The results are broadly in line with models of intertemporal choice with precautionary saving, borrowing constraints and finite horizons.

Framework

Chapter 2 sets out the basic framework. It considers an economy evolving indefinitely in discrete time, with producers, consumers, and a central bank as principal actors. Individuals plan over finite horizons and form expectations according to what they see. Money is conceived of as a commodity that is produced through credit creation rather than distributed by a fancy helicopter. This natural way to represent money is rarely followed in the literature and differs sharply from the usual helicopter drops because it ties money creation to credit creation. The chapter’s upshot is a system of simultaneous equations determining prices, wages, and the nominal interest rate. Using this solution, individuals revise their expectations, and the economy proceeds to the next period. The chapter concludes with functional and numerical specifications for later simulations, the purpose of which is to analyze key economic processes and to derive meaningful results.