California Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Evaluations in the Field: Static-99R and Diagnostic Field Reliability

Tests and diagnoses used in sexually violent predator (SVP) evaluations must be reliable, as reliability is foundational to validity. The current study contained a stratified sample of evaluations of 395 individuals referred as potential SVPs between 2012 and 2017. Each individual was initially evaluated by at least two experts. The sample included three groups: individuals not meeting SVP criteria ( N = 200, or 400 evaluations), individuals meeting SVP criteria ( N = 95, with 190 evaluations), and individuals where evaluators disagreed ( N = 100, with 200 evaluations). The sample also included 200 subsequent independent evaluations on these “disagree” cases. Static-99R score intraclass coefficient (ICC) interrater reliability was good to excellent within each group and overall. Evaluators scored the Static-99R within one point of each other 87% of the time. Cohen’s kappa diagnostic agreement for Pedophilic Disorder was substantial. ASPD and substance abuse kappa were in the “fair” range, while OSPD diagnoses in the positive group were at the “moderate” level of agreement. Ethnic differences in diagnoses were consistent with other studies, with equivalent Static-99R ICC values across ethnic groups. There were no significant differences between state civil servants versus contracted experts in Static-99R ratings or final determinations. The results suggest that Static-99R scores have acceptable reliability in these evaluations, and Pedophilic Disorder (the most common paraphilic disorder in our study) and OSPD can be reliably diagnosed. We discuss limitations of the study, as well as the need for care in high-stakes evaluations given the imperfect reliability of psychological measurements.

A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.

A Comparison of Risk Factors Among Discharged Military Veterans and Civilians Involuntarily Hospitalized Under California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

While military veterans have a lower overall rate of incarceration for criminal offenses than civilians, they have a higher rate of incarceration for violent sexual offenses. Despite military veteran overrepresentation among individuals adjudicated for violent sexual offenses, little is known about their risk factors for sexual offending. This study compared military veterans and civilians who had been involuntarily hospitalized and discharged pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act. Pedophilic disorder appeared nearly twice as often among veterans than civilians (62.7% vs. 38.7%), whereas antisocial personality disorder was twice as common among civilians compared to veterans (48.1% vs. 23.9%). Consistent with the result for pedophilic disorder, veterans were more likely to target male victims age 13 and below, while civilians tended to target female victims over the age of 13. The results suggest different risk profiles for veterans compared to civilians who have been convicted of sexually violent offenses.

Evaluating Selection for Sexually Violent Predator Commitment: A Comparison of Those Committed, Not Committed, and Nearly Committed

We examined state-wide data of persons evaluated for Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) commitment and compared risk-relevant data of three groups: those committed as SVPs ( n = 374), those not recommended for commitment ( n = 2,707), and those nearly committed (recommended for commitment but ultimately not committed; n = 117). Consistent with legal language for SVP commitment, binary and multinomial regression analyses revealed risk scores predicted SVP commitment recommendations in addition to some historical factors (e.g., psychiatric history, never being married, prior sex offenses). For those recommended for commitment, prior sexual offenses predicted ultimate commitment. Those nearly committed had significantly higher sexual recidivism rates than others who were not committed; however, these recidivism rates were still low (11.5%). Findings suggest evaluators’ SVP decisions incorporate risk data and follow empirically supported trends; however, the observed recidivism rates of a subset of those SVP commitment appears to target suggests SVP commitment’s potential for reducing sexual recidivism effectively and efficiently appears to have a low ceiling.

“See this Empty Cage now Corrode”

Our sexually violent predator (SVP) laws are a miserable failure. We suggest a turn to international human rights law (IHR) as a source of rights for this population, and consider this matter from the perspective of comparative law. Many nations have enacted laws that both mirror and contradict early developments in United States jurisprudence, but there, challenges to community containment and preventive detention laws have been more successful when based upon IHR law. Also, registry notification is generally far more limited, and details are usually confined solely to police agencies. We must consider laws and court decisions from other nations when implementing US law reform in this area. In Part I, we consider the implications of IHR law, and assess how realistic it is that such law be embraced by domestic jurisdictions in dealing with relevant cases. We also consider the human rights issues and violations that have resulted from domestic enactment of International Megan’s Law. In Part II, we apply comparative law in an effort to determine how other nations have struggled with some of the basic issues that have been focused on by domestic jurisdictions since the Supreme Court’s decision in Kansas v. Hendricks (1997). In Part III, we assess the application of therapeutic jurisprudence (TJ) to the legal and human rights issues discussed prior, in an effort to determine whether other nations have more successfully implemented TJ principles to combat some of the seemingly-intractable problems raised in SVP cases. We conclude by offering suggestions for US-based policymakers.