Optimizing Earthquake Early Warning Alert Distance Strategies Using the July 2019 Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquakes

ABSTRACT The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system aims to alert people who experience modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) IV+ shaking during an earthquake using source estimates (magnitude and location) to estimate median-expected peak ground motions with distance, then using these ground motions to determine median-expected MMI and thus the extent of MMI IV shaking. Because median ground motions are used, even if magnitude and location are correct, there will be people outside the alert region who experience MMI IV shaking but do not receive an alert (missed alerts). We use 91,000 “Did You Feel It?” survey responses to the July 2019 Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes to determine which ground-motion to intensity conversion equation (GMICE) best fits median MMI with distance. We then explore how incorporating uncertainty from the ground-motion prediction equation and the GMICE in the alert distance calculation can produce more accurate MMI IV alert regions for a desired alerting strategy (e.g., aiming to alert 95% of people who experience MMI IV+ shaking), assuming accurate source characterization. Without incorporating ground-motion uncertainties, we find MMI IV alert regions using median-expected ground motions alert fewer than 20% of the population that experiences MMI IV+ shaking. In contrast, we find >94% of the people who experience MMI IV+ shaking can be included in the MMI IV alert region when two standard deviations of ground-motion uncertainty are included in the alert distance computation. The optimal alerting strategy depends on the false alert tolerance of the community due to the trade-off between minimizing missed and false alerts. This is especially the case for situations like the Mw 6.4 earthquake when alerting 95% of the 5 million people who experience MMI IV+ also results in alerting 14 million people who experience shaking below this level and do not need to take protective action.

Increasing corvid tolerance to humans in urban ecosystems with increasing latitude

The rapid growth of cities causes behaviour changes in birds in response to urban environmental factors. The avian response to human disturbance has recently been studied by a non-invasive research tool as an alert distance (AD) and a flight initiation distance (FID) assessment. The tolerance of hooded crows (n = 395), jackdaws (n = 394) and rooks (n = 169) to humans was assessed by AD and FID. It was shown that the FID of all species is maximal during the summer, when the parents send clear “danger—fly away” signals to the young and the birds fly away. The AD and FID of the three species reliably correlates with the season. Rooks showed FID species-specificity in seven cities of Eastern Europe. Comparison of the attitude of birds to people in cities that have similarities in human culture showed that tolerance increases with increasing latitude in all species and is statistically significant only in the jackdaw. This should be taken into account in environmental protection measures.

Decreased vigilance or habituation to humans? Mechanisms on increased boldness in urban animals

Increased boldness is one of the most prevalent behavioral modifications seen in urban animals and is thought to be a coping response to anthropogenic environmental alterations. Most previous studies have shown enhanced boldness manifested as changes in responses to humans approaching, such as reductions in flight initiation distance (FID). However, this includes two confounding factors related to “boldness,” that is, reduction of vigilance and habituation to humans. Confounding these totally different processes could lead to our misunderstanding of urban adaptation and how to properly manage urban wildlife. Here, we propose a simple framework to separate the two processes using two flight distance measures toward different approaching threats. We considered that the distance at which targeted individuals noticed an approaching object (i.e., alert distance, AD) was related to vigilance, whereas FID represented risk assessment, which is related to habituation. We applied a predictive framework using AD and FID to Eurasian red squirrels’ responses to multiple threats of different risk levels (i.e., humans, model predators, and novel objects). AD was shorter in urban individuals compared with rural ones but not different among the approaching objects. FID was shorter in urban individuals and also varied among the objects with the shortest FID toward humans, whereas rural individuals showed similar FID to the different objects. These results suggest that, although urban individuals showed reduced vigilance, they could still assess different risk levels. Our framework can easily be applied to many animals and could significantly improve our understanding of wild animals’ adaptations to urban environments.

Human activity affects the perception of risk by mule deer

Human activity has been shown to influence how animals assess the risk of predation, but we know little about the spatial scale of such impacts. We quantified how vigilance and flight behavior in mule deer Odocoileus hemionus varied with distance from an area of concentrated human activity—a subalpine field station. An observer walked trails at various distances away from the station looking for deer. Upon encounter, the observer walked toward the focal animal and noted the distance at which it alerted and directed its attention to the approaching human (Alert Distance; AD), and the distance at which it fled (Flight Initiation Distance; FID). AD and FID both increased nonlinearly with distance from the center of the field station, reaching plateaus around 250 m and 750 m, respectively. Deer also tended to flee by stotting or running, rather than by walking, when far from the station but they walked away when near the station. These results indicate that deer perceive lower risk near a focused area of human activity, and that vigilance and flight behaviors respond on somewhat different spatial scales. The concept of a spatial “human footprint” on behavior may be useful for understanding how human activities affect wildlife.

Alert distance as an alternative measure of bird tolerance to human disturbance: implications for park design

Animal tolerance to human approaches may be used to establish buffers for wildlife that can minimize the probability that animals will be disturbed by human activity. Alert distance (the distance between an animal and an approaching human at which point the animal begins to exhibit alert behaviours to the human) has been proposed as an indicator of tolerance mainly for waterbirds; however, little is known about its utility for other bird species. The factors that influenced alert distances of four bird species to pedestrian approaches in five large wooded fragments in the city of Madrid (Spain) were analysed. Location of human activity affected only Passer domesticus alert distances, which increased in the proximity of pathways. Habitat structure modified alert distances of all the species (Passer domesticus, Turdus merula, Columba palumbus, and Pica pica), increasing bird tolerance with greater availability of escape cover (shrub and coniferous cover, and shrub height). Alert distances varied among species, with large species being less tolerant of human disturbance than small ones. Alert distance appears to be a more conservative indicator of tolerance than flight distances, because it includes a buffer zone (the difference between alert and flight distance) in which birds may adapt their reaction to the behaviour of visitors. Alert distance may be used in the determination of minimum approaching areas, allowing people to enjoy their visit to parks, and birds to use patches for foraging and breeding without being displaced.