Cross-Validation of the Revised Version of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG-R) in a Sample of Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses

The aim of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the German version of the revised Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the VRAG-R. Therefore, VRAG-R ratings were made retrospectively in an Austrian sample of 534 individuals convicted of a sexual offense who were followed up with an average of 7.62 years. The VRAG-R showed large effect sizes for the predictive accuracy of violent (AUC = .75) and general recidivism (AUC = .78) and significant but rather small effect sizes (AUC = .63 and .61, respectively) in predicting any sexual and sexual contact recidivism. Furthermore, for the prediction of violent recidivism but not for sexual recidivism the VRAG-R was incrementally predictive beyond the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the Static-99. Finally, the VRAG-R absolute recidivism rates for the risk bins showed satisfactory calibration properties. Taken together, the results of the present study support the cross-national utility of the VRAG-R and its use in applied risk assessment settings also in German-speaking countries.

Cross-Validation of the Discrimination and Calibration Properties of the VRAG-R in a Treated Sexual Offender Sample

The present study featured an examination of the predictive properties of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide–Revised (VRAG-R) in a treated sample of sexual offenders, using modern risk metrics. The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the original Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) were examined for comparison purposes. The three measures were rated archivally on 296 treated sexual offenders followed up 17.6 years. VRAG-R scores demonstrated good discrimination of recidivists from nonrecidivists for sexual (area under the curve [AUC] = .60-.67) and violent (AUC = .70-.78) recidivism, and were incremental in the prediction of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for baseline sexual violence risk and treatment change. The VRAG-R bin structure demonstrated good calibration, although the present sample generated lower 5-year estimates of general violence compared with the normative sample. Application of the VRAG-R in the assessment and management of violence risk, via integration with dynamic risk assessment information, is discussed.