Prediction of acute appendicitis among patients with undifferentiated abdominal pain at emergency department

Background Early screening and accurately identifying Acute Appendicitis (AA) among patients with undifferentiated symptoms associated with appendicitis during their emergency visit will improve patient safety and health care quality. The aim of the study was to compare models that predict AA among patients with undifferentiated symptoms at emergency visits using both structured data and free-text data from a national survey. Methods We performed a secondary data analysis on the 2005-2017 United States National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) data to estimate the association between emergency department (ED) patients with the diagnosis of AA, and the demographic and clinical factors present at ED visits during a patient’s ED stay. We used binary logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models incorporating natural language processing (NLP) to predict AA diagnosis among patients with undifferentiated symptoms. Results Among the 40,441 ED patients with assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes of AA and appendicitis-related symptoms between 2005 and 2017, 655 adults (2.3%) and 256 children (2.2%) had AA. For the LR model identifying AA diagnosis among adult ED patients, the c-statistic was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69–0.75) for structured variables only, 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69–0.75) for unstructured variables only, and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.76–0.80) when including both structured and unstructured variables. For the LR model identifying AA diagnosis among pediatric ED patients, the c-statistic was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.79–0.89) for including structured variables only, 0.78 (95% CI: 0.72–0.84) for unstructured variables, and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.83–0.91) when including both structured and unstructured variables. The RF method showed similar c-statistic to the corresponding LR model. Conclusions We developed predictive models that can predict the AA diagnosis for adult and pediatric ED patients, and the predictive accuracy was improved with the inclusion of NLP elements and approaches.

First report of rapid, non-invasive, and reagent-free detection of malaria through the skin of patients with a beam of infrared light

We describe the first application of the Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to detect Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria parasites through the skin of malaria positive and negative human subjects. NIRS is a rapid, non-invasive and reagent free technique which involves rapid interaction of a beam of light with a biological sample to produce diagnostic signatures in seconds. We used a handheld, miniaturized spectrometer to shine NIRS light on the ear, arm and finger of P. falciparum (n=7) and P. vivax (n=20) positive people and malaria negative individuals (n=33) in a malaria endemic setting in Brazil. Supervised machine learning algorithms for predicting the presence of malaria were applied to predict malaria infection status in independent individuals (n=12). Separate machine learning algorithms for differentiating P. falciparum from P. vivax infected subjects were developed using spectra from the arm and ear of P. falciparum and P. vivax (n=108) and the resultant model predicted infection in spectra of their fingers (n=54).NIRS non-invasively detected malaria positive and negative individuals that were excluded from the model with 100% sensitivity, 83% specificity and 92% accuracy (n=12) with spectra collected from the arm. Moreover, NIRS also correctly differentiated P. vivax from P. falciparum positive individuals with a predictive accuracy of 93% (n=54). These findings are promising but further work on a larger scale is needed to address several gaps in knowledge and establish the full capacity of NIRS as a non-invasive diagnostic tool for malaria. It is recommended that the tool is further evaluated in multiple epidemiological and demographic settings where other factors such as age, mixed infection and skin colour can be incorporated into predictive algorithms to produce more robust models for universal diagnosis of malaria.

Triage by PAX1 and ZNF582 methylation in women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3: a multicenter case-control study

Background The colposcopy-conization inconsistency is common in women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3). No adequate method has been reported to identify the final pathology of conization. In this study, we explored the ability of PAX1 and ZNF582 methylation to predict the pathological outcome of conization in advance. Methods This was a multicenter study and included 277 histologically confirmed CIN3 women who underwent cold knife conization (CKC) from January 2019 to December 2020. The methylation levels of PAX1 (PAX1m) and ZNF582 (ZNF582 m) were determined by quantitative methylation specific PCR (qMSP) and expressed in ΔCp. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate predictive accuracy. Results The final pathological results in 48 (17.33%) patients were inflammation or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL), 190 (68.59%) were high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) and 39 (14.08%) were squamous cervical cancer (SCC). PAX1 m and ZNF582 m increased as lesions progressed from inflammation/LSIL, HSIL to SCC. PAX1 and ZNF582 methylation yielded better prediction performance compared to common screening strategies, whether individually or combined. ΔCpZNF582 ≥19.18). A 6.53-fold increase in SCC risk was observed in patients with elevated ZNF582 methylation (ΔCpZNF582 < 7.09). Conclusion DNA Methylation would be an alternative screening method to triage and predict the final outcome of conization of the CIN3 cases.

Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate risk of acute pulmonary embolism in deep vein thrombosis patients

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), clinically presenting as deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE). Not all DVT patients carry the same risk of developing acute pulmonary embolism (APE). To develop and validate a prediction model to estimate risk of APE in DVT patients combined with past medical history, clinical symptoms, physical signs, and the sign of the electrocardiogram. We analyzed data from a retrospective cohort of patients who were diagnosed as symptomatic VTE from 2013 to 2018 (n = 1582). Among them, 122 patients were excluded. All enrolled patients confirmed by pulmonary angiography or computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) and compression venous ultrasonography. Using the LASSO and logistics regression, we derived a predictive model with 16 candidate variables to predict the risk of APE and completed internal validation. Overall, 52.9% patients had DVT + APE (773 vs 1460), 47.1% patients only had DVT (687 vs 1460). The APE risk prediction model included one pre-existing disease or condition (respiratory failure), one risk factors (infection), three symptoms (dyspnea, hemoptysis and syncope), five signs (skin cold clammy, tachycardia, diminished respiration, pulmonary rales and accentuation/splitting of P2), and six ECG indicators (SIQIIITIII, right axis deviation, left axis deviation, S1S2S3, T wave inversion and Q/q wave), of which all were positively associated with APE. The ROC curves of the model showed AUC of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.77–0.82) and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76–0.84) in the training set and testing set. The model showed good predictive accuracy (calibration slope, 0.83 and Brier score, 0.18). Based on a retrospective single-center population study, we developed a novel prediction model to identify patients with different risks for APE in DVT patients, which may be useful for quickly estimating the probability of APE before obtaining definitive test results and speeding up emergency management processes.

A Novel Machine Learning Algorithm Combined With Multivariate Analysis for the Prognosis of Renal Collecting Duct Carcinoma

ObjectivesTo investigate the clinical and non-clinical characteristics that may affect the prognosis of patients with renal collecting duct carcinoma (CDC) and to develop an accurate prognostic model for this disease.MethodsThe characteristics of 215 CDC patients were obtained from the U.S. National Cancer Institute’s surveillance, epidemiology and end results database from 2004 to 2016. Univariate Cox proportional hazard model and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to compare the impact of different factors on overall survival (OS). 10 variables were included to establish a machine learning (ML) model. Model performance was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and calibration plots for predictive accuracy and decision curve analysis (DCA) were obtained to estimate its clinical benefits.ResultsThe median follow-up and survival time was 16 months during which 164 (76.3%) patients died. 4.2, 32.1, 50.7 and 13.0% of patients were histological grade I, II, III, and IV, respectively. At diagnosis up to 61.9% of patients presented with a pT3 stage or higher tumor, and 36.7% of CDC patients had metastatic disease. 10 most clinical and non-clinical factors including M stage, tumor size, T stage, histological grade, N stage, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, age at diagnosis, surgery and the geographical region where the care delivered was either purchased or referred and these were allocated 95, 82, 78, 72, 49, 38, 36, 35, 28 and 21 points, respectively. The points were calculated by the XGBoost according to their importance. The XGBoost models showed the best predictive performance compared with other algorithms. DCA showed our models could be used to support clinical decisions in 1-3-year OS models.ConclusionsOur ML models had the highest predictive accuracy and net benefits, which may potentially help clinicians to make clinical decisions and follow-up strategies for patients with CDC. Larger studies are needed to better understand this aggressive tumor.

Prediction of FRCM–Concrete Bond Strength with Machine Learning Approach

Fibre-reinforced cement mortar (FRCM) has been widely utilised for the repair and restoration of building structures. The bond strength between FRCM and concrete typically takes precedence over the mechanical parameters. However, the bond behaviour of the FRCM–concrete interface is complex. Due to several failure modes, the prediction of bond strength is difficult to forecast. In this paper, effective machine learning models were employed in order to accurately predict the FRCM–concrete bond strength. This article employed a database of 382 test results available in the literature on single-lap and double-lap shear experiments on FRCM–concrete interfacial bonding. The compressive strength of concrete, width of concrete block, FRCM elastic modulus, thickness of textile layer, textile width, textile bond length, and bond strength of FRCM–concrete interface have been taken into consideration with popular machine learning models. The paper estimates the predictive accuracy of different machine learning models for estimating the FRCM–concrete bond strength and found that the GPR model has the highest accuracy with an R-value of 0.9336 for interfacial bond strength prediction. This study can be utilising in the estimation of bond strength to minimise the experimentation cost in minimum time.

Using deep learning to predict ideology from facial photographs: Expressions, beauty, and extra-facial information

Deep learning techniques can use common public data such as facial photographs to predict sensitive personal information, but little is known about what information contributes to the predictive success of these techniques. This lack of knowledge limits both the public’s ability to protect against revealing unintended information as well as the scientific utility of deep learning results. We combine convolutional neural networks, heat maps, facial expression coding, and classification of identifiable features such as masculinity and attractiveness in our study of political ideology in 3323 Danes. Predictive accuracy from the neural network was 61% in each gender. Model-predicted ideology correlated with aspects of both facial expressions (happiness vs neutrality) and morphology (specifically, attractiveness in females). Heat maps highlighted the informativeness of areas both on and off the face, pointing to methodological refinements and the need for future research to better understand the significance of certain facial areas.

Developing a prediction model to estimate the true burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalised children in Western Australia

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity, however there is no systematic testing in children hospitalised with respiratory symptoms. Therefore, current RSV incidence likely underestimates the true burden. We used probabilistically linked perinatal, hospital, and laboratory records of 321,825 children born in Western Australia (WA), 2000–2012. We generated a predictive model for RSV positivity in hospitalised children aged < 5 years. We applied the model to all hospitalisations in our population-based cohort to determine the true RSV incidence, and under-ascertainment fraction. The model’s predictive performance was determined using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. From 321,825 hospitalisations, 37,784 were tested for RSV (22.8% positive). Predictors of RSV positivity included younger admission age, male sex, non-Aboriginal ethnicity, a diagnosis of bronchiolitis and longer hospital stay. Our model showed good predictive accuracy (AUROC: 0.87). The respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 58.4%, 92.2%, 68.6% and 88.3%. The predicted incidence rates of hospitalised RSV for children aged < 3 months was 43.7/1000 child-years (95% CI 42.1–45.4) compared with 31.7/1000 child-years (95% CI 30.3–33.1) from laboratory-confirmed RSV admissions. Findings from our study suggest that the true burden of RSV may be 30–57% higher than current estimates.

Diagnostic and predictive accuracy of anti-mullerian hormone for ovarian function after chemotherapy in premenopausal women with early breast cancer

Purpose Accurate diagnosis and prediction of loss of ovarian function after chemotherapy for premenopausal women with early breast cancer (eBC) is important for future fertility and clinical decisions regarding the need for subsequent adjuvant ovarian suppression. We have investigated the value of anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) as serum biomarker for this. Methods AMH was measured in serial blood samples from 206 premenopausal women aged 40–45 years with eBC, before and at intervals after chemotherapy. The diagnostic accuracy of AMH for loss of ovarian function at 30 months after chemotherapy and the predictive value for that of AMH measurement at 6 months were analysed. Results Undetectable AMH showed a high diagnostic accuracy for absent ovarian function at 30 months with AUROC 0.89 (96% CI 0.84–0.94, P < 0.0001). PPV of undetectable AMH at 6 months for a menopausal estradiol level at 30 months was 0.77. In multivariate analysis age, pre-treatment AMH and FSH, and taxane treatment were significant predictors, and combined with AMH at 6 months, gave AUROC of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86–0.94), with PPV 0.79 for loss of ovarian function at 30 months. Validation by random forest models with 30% data retained gave similar results. Conclusions AMH is a reliable diagnostic test for lack of ovarian function after chemotherapy in women aged 40–45 with eBC. Early analysis of AMH after chemotherapy allows identification of women who will not recover ovarian function with good accuracy. These analyses will help inform treatment decisions regarding adjuvant endocrine therapy in women who were premenopausal before starting chemotherapy.

Comparison of GRACE and TIMI risk scores in the prediction of in-hospital and long-term outcomes among East Asian non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients

Background Risk stratification in non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) determines the intervention time. Limited study compared two risk scores, the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores in the current East Asian NSTEMI patients. Methods This retrospective observational study consecutively collected patients in a large academic hospital between 01/01 and 11/01/2017 and followed for 4 years. Patients were scored by TIMI and GRACE scores on hospital admission. In-hospital endpoints were defined as the in-hospital composite event, including mortality, re-infarction, heart failure, stroke, cardiac shock, or resuscitation. Long-term outcomes were all-cause mortality and cardiac mortality in 4-year follow-up. Results A total of 232 patients were included (female 29.7%, median age 67 years), with a median follow-up of 3.7 years. GRACE score grouped most patients (45.7%) into high risk, while TIMI grouped the majority (61.2%) into medium risk. Further subgrouping the TIMI medium group showed that half (53.5%) of the TIMI medium risk population was GRACE high risk (≥ 140). Compared to TIMI medium group + GRACE < 140 subgroup, the TIMI medium + GRACE high-risk (≥ 140) subgroup had a significantly higher in-hospital events (39.5% vs. 9.1%, p < 0.05), long-term all-cause mortality (22.2% vs. 0% p < 0.001) and cardiac death (11.1% vs. 0% p = 0.045) in 4-year follow-up. GRACE risk scores showed a better predictive ability than TIMI risk scores both for in-hospital and long-term outcomes. (AUC of GRACE vs. TIMI, In-hospital: 0.82 vs. 0.62; long-term mortality: 0.89 vs. 0.68; long-term cardiac mortality: 0.91 vs. 0.67, all p < 0.05). Combined use of the two risk scores reserved both the convenience of scoring and the predictive accuracy. Conclusion GRACE showed better predictive accuracy than TIMI in East Asian NSTEMI patients in both in-hospital and long-term outcomes. The sequential use of TIMI and GRACE scores provide an easy and promising discriminative tool in predicting outcomes in NSTEMI East Asian patients.